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-   -   How good is Big Brown? (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=21244)

Danzig 03-29-2008 06:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by slotdirt
Nothing like Derby prep time, where every horse who wins a race turns into the next Triple Crown winner...

that's true--happens every time a prep is run.


well, maybe not every. i don't think anyone jumped on the visionaire wagon a few weeks back.

cmorioles 03-29-2008 06:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
Yeah about that much time. Maybe I'm off and Electrify just freaked, but it does seem interesting.

I posted this elsewhere, I'll do it here. The track was "suped" before the Fla Derby, not after:

Big Brown probably ran low 100s again, and the rest just stunk.

The raw figures for the three 9f races, pace and speed (projection):

R9: 92, 89 (I project this one as about a 98, so the track would be 9 slow)
R10: 128, 120 (I project this one as about 105, so suddenly the track is 15 fast?)
R12: 128, 123 (project at 110, so 13 fast)

Nice job by the super.

fpsoxfan 03-29-2008 06:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cmorioles
I posted this elsewhere, I'll do it here. The track was "suped" before the Fla Derby, not after:

Big Brown probably ran low 100s again, and the rest just stunk.

The raw figures for the three 9f races, pace and speed (projection):

R9: 92, 89 (I project this one as about a 98, so the track would be 9 slow)
R10: 128, 120 (I project this one as about 105, so suddenly the track is 15 fast?)
R12: 128, 123 (project at 110, so 13 fast)

Nice job by the super.

Do you really believe the shiat you are peddling?

cmorioles 03-29-2008 06:13 PM

What is it you don't believe? All I'm saying is the track speed basically became 25 points faster between the Bonnie Miss and the Florida Derby.

fpsoxfan 03-29-2008 06:15 PM

What are you trying to say? Don't you think this is a little pre-mature with this souped up theory?

ArlJim78 03-29-2008 06:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fpsoxfan
What are you trying to say? Don't you think this is a little pre-mature with this souped up theory?

no, the fractions or final times aren't going to change.

Cajungator26 03-29-2008 06:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
I only saw the race live, but I thought Smooth Air came from well off the pace.

Yeah, Big Brown had the lead wire to wire... :confused:

The Indomitable DrugS 03-29-2008 06:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fpsoxfan
What are you trying to say? Don't you think this is a little pre-mature with this souped up theory?

If he believes the times posted are accurate....than no, it's not pre-mature.

Riot 03-29-2008 06:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
I only saw the race live, but I thought Smooth Air came from well off the pace.

Smooth Air started his move just after going into the turn. IMO he'll be able to sustain a good long move in and out around traffic, if need be, on Derby Day.

Live as in at Gulfstream? If so - my hero! Did you check out BB feet? I want to know if he is currently wearing glue-on shoes or not. And I want to know if he pulled a nail or something came half-loose when he drifted out in the stretch (or not). And I want to know what his feet look like tomorrow morning :D (Steve? Ask on ATR Monday? Pleeze? )

Hickory Hill Hoff 03-29-2008 06:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fpsoxfan
I thought for sure he'd fold in the stretch. I had a 2-12-all triple
and a 2-12-all-all dime super.

Had the "2" to win, also liked Zito's runner.....12 wasn't on any of my tickets.

Danzig 03-29-2008 06:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mumtaz
Smooth Air started his move just after going into the turn. IMO he'll be able to sustain a good long move in and out around traffic, if need be, on Derby Day.

Live as in at Gulfstream? If so - my hero! Did you check out BB feet? I want to know if he is currently wearing glue-on shoes or not. And I want to know if he pulled a nail or something came half-loose when he drifted out in the stretch (or not). And I want to know what his feet look like tomorrow morning :D (Steve? Ask on ATR Monday? Pleeze? )

they talked about the glue ons...not sure tho if he wore them in the race. and he did seem to get rubber legged at the end, but who wouldn't after running that time?

Coach Pants 03-29-2008 06:20 PM

Well it's definitely Miller Time in upstate.

fpsoxfan 03-29-2008 06:20 PM

I guess that's the way I took it. I get the feeling that there are people that are trying to discredit this horse right off the bat. I saw the same thing everyone else did and that was impressive. I haven't been able to say that yet this year.

cmorioles 03-29-2008 06:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fpsoxfan
What are you trying to say? Don't you think this is a little pre-mature with this souped up theory?

No, it is obvious. I'm still saying Big Brown ran about a 105 or so Beyer, which is way better than any other Derby prep this year.

The alternatives are the Bonnie Miss was won by open lengths in a runaway by a horse earning a 70 Beyer, or Big Brown AND Electrify just ran about 130 Beyers. Something happened to the track.

fpsoxfan 03-29-2008 06:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Coach Pants
Well it's definitely Miller Time in upstate.

Well, we're getting there.


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