Thanks, that helps make sence of it all. Any other words of wisdom?

Well, if they stop looking for roses now, you can bet him next time at 7f or less. That is all I would make of that.

Thoroughbred Fan
 

I think this is your department.

OK, by request.

It is sense not "sence"

Main Entry: sense
Pronunciation: 'sen(t)s
Function: noun
Etymology: Middle English, from Anglo-French or Latin; Anglo-French sen, sens sensation, feeling, mechanism of perception, meaning, from Latin sensus, from sentire to perceive, feel; perhaps akin to Old High German sinnan to go, strive, Old English sith journey -- more at SEND
1 : a meaning conveyed or intended : IMPORT, SIGNIFICATION; especially : one of a set of meanings a word or phrase may bear especially as segregated in a dictionary entry
2 a : the faculty of perceiving by means of sense organs b : a specialized function or mechanism (as sight, hearing, smell, taste, or touch) by which an animal receives and responds to external or internal stimuli c : the sensory mechanisms constituting a unit distinct from other functions (as movement or thought)
3 : conscious awareness or rationality -- usually used in plural <finally came to his senses>

Yes---the track at Oaklawn Park that day was extremely inside-speed biased.

Flying First Class, who's bred to sprint, made a comfortable lead, and dismantled a field by many lengths. I believe the soundly beaten 2nd place finisher won back. His final time was almost two full seconds faster than alw horses later on in the card.

Basically, a combonation of taking advantage of a track bias, and running a giant race, equalled a very fast time over a racetrack that was yielding slow times all day long. Also, Flying First Class is a Wayne Lukas trained horse, and his horses have been notoriously inconsistant over the last several years...and often run a big race and fall off form.

If you look at High Heels, she was routed by a Lukas filly in her prep for the Fantasy...in the Fantasy, she won by a large margin over Cotton Blossom and Cash Included...the same Lukas filly who destroyed her in her previous start ran dismally on that day.

Hard Spun, who raced on the same card, was wide on both turns, and taken off the pace for the first time....thus meaning he ran against the track...as opposed to FFC...who ran with it.

It would be interesting to know someone who actually handicapped the race, using this beyer number in determining their bet. Allot of people bet the horse, why? did these beyer numbers have influence on them??

This information could have been very useful before adding Times Mistress to my Fantasy Stable. ;)

Sure, some people only know how to read the numbers that are bolded in the Form. Seems like a waste of paper to me. They should offer just the BSFs in a little pamphlet for those folks.

I don't think it was just the number people were betting on...

Well, I guess DWL was successful a decade ago. Maybe they remembered his name?

From a handicapping prospective, Curlin's 101 Beyer in his debut at GP was a slightly better individual performance than FFC's 107 Beyer at OP in his debut....because of the fact that the latters brilliant performance was bias aided.

Both numbers were absolutley correct..and fairly easy figures to make.

Curlin debuted on the same days as the Holy Bull Stakes, which was won by Nobiz Like Shobiz....his superior final time earned him a figure 5 points faster than Nobiz...who defeated a decent field in that race, 3rd place finisher Scat Daddy has since won the FOY and Florida Derby. 4th place finisher, beaten 10 lengths, named Sam P. has since returned to run 2nd and 3rd in major Derby preps at SA.

Why was FFC the favorite over Curlin in that race? Perhaps because of the fact he was ridden by last years eclipse award winning jockey, and trained by a Hall of Famer who's horses are most often overbet.

I'm sure to some, they just looked at the big beyer and went gaga.

But if it takes nothing more than looking at beyers, we could boil all the pp's down to columns of beyer figs. Forget the running lines, comments, etc.
The challenge in handicapping is to justify the figure, or to put in in context. Look at how it was earned and ask yourself if those conditions are likely to repeat next time.

DrugS gave the specifics in this case.

On the other hand, you may come to the conclusion that a big beyer IS reflective of the horse and can be repeated, or in some cases even improved upon due to the horse having raced in a disadvantaged sense, either wide or against a bias.

I see all these numbers as only a starting point for further analysis, not as conclusive of anything. They're just one of your tools.

Thanks folks<
As you must have figured out by now, I am not a fan of beyer numbers, however, I am always interested on how people use different info, and come up with a selection. This thread may or could be salvaged, and become somewhat useful, with these added comments you have made. Of course, there are others who won't.

Really all that matters, and is important to ALL of us, is that each and every thread here is useful to YOU.

We are here to serve......YOU.....and only YOU.

Thanks Throat, you are a very kind person. It's funny though, I can't seem to find anything useful you have said yet.

But thanks anyway, I know you care about helping out where you can.

Gee, what a disappointment to me. I just live to please you.

How many more days do you need to play this game before you get bored with it?

I liked this one more, why did you change it?
Maybe it will make more sense when you return to post drunk later. Those are always your posts that I enjoy the most.

I need a haircut

I do too.