Well, Maui Strong is scratched which really just sort of ruins my day. Instead, I’ll take a chance on a longshot who promises to be a huge price:

Race 4. #5 Freedom Speaks, 12/1. Miguel Clement and Jena Antonucci both send out nice horses and Joe Sharp and Bill Mott send out two each in this race. So how did I end up on Heather Smullen’s mare? Well, this race doesn’t seem to have a whole lot of speed and Freedom Speaks adds Johnny V and stretches out from sprint races. I watched all of her sprints and she had some speed but she just never looked fast enough in any of her recent starts. She’s got a few figures that make her competitive here and I’d guess a pace advantage as I would expect Johnny V to send and all he’s really got to beat to the lead is Do Gooder and I don’t think Do Gooder is very fast. Her best race came at 6.5 furlongs at Kentucky Downs and she looked pretty good in her only race at a mile at Keeneland. Bullet workout last out. She’s also listed in the Ballaston Spa (ha!) and that was an overly ambitious placement but maybe an indication that she’s working really well right now.

I suspect Vive Veuve will be overbet based on the last out win against Proctor Street (who is a very nice horse) but outside of that race, none of her races really put her above the rest here. There’s a decent chance Freedom Speaks simply isn’t good enough but I think she’ll be even higher than that 12/1 morning line so I’ll take a shot on what looks like a major jockey upgrade and pace advantage.

Best Bet: Race 9 #5 Insubordination 8/1 - like on the stretch back putt today
Best Value: Race 10 #7 SoHo Nights 8/1 - seems as likely as any in here to me if the surface switch takes and should be a solid price with some of the other connections in here

Ugh. What a miserable day. Freedom Speaks isn’t a sprinter or a router. She’s just not very good. Regalton ran OK but darn — I almost landed on the winner, also trained by George Weaver. Had him in my multis but couldn’t connect on some of the other legs.

$192.00 wagered
$278.50 returned

I’ve got a few thoughts about tomorrow but going to look at the card a bit more.

Friday.

I was tempted here to go with #2 Salamis in Race 7 as he was wide throughout against some really good horses last race and still finished well…but there are too many intriguing prices that race to lock him in. Instead.

Race 2. #2 Epitaph, 8/1. I like Gary Contessa horses because they always seem to fly under the radar. This race looks like a two horse race between Alexis Zorba and Billionaires Row but I’m a little concerned both of them could be compromised by a fast pace. And neither is a horse I want to rely on at a short price. Epitaph broke his maiden on debut and was thrown into stakes races immediately afterward. He then got stretched out, not sure he liked that, and then back to sprints before a layoff. I’m not sure what’s up with his workouts but he’s a talented turf sprinter and he’ll be a big price in a race where I don’t really love the likely favorites.

Race 8. #2 Whiskey Decision, 6/1. I’ve got some reservations about Manny Franco handling this filly as she seems a bit stubborn and didn’t seem to settle easily last out. But she was still good enough to win and made a really nice move shooting through a gap on the inside. #8 Deep Satin is possibly going to be the favorite and the other Chad will draw a lot of money but I question if Maggie Go really wants to go this distance and I thought Whiskey Decision was more impressive last out. Ozara flattered Whiskey Decision with the last out win.

Best Bet: Race 7 #2 Salamis 3/1 - Super obvious off the last trip and the connections but I’d be delighted with 2/1 or better as I don’t think he’s losing although there are interesting alternates.

Best Value: Race 8 #5 No Mo Candy 8/1 - I have as fast as all the others in here and figures to be the best price of the contenders even with Irad jumping aboard.

I may be busy with the family this weekend so going to post some picks for tomorrow and Sunday now. If I have more time to look, I'll provide additional commentary or might even change them up.


Saturday.

Race 4. #9 Common Defense, 6/1. A few things here. First, Aragona is great with the morning line but I think this horse will be above 6/1. Carmouche has been riding well and note McPeek tries to get him back on turf, which he’s bred for. In some ways, it’s good he got his first race off the layoff out of the way. If he likes the turf at all, he should be able to sit behind Be Of Courage and make the first move.

Race 7. #2 Magical Ways, 12/1. Most of his turf races put him in the ballpark and note he tended to run figures a little better on turf than his dirt form coming into a race. (13 point jump in TF figure in October of last year when going dirt/turf and 17 point jump in TF figure last March going dirt/turf.) Rudy has tried to get him back on the grass the last three races and they were all washed off. A 10-15 Timeform jump would put him at 123-128 Timeform. I don't expect that but even a modest improvement going dirt/turf will make him competitive against the top horses in here. I don't love that Maragh hops aboard or that he's never won on turf -- but that also means his price will be good. The pace looks like it will be honest here and Magical Ways should be picking up pieces late. I think he's a must-use underneath and it wouldn't surprise me in the least to see him get up for the win.

(Note: Originally picked Far Bridge but switched to Common Defence to play the higher odds.)



Sunday.

Race 9. #8 Gabaldon, 8/1. I'm going to lose money betting against Governor Sam again but I want to take a shot here. Gabaldon reports as a first time gelding and gets Jose Ortiz to hop aboard. He's never finished out of the money in his three starts (all stakes races). The connections obviously think highly of him as he made his debut in a stakes race at Gulfstream (which he coincidentally won after running Governor Sam into the ground) and then was shipped to Ascot where he ran 2nd. He came up short last out after setting the pace but you've got to forgive him a little for faltering as he was thrown right back into stakes company off a 9 month layoff. He was given some rest and looks to be working well in preparation for this race.

Race 10. #10 Turn and Count, 20/1. Obviously this horse needs to get a little faster to be able to win this race but note he's run into some really good horses and he may like stretching out to two turns. The likely favorites in this race leave me underwhelmed -- Classicist got an easy front running win last out, and while that was an impressive return off a long layoff, he won't get an easy lead in this one as the horse to his immediate inside Tuscan Gold adds blinkers with Chileno and Hop Sing likely adding to the pace. Carlos Martin and Luis Rivera connecting at a 19% rate for 2024-2025. It's a longshot but I want to see how much this colt has improved since May. I've made worse bets.

God I am as cold as ice right now.

$200.00 wagered
$278.50 returned

Best Bet: Race 11 - #1 Practiical Lov 3/1 - think the last was legit as it comes and think she’s ready for even better today. Competitive race so think this morning line should more or less hold.

Best Value: Race 10 #2 Rebels Red 8/1 - I am a glutton for punishment constantly trying to beat Far Bridge but I do think that last race was a phony after all the scratches. Looks like a lot of people are landing on El Rezeen in here. I tried to beat Far Bridge with him last out and really after all the scratches he had no shot and ran OK, but he was never really getting to Far Bridge who was under wraps…should set up a lot better today and maybe I’ll put him right in the winners circle jumping off…I don’t love either of the Appleby runners though they’d hardly surprise. I think this is a perfect spot to try to get Rebel Red at a decent price against a field I’m not overwhelmed with. Given the one eye it’s no surprise that you never really know what you’re going to get but I think he can finish with these if Irad can work a trip.

I did look at Colonial today and I’m pretty excited to bet Isivungu another shot in the 8th. I think the form this year is completely muddied up with the trip to Dubai and today is absolutely the day to get the money. It’s a tough field but I’ll be shocked if he isn’t poised for an A effort today and the price should be right. In the Secretariat I also want to give Giacoso a shot. He was pretty good as a two year old but has some excuses in his last few.

Good luck

I ended up staying home with my two youngest while my wife is out with my two oldest. So I’ve gotten to watch all my horses get beat in real time today.

Common Defense was wide throughout and got beat by a horse I wouldn’t have ended up on in multis without hitting the ALL button, ultimately finishing third.

The pace didn’t really develop the way I hoped in race 7. I thought Maragh gave this horse a great ride and I hope anyone betting trifectas and superfectas included him as he got up for third at 13/1.

$208.00 wagered
$278.50 returned

For today, going to change my picks a bit.

I’ll stick with #10 Turn and Count in Race 10 as one of the picks but I don’t think I can bet against Governor Sam in the Mahony, plus Gabaldon is a gulfstream speed horse and I just don’t generally bet those horses.

Instead, I’m going to land on #3 Fun to Tap, 7/2 in the opener. The expectations for this horse have always been high and he looked pretty good when last seen in November. There are a few nice horses here that will take money but this horse wins with a mild improvement from his 2YO season.

Well, Fun to Tap was awful. Hopefully my other pick isn’t so bad.

I may just be losing it though because I’m kind of liking this 2 horse Everytimeithinkofu in Race 5.

Best Bet: Race 10 #11 Hop Sing 8/1 - I think could go overlooked in here with some of the name horses/connections. Should be appreciative of the added ground if they run this one at the right distance today.

Best Value: Race 8 #4 Ocala Dream 12/1 - Should be rounding back into top form and that makes a player in here at a number.

Nice call with Hop Sing. Just got edged out.

I need to recalibrate. I had built up quite a cushion but I’ve hit a drought. Time to lock in.

$216.00 wagered
$278.50 returned

Wednesday picks.

Race 6. #4 Klimt Master, 20/1. Klimt Master was mugged at the start of last race but I was impressed with how he cut the corner heading into the stretch and really made up some ground. His figures fit with every contender here and he’s got the added benefit of dropping into MCL from the MSW ranks. He’ll get majorly overlooked due to his jockey and trainer but tell me how much you really trust any horse in this race. Give him a clean trip and he’s got a huge chance to win this.

Race 8. #1 Disco Star, 5/2. Disco Star looks like the most talented horse in this field by a wide margin and I don’t want to take short prices on the other likely favorites — Hangover Heaven, Nonna Lynne, and Trail of Gold. Casse has brought a lot of horses ready to run to Saratoga and I’d expect her to appreciate the slight cutback.

Thursday

Race 6. #5 Schwarzenegger, 8/5. I’ve been waiting to bet this 2YO and hoping he doesn’t scratch out again. Im very doubtful that we get 8/5 on him but if he’s 8/5 then I’m in.

Race 9. #6 Mo Kreesa, 15/1. The pace here looks favorable for Mo Kreesa and note he gets Johnny V aboard for this race. I thought the ML favorite Enlighten got a perfect trip last out and still wasn’t able to win. Now he switches to a different barn and loses Irad so I’m not inclined to take him at a short price even if Santana has been riding great. The other likely top choice #7 Steadfast Resolve drops in class and comes out of some longer races and has Irad aboard. I like that horse a lot more than Enlighten — but you’ve got to wonder if he’ll be compromised by what looks to be a slow or at least moderate pace. The other pace horse that might interest me is Gem Mint Ten but he draws Romero Maragh and I don’t have full confidence in him like I do Johnny V. Mo Kreesa also switches barns to Mark Hennig and looking for him to move the horse up a bit from Linda Dixon.

Was away the last week plus and hadn't updated:
Jhirsch was awful.
Any Port was an OK third.
Duboff I thought ran pretty well, just wasn’t quite good enough at around 9/1.
Imminent Risk ran fair racking up another of what feels like a lot of 3rds for my picks of late.
Insubordination was probably one of my worst picks of the meet.
^Oops, forgot I picked Soho Nights too.
Salamis was a much needed winner paying $6.70/$3.50
No Mo Candy another who ran an OK third.
Practical Lov was a pretty disappointing non-threatening fourth.
I thought Rebel Red did all the dirty work, great race riding by Irad and just got nailed by a horse that ran an unbelievably strong race while also receiving a most perfect ride from Prat...that was a heartbreaker for me that cost me a few decent scores...paid $14.20 to place.
Ocala Dream was not rounding back into form and finished last.
I thought Hop Sing turned away No Bien Ni Mal about 5 times but had that sickening gut feel that what ended up happening, would, as NBNM denied Hop Sing who I was also wrong about being overlooked, took tons of money cutting the ML in half and paid a really short $4.40 to place.

Wagered: $216.00
Returned: $246.90

Ugly Card Today...

Best Bet: Race 8 #6 Hangover Heaven 7/2 - I totally get anyone who wants be be totally against a horse like this...it has a lot of the hallmarks of a bet against, however the more I looked through this field she just seems like the one with the upside and any type of move forward she might be too much for this field...she's worked four times since the debut - typically would want a better price on a horse like this but there wasn't a ton jumping out at me today.

Best Value: Race 6 #2 Cada Dia Mejor 15/1 - Maybe just not much horse but this feels like a field to take a swing in...he was hopefully just running on the wrong surface all winter being out of Big Brown, admittedly there's not a ton of breeding on the dam side, but again these are maiden claimers and I don't know how good he ultimately has to be...I thought he was clearly never going to get the distance in the April turf debut at 1 1/16 and then there was another dirt sprint, his best race to that point...I thought his first shot at a turf sprint was just fine and while he'll have to run better in here he's a bit muddied up and worth a shot today.

Just an added comment on Disco Star who everyone is saying she got a perfect trip last out. She did get an inside trip but was far back after a slow start and closed into a pace that very much held together. She might not get pace again today but she should get another inside trip. I’m hoping she is more forwardly placed today.

$224.00 wagered
$278.50 returned

As much as I've bought in to the Schwarzenegger hype, I can't pick an 8/5 two year old as one of my picks. I'm sticking with Mo Kreesa for all the reasons mentioned above. The other horse I want to take a shot on is going to be an absolutely massive price and will probably not win...but there are a few things I like and I'll regret it if I don't back him and he wins.

Race 3. #1 Extraoardinary One, 20/1. So, the things you obviously don't like here are that the horse has been running against lower competition, has a trainer with weak numbers, and will have Katie Davis aboard who has yet to win at Saratoga this meet. And this horse has not finished in the money once in 8 career starts. OK. But there are a few things I like about this horse -- first, he's clearly better on turf than any other surface and so 5 of his starts were wasted on other surfaces. His figure two back puts him in contention here, though that was at a dramatically longer 11 furlongs. But why was this horse going long to begin with? His sire and grandsire were sprinters and he's clearly faded in many of the route races he's been in, despite getting out to a good start. Now, he adds lasix and I've got no clue if that will make a difference or not but I'm getting a big price on a horse that does have some positives going for him. I'm not totally against the morning line favorite but believe only 2 of the 18 non-winners from his first two starts have gone on to win and one of those was on dirt so I'll take a shot against him.

Well, Extraordinary One outran his odds with a decent 5th place finish, confirming he should stick to the turf and probably turf races under a mile. I think the horse got bullied out of position early by the 2 horse and then outrun by the 3 in the stretch after trying to go around him. I think with a better trip, he maybe gets up for 3rd and finishes off my trifecta bet. But…no such luck.

Not sure if they’ll take the turf races off after this downpour. If so, I’lll add an alternate bet. I like the #9 Burn Rubber at 15/1 in Race 5 in the event that Race 9 gets taken off the turf.

8/14:
Best Bet: Race 8 #5 Nice Try Riley 12/1 - Bred for the dirt and I had that debut fast - probably to the point I'm not sure I trust the number - but there was a bit of a trip in there anyway...this field is hungry and I like a bit of a new face at a number here.

Best Value: Race 10 #5 Blame It On KJ 15/1 - When you think Kitten's Joy you think turf and I guess they wanted to try again but KJ runners can sometimes handle dirt and there is a little decent breeding on the damside that says the dirt is worth a shot. One thing is for sure the stretchout figures to be a big positive and I'll take a shot on this unexposed runner in a pretty weak field.

$232.00 wagered
$278.50 returned

The cold streak continues. Burn Rubber got the pace and trip I was expecting but just was not good enough. I might be taking too big of a swing with some of these picks...but I've got to keep taking shots where I think there is some value.

Friday.

