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-   -   Street Sense to skip Belmont (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=13748)

ARyan 05-31-2007 02:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by justindew
I think the REALLY sad thing is that modern horses aren't tough enough to run in all thre Triple Crown races, take two months off, and then begin a new campaign. By skipping the Belmont, Nafzger is essentially saying, "My horse can't run in the Belmont and still be compeititve two and a half months later in the Travers." That's what is sad.

Blame the breeders for that. That is where this starts. It is not toughness these horses lack, but the fact that breeders have been breeding for speed and not soundness.

ARyan 05-31-2007 02:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by todko
I think Nafzger and connections saw all they needed to see when Curlin came back and won. It's foolish to run against that horse again.

Thanks for the laugh.

Withers 05-31-2007 02:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by justindew
I think the REALLY sad thing is that modern horses aren't tough enough to run in all thre Triple Crown races, take two months off, and then begin a new campaign. By skipping the Belmont, Nafzger is essentially saying, "My horse can't run in the Belmont and still be compeititve two and a half months later in the Travers." That's what is sad.

I'm with you Justin -- couldn't agree more.

declansharbor 05-31-2007 02:12 PM

Taking into account what horses have done after winning the Belmont, I think it's in the best interest of the horse to sit this one out and get ready for the summer/fall campaign... What do people like to say?? Those who ignore history are bound to repeat it??

Withers 05-31-2007 02:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by todko
I think Nafzger and connections saw all they needed to see when Curlin came back and won. It's foolish to run against that horse again.

They -- at least Nafzger -- just about admitted as much when he said that it was clear that the Derby was just a learning experience for Curlin. Why run now against him, with a possibly tired SS, instead of waiting, especially when that means there is a chance that SS would never risk a second defeat by Curlin, i.e., if he doesn't make it back for the Travers or BC. At this point, Eclipse award strategies start weighing in. If SS lost to Curlin in the Belmont, he'd probably lose 3 YO status unless he did significantly better than him in the BC. But if Curlin wins the Belmont, and SS doesn't face him in the Travers and wins it, SS wins 3 YO, no? All probably silly conjectures, but I think SS's people want to make sure that he gets the Eclipse 3 YO award, do or die, and they don't want to do anything to jeopardize that. Curlin in the Belmont isn't looking appealing right now, not with a colt like SS that has a good chance of hanging once he hits the front in that long, long Belmont stretch...

Mortimer 05-31-2007 02:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bystander
It doesn't look slow in comparison to all his works. Obviously we've seen him working 5f more than we have 4f.

05/30/2007 CD 4F :49.00 Dirt Fast B
05/15/2007 CD 5F 1:00.00 Dirt Fast B
05/01/2007 CD 5F 1:01.00 Dirt Fast B
04/24/2007 CD 5F :59.00 Dirt Fast B
04/10/2007 CD 5F 1:04.00 Dirt Fast B
04/04/2007 CD 5F :58.40 Dirt Fast B
03/28/2007 PMM 4F :48.00 Dirt Fast B
03/14/2007 PMM 4F :51.00 Dirt Fast B
03/08/2007 PMM 5F 1:01.00 Dirt Fast H
03/04/2007 PMM 4F :47.00 Dirt Fast H

And according to DRF, sure looked OK to me-
"Over a fast track, Street Sense proceeded smoothly through splits of 12.80, 24.60, and 36.60 before hitting the wire in 49 and galloping out five furlongs in 1:01.80."



That was really greaaaaaaaat.

King Glorious 05-31-2007 03:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cardus
I read the bloodhorse.com's report, and according to what Nafzger said, Tafel and he chose the Travers over the Belmont. I doubt that anyone in this forum considers the former to be more important than the third leg of the Triple Crown. Again, by Nafzger's account, the Belmont is important to run in only if a horse has won the first two legs.

Also, since Street Sense's workout and good health did not affect the decision, why work him yesterday?

I disagree. I happen to feel that the Travers is a more important race than the Belmont. The Belmont is only really important when a horse is going for the TC. Look at the ratings and attendance difference when there is not a TC on the line. The Travers carries the same purse and grade as the Belmont does. And if I'm not mistaken, it's been around even longer. Plus, it's run during a more prestigious meet at a more prestigious track. Back in the older days, the Belmont had more significance because it was 12f. But in those days, there were other 12f races. I believe the Woodward was 12f and the JCGC was 16f. The Belmont served more of a purpose. U got a chance to see which 3yo's were going to be able to step up past 10f to be able to compete with the top older horses in the fall championship races at Belmont. But that's no longer the case. The 12f of the race have made it irrelevant as far as determining which 3yo's are the best. It's more important to know who's the best at distances that they contest the championship events at. These days, it's more important to know who's the best 10f horse, not 12f. Because of that, the Travers is a more important race to me.

lemoncrush 05-31-2007 03:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by declansharbor
Taking into account what horses have done after winning the Belmont, I think it's in the best interest of the horse to sit this one out and get ready for the summer/fall campaign... What do people like to say?? Those who ignore history are bound to repeat it??

