You would think that would be true, but apparently even an experienced handicapper like "the_fat_man" was completely unaware of this bias before reading this thread, and stunningly didn't think anyone should even care about post position in a 9f race at Gulfstream!

Hopefully there will be a lot of people who feel that same way and are betting this race on Saturday.

Zito's runners caught a break.

Cool Coal Man got post 1 in the 12 runner Fountain Of Youth and worked out a perfect trip.

For the Florida Derby, Zito runners draw posts 1 and 3.

If this was a normal horse, I would say that he had no chance based on the data. However, there is nothing in this field that I think is good enough in this particular spot to beat this horse despite the bad post...he is much faster out of the gate than the majority of these, and should be able to establish a descent position going into the first turn. This horse also does not need the lead as he showed in his last. He earned a 104 BSF last out (we know what the rest of the field's figures look like) and will only get better. He is bred to run all day long. This is one of those races that you sit back, enjoy, and hope the favorite wins so that you can bet against him in the Derby.

Quote from Dutrow
 

Regarding Big Brown and the 12 post, from drf.com:

"I like it," he said via telephone. "He's not going to get in trouble in the race. As long as he breaks good, I think it's going to be to our advantage. It eliminates any chance of him getting into trouble. He'll get a clean trip, which is half the battle going in.

"Look, I wish he was outside in a seven-horse field, but we're going to take it. We're not going to cry. We get to play the intimidator from out there, instead of being intimidated. We are ready, babe."

Chavez has a shot.

Now that is interesting--thanks for that info DaHoss.

Does anyone scratch their head with Big Brown being the m/l fav at 3-1 given the history of the outisde posts at Gulfstream going 1 1/8? I wonder why Elysium Fields is not the fav. Oh well, be interesting to see the odds at post.

well, at least they have a ready made excuse in case of a loss. i would also remind everyone what we just saw happen with the previously undefeated derby favorite. horses can overcome some things. BUT can a lightly raced horse overcome their peers, and a very poor post draw that hasn't produced a winner at this distance in four years?

No. Big Brown has monster figures and wins. The morning line may even be too high.. He'll be 2/1.

I don't think it is all that unusual. The outside post certainly hurts his chances considerably, but I think everyone would agree that it doesn't completely ruin his chances. If he actually turns out to be a very special horse, he might still win.
Also, regarding the M/L, as I know you already know, this just reflects what the linemaker thinks the public will do. Many people that will be playing this particular race don't have a clue about the numbers of outside posts at that track.

It isn't THAT monsterous, I haven't seen them yet but BB ran a 1 last out according to Bloodhorse, and my guess is that Elysium Fields ran pretty close to that, maybe the 2 range, I could be completely wrong though, we will know tonight when they are put out

My feeling is that while he certainly could win, he was likely going to be overbet in this race regardless of post position. The fact that he drew post twelve makes me think that he will be overbet even more.

Opposite in regards to the post, people will pull back now because of it. Bettors are not stupid, at least the weekend warriors are not, they know it is impossible to win from out there.

I am not too confident in him running, regardless of what is said to the media. I don't want to get my hopes up, because like you, I am tossing out of the first two spots, and I doubt I am playing the tri.

The horse is obviously good, but this post crushes his chances of winning, and honestly, if he does win, I am ok with that also because he will be the Derby favorite then, and he will have to run so huge to win this race, that he will be gutted.

BB might be the horse that just keeps on giving because I crushed him in his opener at Toga, and I plan on playing against him on Saturday and this saturday isn't terribly important because the result will benefit me either way. He wins and I get to toss the derby favorite with confidence, he loses I probably hit the race.

If he does run, and run poorly, I wouldn't be surprised to see them run in the Lexington, or even the Holy Bull closing weekend at Gulfstream.

I was looking at a Florida Derby thread on another board and the consensus was Tomcito was going to win. Will this board ever reach that level of crazy?

That's exactly my plan. Take a stand against him this weekend and if he does happen to win then I've probably found my Derby horse.

So if he wins, you like him to win the Derby? that is exact opposite that I said? :confused: :confused: