Derby Trail Forums - Is Haskin joking?

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Meet up for a beer in toga when I get there for the Travers... We got off on a bad foot here and I'd like to buy you a beer to sooth over any ill will.

I give Haskin a lot of credit for being somewhat creative and not just landing on one of the 2-3 favorites.

Mostly, I give him credit for a write up devoid of strings of Speed Figures.

Quote:

Originally Posted by jms62

Here is the deal.. Haskin knows more about horses and racing than most on this thread combined. He was getting dissed. I simply pointed out that the last 2 years he has had some observations during derby week on training that helped sway me back onto horses that I was considering tossing out at the top of my ticket thats all. These juveniles than proceeded to assume that my entire source of handicapping was based on what Steve said... They also bashed my thoughts on an immediate throw out of the juvenile champ (cept last year) irrespective of the fact that it worked some 20 odd imes in a row. There are some that basically simply attack every post that is put on these boards it somehow validates who they are. My fault for getting into a pissing contest. I'm done on the topic.

That's the way you made it sound, dude. Take it easy.

Quote:

Originally Posted by SentToStud

I give Haskin a lot of credit for being somewhat creative and not just landing on one of the 2-3 favorites.

Mostly, I give him credit for a write up devoid of strings of Speed Figures.

that was my thought. I don't get what the big issue people have with his list is all about. especially in a year like this. chaos may rule the day in which case some out-of-the-box thinking might be in order. year in year out this race is unlike any other and I'm not aware of any derby guru's on here. sure we all have our strongly held opinions beforehand, knowing full well that we could be all wet come D day.

You don't think there are far more creative horses who will be far bigger prices than Monba?

People who think he won't attract a good deal of money will probably be proven wrong.

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

You don't think there are far more creative horses who will be far bigger prices than Monba?

People who think he won't attract a good deal of money will probably be proven wrong.

I didn't catch the part where he says Monba is THE value play of the derby.

Ranking him #1 when all the meaningful preps have been run basically says that and more.

I just want to point out that I don't have anything against Mr. Haskin. I check his list every week and was just surprised with how much stock he put in the results of the Bluegrass. Wasn't really trying to bash him. . .

Quote:

Originally Posted by Split Rock

Love it Steve. Here is my take:

Kentucky Derby winner: COURT VISION
Kentucky Derby bust: MONBA

Court Vision
Positives:
1) Bred to be a monster. Gulch is one of my all time favorite sires (and runners). He is the sire of many, many good stakes runners, including 1995 Derby winner, Thunder Gulch (who, by the way, was out of a Storm Bird mare, like Court Vision and was out of the money in his final prep, the Blue Grass). The dam, Weekend Storm, is a full sister to the lengendary Summer Squall and a half sister to the equally legendary A. P. Indy. Now, those are some awesome bloodlines.

2) Bill Mott. This guy is way overdue.

3) Won a graded stakes at CD as a two year old. Might like the track.

4) Showed heart and guts winning both the IRQ and the REMSON as a two year old. Need to watch the replay to see what I mean.

5) Late kick. I know some will say he is slow but this horse seems to have a 5th gear that is on display very late in his races. Watch the replays and you will see what I mean.

Negatives:
1) Couldn't run down a blistering pace in the Wood and came home in a somewhat slow time.

MONBA
Postives: None

Negatives: Drug testing much tighter for the Derby so Mr. Pletcher will not likely be able to arrive on site with his bag of goodies. If unsure of this look at his Derby record. It's blantantly obvious. Year in and year out, the super trainers s*#t the bed in the Derby with can't miss runners. Hard to believe the Zito fiasco a few years ago.

Finally, for those sheep that can't look beyond the winners of the prep races (and believe me, that accounts for 85% of the betting public):

Derby winners that lost their final prep:
2007: Street Sense (2nd in Blue Grass)
2005: Giacomo (off the board in SA Derby)
2001: Monarchos (2nd in Wood)
1999: Charasmatic (off the board in SA Derby)
1998: Real Quiet (2nd in SA Derby)
1997: Silver Charm (2nd in SA Derby)
1995: Thunder Gulch (off the board in Blue Grass)
1994: Go for Gin (off the board in Florida Derby)
1993: Sea Hero (off the board in Blue Grass)
1992: Lil E Tee (2nd in Arkansas Derby)
1990: Unbridled (3rd in Blue Grass)

5 of last 18 (28%) Derby winners missed the board in their last prep before the Derby.

.........bag of goodies:rolleyes:

Quote:

Originally Posted by Split Rock

Drug testing much tighter for the Derby so Mr. Pletcher will not likely be able to arrive on site with his bag of goodies. If unsure of this look at his Derby record. It's blantantly obvious. Year in and year out, the super trainers s*#t the bed in the Derby with can't miss runners. Hard to believe the Zito fiasco a few years ago.

Am I the only one who isn't buying this?

Quote:

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Am I the only one who isn't buying this?

Especially since he listed Mott "being due" as one of Court Vision's positives.

Quote:

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Am I the only one who isn't buying this?

Simply put, NO.

Only one trainer gets to win the big dance each year, it just so happens that he hasnt won it. Yet.

And he still wins plenty of big races- Breeders' Cups, etc... How would Assmussen or Dutrow ever win the races they do if it was tougher to drug up their horses on the big days? Either these guys use things that aren't being detected or their top stock just doesn't need the stuff. . .

Make no mistake though, Pletcher will win the Derby at some point in his career. I know, that's really going out on a limb...

Quote:

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Agree. Not to mention that Pletcher won the Belmont with R2R just last year. Thats not a big day in racing where his 'bag of goodies' could be detected, is it???? :rolleyes:

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Ranking him #1 when all the meaningful preps have been run basically says that and more.

he said he picked the horse early on, and is sticking with him now and gave his reasons which did not include value. Monba wouldn't be my pick on top, but I can envision why someone might want to back him.

Odd though that your knock on Haskin is based on value. Didn't you announce that you're going with Pyro? For me he is a low value play because you're going to get perhaps only single digit odds in the KD coming off of that horrible performance on a horse that to me its really not clear just how good he is even on his best day/surface. Before the BG I considered him in the group of more likely winners, but I'm not simply going to draw a line through that race as many are advocating. That assumes way too much imo.

Quote:

Originally Posted by jms62

Meet up for a beer in toga when I get there for the Travers... We got off on a bad foot here and I'd like to buy you a beer to sooth over any ill will.

Hey I hate your picks!!!.............what about a beer?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Hey I hate your picks!!!.............what about a beer?

didn't a wise man say beer was the cause of and solution to all of lifes problems?

oh wait, that was Homer Simpson.