This is what I've tried to say. It's a 12F race, and his 3rd race in 5 weeks.
Whether you're happy with it or not, the race loses some of its luster when the triple crown isn't on the line.
Running in the Belmont for the sole purpose to be "sportsmanlike" or to help gain interest in the sport instead of keeping the horse sound and ready for late summer/fall is a risk that his connections don't want to make. I can't blame them at all.

Hopefully we'll see Curlin and Street Sense hook up again sometime, but I'll still enjoy the Belmont without Street sense included.

slotdirt 05-31-2007 03:08 PM

The Travers is the most prestigious 3YO race outside the Triple Crown. There's no chance it's more prestigious than the Belmont. Zero.

King Glorious 05-31-2007 03:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cardus
Winning two-thirds of the Triple Crown would put significant distance between Street Sense and Curlin.

Let's say the Curlin wins the Belmont over a field that doesn't include Street Sense. Then he hits the sidelines for a break. Then let's say that Street Sense wins the Haskell and then they face each other in the Travers. The winner of the Travers would then be the leader of the division. Curlin winning the Belmont will only have him in the lead if he is to beat Street Sense again. If Curlin wins the Belmont and Street Sense beats him later for a 2-1 advantage heads up, how could Curlin have the lead?

The Indomitable DrugS 05-31-2007 03:14 PM

Hopefully this defection opens the door for Rags To Riches anyway.

Make no mistake though---everyone from the racing fans to the betting public wanted to see Street Sense run.

King Glorious 05-31-2007 03:23 PM

As a fan, I sure do. But as a realist, I understand what's going on. I may not like it but I know what the trends have become and I understand the reality. While there is never any guarantee of even the next day, I do think that for the long term, this gives Street Sense a better chance of having a summer/fall campaign than if he had ran. I have no doubt that he COULD run in the Belmont AND have a summer/fall campaign. I also believe that more horses SHOULD do that. But that doesn't change the fact that recently, more and more DON'T. To ignore that and keep saying what horses SHOULD be able to do is not recognizing what is going on.

Mortimer 05-31-2007 03:25 PM

Who is your favorite horsey...if I may so inquire?

King Glorious 05-31-2007 03:33 PM

Let me get this straight. U are saying Street Sense could have a 2-1 edge over Curlin in head to heads but Curlin would still win the title because he won a race Street Sense wasn't even in?

ARyan 05-31-2007 03:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by King Glorious
I disagree. I happen to feel that the Travers is a more important race than the Belmont. The Belmont is only really important when a horse is going for the TC. Look at the ratings and attendance difference when there is not a TC on the line. The Travers carries the same purse and grade as the Belmont does. And if I'm not mistaken, it's been around even longer. Plus, it's run during a more prestigious meet at a more prestigious track. Back in the older days, the Belmont had more significance because it was 12f. But in those days, there were other 12f races. I believe the Woodward was 12f and the JCGC was 16f. The Belmont served more of a purpose. U got a chance to see which 3yo's were going to be able to step up past 10f to be able to compete with the top older horses in the fall championship races at Belmont. But that's no longer the case. The 12f of the race have made it irrelevant as far as determining which 3yo's are the best. It's more important to know who's the best at distances that they contest the championship events at. These days, it's more important to know who's the best 10f horse, not 12f. Because of that, the Travers is a more important race to me.

The Travers is the oldest race in North America. Good post.

ARyan 05-31-2007 03:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cardus
There is no debate that the 12 furlongs is an archaic distance. It is still a substantial test and is worthy whether a Triple Crown is on the line or not. Though your remark about the drop off in attendance and ratings is correct, those numbers are sizeably better than the Travers' numbers. Seventy thousand people have shown up for a non-Triple Crown contended Belmont Stakes, and the race gets a few percentage points in the Neilsen ratings. What is the Travers' Neilsen? I tried to access NYRA's Media Guide without success, but I suspect that the Travers -- having been there multiple times -- does not routinely draw in the 70s, if at all.

http://www.nyra.com/Belmont/mediagui...orySection.pdf

Page 5


Not what you were looking for, but it does help out a bit.


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