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-   -   Any respect for Pyro now? (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=21423)

Danzig 04-07-2008 06:06 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ateamstupid
The three-quarter fraction is irrelevant because after running :22.46 and :46.07, War Pass was already a sitting duck. He could've run 1:12 and change for three quarters and it would've made minimal difference.

The first quarter fraction for speed horses, especially in route races, is most often the telltale split for what he or she will be able to do late. After War Pass ran :22.46 around a turn neck and neck with a rabbit, Court Vision had all the help he needed.

A faster third quarter in the Derby isn't going to make the difference between an embarrassing performance like that and a win.

You honestly think Pyro wouldn't have won the Wood on Saturday?

i know you're asking jcs, but i can't think of a race this year that pyro couldn't have won.

NTamm1215 04-07-2008 06:13 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
Do you really think Recapturetheglory could keep up with Big Brown or War Pass for a 1/4 of a mile, no matter how hard he's sent?
You're actually getting at a good point. Recapturetheglory was simply the quickest horse in a race that was completely devoid of early speed. He was allowed to dawdle in the early stages and had plenty left when the running started. However, it seems clear that if Recapturetheglory runs what seems to be his typical 1/4 and 1/2 mile then he will most likely find himself well off the pace. If he had a craftier jockey than ET Baird one might actually think he could get a good stalking spot in a race that is certainly going to have a fast pace. However, the likelihood of him stalking and pouncing effectively is extraordinarily low.

NT

Travis Stone 04-07-2008 06:14 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
Do you really think Recapturetheglory could keep up with Big Brown or War Pass for a 1/4 of a mile, no matter how hard he's sent?
Whether or not he can doesn't matter, it's that he'll try.

hockey2315 04-07-2008 06:19 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Travis Stone
Whether or not he can doesn't matter, it's that he'll try.
Agreed- That's all Baird knows how to do.

jcs11204 04-07-2008 06:22 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
He's always been a rat. His Remsen was extremely overrated and he has shown zero this year that could make a reasonable person think he can run a race that has him on the board in the Derby. How much faster do you think they are going to go? Where is all of this speed coming from? He had everything in his favor on Saturday and he had nothing when it mattered. What are you seeing that I am not? What is his excuse for not running 1-2 with everything in his favor on Saturday?
you guys are making it like he ran up the track or something, and the derby will be more like 22 45.2 1.09.3
rather the 22.2 46.1 1.11

in my mind that is a big difference

hockey2315 04-07-2008 06:24 PM
Court Vision is TERRIBLE. He has NO shot to win the derby.

jcs11204 04-07-2008 06:27 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by hockey2315
Court Vision is TERRIBLE. He has NO shot to win the derby.
we shall see
what kind of odds do you think im going to get ?

Travis Stone 04-07-2008 06:28 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
Won't he have to suddenly get a lot quicker than he has been so far? I don't think the pace is going to be quite as hot as is being suggested.
Provided neither connections are going to change tactics in the Derby, I see War Pass and Big Brown as being one dimensional. Both are also very fast. They could settle into a rhythm, which can happen when there are two horses on the lead as opposed to a battle, but so far neither have shown an ability to do that with another horse alongside of them. So if they do settle down a bit, then a horse like Recapturetheglory becomes a pace factor with their stated of intentions of going to the front.

But in the end, I just can't see Big Brown and War Pass on the front-end going :47 seconds to the half.

jcs11204 04-07-2008 06:30 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Travis Stone
Provided neither connections are going to change tactics in the Derby, I see War Pass and Big Brown as being one dimensional. Both are also very fast. They could settle into a rhythm, which can happen when there are two horses on the lead as opposed to a battle, but so far neither have shown an ability to do that with another horse alongside of them. So if they do settle down a bit, then a horse like Recapturetheglory becomes a pace factor with their stated of intentions of going to the front.

But in the end, I just can't see Big Brown and War Pass on the front-end going :47 seconds to the half.
no one can except horsey.... i mean i keep saying 45 and change, but really they could go crazy 44 and change or 45 flat.

jcs11204 04-07-2008 06:30 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by hockey2315
Court Vision is TERRIBLE. He has NO shot to win the derby.
i wonder what the colonel john-court vision exacta will be paying.

Danzig 04-07-2008 06:31 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jcs11204
we shall see
what kind of odds do you think im going to get ?
what does it matter? the trick is to get odds on a horse that can win.

jcs11204 04-07-2008 06:35 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
Didn't Big Brown sit outside of the pacesetter in his allowance win? He had to be on the lead last time with that post.
ok then he sits, someone goes with war pass, they wont let the 2 yr old champ go out and go 23-48, seeya

Travis Stone 04-07-2008 06:36 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
Didn't Big Brown sit outside of the pacesetter in his allowance win? He had to be on the lead last time with that post.
Good point. I think he's most effective having good pace presence, but if they do settle a bit, then yea, the pace could slowdown a touch. So many jocks are War Emblem-shy though. When someone tries to back-down in the Kentucky Derby, they react and take it to 'em. It's really difficult to win the roses wire-to-wire.

SOREHOOF 04-07-2008 07:38 PM
Totally agree D Hoss. I guess I don't see Big Brown as the need the lead speedball everyone else seems too. War pass should hold on longer if this is truly a weak crop. Bob Black Jack reminds me of Hard Spun more than the rest of these.

SOREHOOF 04-07-2008 07:39 PM
Hard Spun had more stamina in his pedigree but funny things happen on the track.

SOREHOOF 04-07-2008 07:40 PM
Especially on the 1'st sat. in May!!

Indian Charlie 04-07-2008 07:55 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jcs11204
i wonder what the colonel john-court vision exacta will be paying.
$0.00


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