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-   -   For Blackthroat & Big Brown (104 BSF) fans (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=20558)

blackthroatedwind 03-05-2008 08:24 PM
I'll say it again.....he is being pointed for the Blue Grass.

blackthroatedwind 03-05-2008 08:26 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by philcski
I figure he's 2-1 to finish in the top 3 of the FL Derby, which will likely be their next objective, and probably enough earnings to make the cut (usually right around $120k). Obviously he's got some issues... but this is IEAH. They're DESPERATE for a Derby starter. Let's say hypothetically he makes it into the gate off an exacta finish in the Fl Derby... how many horses would be lower odds? 4-6, maybe? We're desperate for some talent right now- outside of War Pass, have any of these shown the brilliance required to win the Derby? Cool Coal Man is OK, Pyro is OK, the rest of them, not so much...

Let me also add......I would love to give you 2-1 that he runs in the top 3 in either of those races......and you lose if he runs in neither.

Do you really think a horse that debuts on Labor Day and takes six months to make his second career start is 2-1 to make any race in a month?

blackthroatedwind 03-05-2008 08:28 PM
Well, being that they publicly said before today's race they were hoping to run in the Blue Grass, and then said it again after today's race, I will say he is being pointed for the Blue Grass.

Of course, I don't have a hotline to On.....I mean someone at IEAH...so I will have to trust the public comments for now.

philcski 03-05-2008 08:29 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
Let me also add......I would love to give you 2-1 that he runs in the top 3 in either of those races......and you lose if he runs in neither.

Do you really think a horse that debuts on Labor Day and takes six months to make his second career start is 2-1 to make any race in a month?
I would take 2-1 on him in either race to hit the board, yes... if I were sure he would make the gate. And I wholeheartedly agree the horse has issues, but remember who we are dealing with here- Dutrow (who could probably raise Lazarus) and IEAH (who are DESPERATE for a Derby starter). IF the horse is healthy, and maybe he is enough to make it two months, he's a legitimate contender.

I would bet everything I have that he doesn't make it past June, however.

GPK 03-05-2008 08:30 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
Well, being that they publicly said before today's race they were hoping to run in the Blue Grass, and then said it again after today's race, I will say he is being pointed for the Blue Grass.

Of course, I don't have a hotline to On.....I mean someone at IEAH...so I will have to trust the public comments for now.

You clearly need a facebook account.

philcski 03-05-2008 08:31 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by GPK
You clearly need a facebook account.
... and I need more pics like your avatar, who is that??

blackthroatedwind 03-05-2008 08:32 PM
I understand he may be under 2-1 to hit the board ( he will most likely pay less than $6 to show ) but even if he's 40% to hit the board, which I don't think, I'm not so sure he's even 40% to make either race realistically.

On your June bet....you'll have to find another bookmaker.

GPK 03-05-2008 08:32 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by philcski
... and I need more pics like your avatar, who is that??

the incredibly elegant Diane Lane.

philcski 03-05-2008 08:32 PM
Oh, and they'd be much wiser to go to the FL Derby, as 3 Derby spots are available versus 2 from the Blue Grass- not to mention the synthetic crap at KEE.

blackthroatedwind 03-05-2008 08:33 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by GPK
the incredibly elegant Diane Lane.

I assume you've seen " A Little Romance. "

Great scenes at Longchamp.

philcski 03-05-2008 08:33 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by GPK
the incredibly elegant Diane Lane.
:eek: isn't she like 45? MILF!!!

blackthroatedwind 03-05-2008 08:34 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by philcski
Oh, and they'd be much wiser to go to the FL Derby, as 3 Derby spots are available versus 2 from the Blue Grass- not to mention the synthetic crap at KEE.
I think his affinity to turf is probably coming into play. Another problem with putting all your eggs in the Florida Derby basket is what happens when you draw post 12.

philcski 03-05-2008 08:36 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
I think his affinity to turf is probably coming into play. Another problem with putting all your eggs in the Florida Derby basket is what happens when you draw post 12.
Would think the pedigree would lend to the poly but who knows with that stuff?

Draw post 12...scratch and wait two weeks?

GPK 03-05-2008 08:36 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by philcski
:eek: isn't she like 45? MILF!!!
and only getting better looking

GPK 03-05-2008 08:43 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
I assume you've seen " A Little Romance. "

Great scenes at Longchamp.

I haven't Andy. My film experience is not quite up to par with yours. I take it you recommend this one?

blackthroatedwind 03-05-2008 08:46 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by GPK
I haven't Andy. My film experience is not quite up to par with yours. I take it you recommend this one?
It's great. I think it's her first movie. She's maybe 14. Excellent movie. I saw it when I was a kid, it was my dream, Diane Lane falls in love with my equivalent.....a kid obsessed with the movies and the racetrack.

philcski 03-05-2008 08:49 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
It's great. I think it's her first movie. She's maybe 14. Excellent movie. I saw it when I was a kid, it was my dream, Diane Lane falls in love with my equivalent.....a kid obsessed with the movies and the racetrack.
We've found your weakness... Diane Lane :p

As for our bet... I'll buy you 3 beers at Siro's if Big Brown doesn't make a Derby prep and hit the board, you buy me 6 if he does. We have a trade?

philcski 03-05-2008 08:49 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cardus
And soon thereafter, he'd raze Lazarus.
... or run him the next day.


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