" Instant gratification ", at the racetrack, is for losers. We are all in this for the long run. The same mentality that worries about when they DON'T win in this current discussion will also lead to trying to " get out " in the last race. There is only one actual " last " race to a horseplayer and in general we don't know when that is coming. A horseplayer does not divide his playing by days....just by cumulative results.

Exactly the point I was making... (or trying to.)

There are those (like my Dad, for example) who love to just bet on the triple crown days, etc. For him, instant gratification is what he wants. He's not a real horseplayer.

I didn't mean to start an arguement here, LOL. I understand the points made, and absent of specifics, a specific race, facts, etc., we are speaking conceptually. I thought there might be a "norm" or "smart play" kind of thing.

I guess the real answer is -- for me -- in this situation, is to very quickly seek out my friend Andy and ask him what to do, LOL.

I think in every situation we tend to weigh risk/reward, our interpretation or perceived "value" so to speak, emotions I would guess, and experience, along with a host of other elements.

Generically speaking, I think in certain situations place -- and show -- betting can be used as a hedge. I've bet plenty of horses -- who were not the favorite -- across the board, where they've run second or third. Running second, I make money somtimes -- of course not a lot. Running third, I mostly lose money, but get something back. Perhaps this is a "whimp" way of looking at it and playing. But I've done this when I don't have strong feelings and opinions about gimmicks.

On the other hand, how could you use the exacta as a hedge? If you bet an exacta (or a couple of exactas) with the favorite on top -- you are betting against yourself -- right? Use the non-favorite on top and he comes in, but you don't hit the exacta, you diluted your win (or WP, WPS) bet, right?

I completely understand this is far to generic in nature in order to arrive at an answer.

Anyway, thank you again for your advice and again, pardon my naivete.

Eric

Eric,

Please don't apologize. This has been a very informative thread and I've enjoyed reading it. It's gratifying to read the different points of views that come into play on this message board. Thanks for posting the topic!

Jamie

An excellent point on betting against yourself. I didn't even bring that up. These are the same people betting 3 horses to win the same race.

Grits, we are going in circles...Who cares if you talk to someone betting on horses for a 100 years, that's no argument in favor of it. Did that same person tally up what he would've gotten to place over all those years? Probably not. Or maybe he just had a habit of picking the second place horse in every race. Who knows? Maybe we can chart the next 500 races in NY and SA and see who's method comes out ahead. That might be good for the board. Scavs is a pro and these charts and I'm sure he wouldn't mind doing it....I'm joking Scavs, you don't have to do it---

I like that idea Randall. Find 200 races where the second finisher was between 10-1 and 20-1 and see if you do better betting $2 to place or a $2 exacta beneath the favorite.

Value betting is one of my gigs, and I have been successfull spreading a value horse. First, why in the hell would anyone bet a horse less than 4-1. This amazes me to no end. Long haul, short haul, you can't take less than 4-1 on a major bet. You will be starting the death march from Subic Bay, Phillipines. Every race isn't betable, you got to pick your spots, or be pick pocketed.
Of course, when you visit the track as a vacationer, the money doen't matter, your a short timer, having some fum, and will toss the loose cash in the pool, I LOVE YOU FOLKS.

Exacta's will kill you, place bets will suck you dry, so what can you do? Try a Key spread on a tri.

1/2345/23456

Win bet hard

Hard earned money well spent, win or lose

Nope that's not how it would be done. It would simply be charting all races. You are assuming the favorite is winning. You would do every race. Sometimes it would work out with the fave over a longshot and sometimes it won't. That's the only way it would work....You would only be using races where the favorite wins and obviously when they win at only a 30% clip, that would be faulty.

I'm gonna tell ya like a friend here RS, if you could get rid of that undulating little tart for an avatar, honestly darlin' I could take you a lot more seriously in regard to horseplaying.

As far as my mentor you don't wanna mess with me there. I've spent years listening to this man. I CARE, very much. Because, he's forgotten more than someone that plays on weekends, or casually, and bets ATB on longshots will learn in a lifetime. He played day in, day out. It was his living for a very longtime. He still plays. He's very good at it. AND when you do this for a living--you keep impeccable records, not to mention the involvement with CHARTS before Formulator came along. I imagine he kept charts on a point such as this as well. Good horseplayers know what works over the long haul.

You and I'll do fine RS, we just disagree on this and that's ok.

I second that motion.

I've kept records since 2000 for tax purposes.

Changed my avatar for you(i change it twice a week)
And if its a relative, I wasn't knocking you caring about them--sorry if you took it that way.

As for the charting I will be happy to do it. I will come up with some ground rules and we can both agree on those, but the only way to do it is to chart every single race that a longshot---over 10-1 finishes second regardless of where the favorite finishes....Give me some time to set this up.

Thanks for changing your avatar RS, I know you feel better now! LOL

The thing to do here is pick one race meet only, or two at the most, don't jump all over the country like someone with A.D.D., Gulfstream runs several more weeks, so does Santa Anita.

It would be better for someone that is in to this, as you say Scav is.

I just looked up 17 days at Aqueduct and found 25 examples where horses finished second at ANYTHING over 10-1.....you got a total of $371.30 if you bet place and $626.50 if you used them all second to the favorite in the exacta.

If I just focus on 10-1 to 20-1 the numbers are $156.70 for place and $225.60 for the exacta.

It's only 25 races....but the blind exacta is looking VERY strong.

It really is simple in my small mind. Its your money and whatever satisfaction, gratification etc you wanna get from betting the horses you will do. It may not be the "best" way, and you may go for decades on the losing end of the pendelum. Thats fine, cause its your money. On the other side of that pendelum.......................................... ......

Their will be people who will wager different, a "better" way and in the long run, over decades, they will "profit".

Who is happier?

Of course Randall....you look at any race where the second horse was over 10-1 and see what you got for place and whether or not you hit the exacta. If the favorite doesn't run second you get zero for the exacta.

I am not assuming the favorite ran second. I am using EVERY race where the place horse was over 10-1.

Andy, is that really the fair or comparitive analysis? I mean, I am just thinking this through, but how would you know, in hindsight, that you would play that 10-1 to 20-1 horse (that finished second) as opposed to another 10-1 to 20-1 horse? Do you then expand the play to include a second exacta underneath the favorite?

Thanks.

Eric

Eric, that's not the point. It is an analysis of how ONE would have done had they bet THAT SPECIFIC LONGSHOT in one or the other manner. The ones that don't finish second can't be used in an analysis because you lost your $2 whether you bet place or and exacta. It's the only way you can do the study.

I would like to see a sample of 500 and will grab the charts weekly at DRF to get a larger sample size. It's too cumbersome running through charts on Formulator.

OK -- I have to think this through, LOL. Thanks.

Eric

Also, in doing this, one has to keep in mind. This bet is not made in the first place without one clear and solid, postime favorite.