You are exactly right, the "tight turns" at Pimlico is a myth. The major difference, obviously, is the difference between the Churchill/Pimlico turns and the far sweeping turns at Belmont. Not that I like him, but I think Jerry Bailey debunked this tight turns theory on the Preakness ESPN broadcast last May.

Flying First Class is IN

Teuflesberg and Starbase are OUT


Damn how many lengths did SS win the Derby by 50??? Before they have the draw we might see 6 horses in a race on the TC

Officially 7, but 9 expected..
 

1. Street Sense
2. Hard Spun
3. Curlin
4. King of the Roxy
5. Mint Slewlep
6. Xchanger
7. Flying First Class

A. C. P. West*
B. Chelokee*


*Expected but not definite..

From article CP West looks def even got Prado to ride him

Will confirm after workout.. Monday I think..

Homeboy in the avatar ran nicely today, and I don't mean you..

Officer Rocket
Forty Grams
Cobalt Blue
Summer Doldrums
Notional (still hurt, can remember what happened)
Belgravia (ran right a week before the Derby and stunk????)
Drums of Thunder
Xchanger
Bold Start
Unbridled Express
Holy Roman Emperor...

what happened to all these guys?

Retired!

Good / Bad
 

As a fan I am pumped. You know that Street Sense will be all out. This race is HUGE for him. Hard Spun is possibly stronger than ever. Curlin should see the race set up for him to unleash his talent. The others add spice particularly King of the Roxy.

As a handicapper, the Preakness will be a tough race. Seven or eight horses is harder than 20. You are going to have to much more fine in your wager than the Derby to make a profit. There are not going to be 4 or 5 big underlays that shouldn't hit the exacta.

Could easily be the big-3 in the Preakness trifecta.

FG-3rd LS Derby
CB-eating California grapes in wine country;)
SD-??? maybe being freshened for a summer campaign against lesser comp.
NOT-:eek:
BELG-I would guess he is in a nice barn at Ashford on Versailles Rd. already
DoT-Calder
Xc-Preakness bound
BS-pretty competent 1 turn mile type horse
UE-been away a while. I will ask Bernie tomorrow
HRE-???

Chelokee unlikely from Preakness


Who is pointed to the Sir Barton??

Chelokee
Starbase

Derby
 

Steve,

A couple days before the Kentucky Derby I printed off a few pages from the DT Forum and in that printing nine Derby Trailers predicted the top 5 or top 10finishers for the race. I threw out ##6-10 and gave a value of 5 points for horses picked to win, 4 for place, 3 for show, 2 for 4th and 1 for 5th and summed the total for each horse. I know it is a ridiculously simple methodology and that the sample size is absurdly small, but somehow there is wisdom in consensus. Check out the results below listed in descending order of consensus pick and showing from left right the consensus prediction, horse, horse's actual finish and difference between consensus prediction and finish in parentheses:

Predicted #1 Street Sense, Finish = Win (off by 0)
#2 Any Given Saturday, 8th (off by 6)
T#3 Hard Spun, Place (off by 1)
T#3 Curlin, Show (0)
#5 Scat Daddy, 18th (13)
#6 Nobiz, 10th (4)
#7 Tiago, 7th (0)
#8 Dominican, 11th (3)
#9 Sam P., 9th (0)
#10 Circular Quay, 6th (4)
#11 Zanjero, 12th (1)

Those were all the horses who received mention among the nine Derby Trailers from whom I had predictions. Street Sense was a strong consensus pick with 37 total points and Any Given Saturday finished second at 19. Curlin and Hard Spun were at 18.

Anyway, I thought that was pretty remarkable predicting for the gang of 9 hitting on 8 of the Top 10 finishers with only imawildandcrazyguy and Sedgefield not in the mix.

Rick

I'm no genius, or are I? -- Homer Simpson

hard spun ...... street sense will not get to the winner... king of the roxy runs big but cannot hang with the winner...

Your ever-evolving Preakness field...
 

Street Sense
Hard Spun
Curlin
Circular Quay*
King of the Roxy
Mint Slewlep
Xchanger
C. P. West
Flying First Class

*Possible

It would make sense. He should be a fresh horse, coming into the derby off of 8 weeks. Has Pletcher worked him since? If so, how long? That will determine if CQ will go or not...My guess is he goes, as TAP will be trying ever so hard to wipe away that 0-for.

If Johnny V makes his move little earlier this time. He could and should hit the board

Bykster,

Is that your 'ever-evolving field' or your prediction?

CQ just had a 4f work at Belmont today.

Date: May 14, 2007
Track: BELMONT PARK
Distance: Four Furlongs
Time: 48:44 Breezing
Track Condition: Fast
Surface: Dirt
Rank: 28/105

Thats pretty cool, Rick.
Thanks for sharing.

I've heard this as well-- that the turns at Pimlico are actually the same as at Churchill. However, I heard on ATRAB the other day that while "tight turns" is a myth, there is a definite crown in the track at Pimlico that disadvantages horses in the outside posts. Does anybody know which posts are most affected by this crown?