I'm tempted to go with some short prices here just to get a win...but #4 Invictus in Race 2 is 8/5 and has Manny Franco aboard and I'm just not going to bet that horse at the price with the way Manny has been riding lately, even if he looks like the lone speed and that the 8/5 price will hold as former Breeders Cup Classic entry Dreamlike is entered here. I also tried to talk myself into just using Future Is Now as a single but the Smart N Fancy Stakes came up a little salty, imo, and Future Is Now looks to get yet another wide trip. So instead, here's where I ended up for the day.

Race 4. #4 Bellacose 8/1. Imagine getting Ward/Velazquez in a turf sprint at 8/1. I'm hoping that price holds as there doesn't seem to be much pace here with it looking like Bellacose and the #2 Bustin Bullet (Blinkers ON) will contend for the early lead. But Johnny V and Irad are both smart riders and I don't expect them to get into a duel that mutually assures their own destruction. Of the two, I prefer Bellacose who is lightly raced and has enough turf pedigree, combined with some nice turf workouts, for me to take a risk on her turf debut.

Race 9. #2 Risk Threshold 12/1. Future Is Now is going to be very tough to beat here but I want to take a chance on Risk Threshold who has put in two solid efforts in her most recent allowance races and should be primed for a peak performance here. Junior Alvarado has been great at working out ground-saving trips on the turf so far this meet and I'm not sure she's quite fast enough to contest the early pace so my hope is that she gets a perfect rail trip right behind the main speed.

8/15:

Best Bet: Race 9 #4 Ellen Jay 3/1 - Really wanted to go back to Twirling Queen at a better price but I just couldn't find the advantage for her over Future Is Now here. I considered some others too and again just wasn't convinced...Ellen Jay on the other hand isn't going to be all that much of a price, however she's the one with all the upside, is coming in working really well by the looks of it and ultimately I thought was the most convincing alternative.

Best Value: Race 10 #5 Twohonestmischief 12/1 - It felt like last time was the time for Solo Jim who can win here..Undisputed and Kaz Oil Changer can also win but don't exactly get the pulse racing so I wanted to find a longer shot. I totally get anyone thinking Twohonestmischief won't get the mile, the breeding is all sprint and the stretchout attempts don't exactly inspire confidence. With that said I think he's loose in here and I get the sense this could be the type of race where that might be all it takes...I think Chris Englehart may have found a sneaky spot here and if Manny can put them to sleep on the lead he might be able to drag him to the line.

Good luck.

Well, Bellacose was a really bad pick. I’d have never bet her at 7/2 or whatever she went off at…but what can you do. Risk Threshold went off around 15/1 and ran a pretty good race but just wasn’t good enough, finishing 4th.

$240.00 wagered
$278.50 returned

Saturday.

Race 4. #2 Run Wild 15/1. This half-sister to Drake’s Passage has put in a few bullet workouts and note Linda hits with 13% of first time starters and she enlists Jose Ortiz to debut this filly (Linda and Jose boast a combined 30% win rate on 2YOs over the last 5 years). I would have liked to see a 5 furlong workout mixed in there but I like what I see at 15/1 and that price should hold if heavy favorite Tennessee Belle stays in this race.

Race 10. #2 Good Cheer 8/5. I was very high on La Cara last race but things are very different this time around. La Cara will likely be alone on the lead again (though I’m curious how Queen Azteca who seems to have mostly sprint pedigree will be ridden), but I think this race is a question of which horse can perform at 10 furlongs and I’ve got questions about La Cara and she’s not going to be 7/1 here. Good Cheer has always looked like she’s wanted to go further and she’ll get the chance here. It’s also possible she bounced a bit last out after a big performance in the Kentucky Oaks and she’s now gotten some rest and his ready to fire her best again. Lots of respect for Nitrogen but I just can’t back her here. La Cara will be too short of a price for me. Good Cheer will be singled in every one of my bets. I will also be finding a way to use Margie’s Intention underneath as she’s another horse who just looks like she wants to keep running (and she had no chance last out at Delaware Park where the track was a conveyor belt). She’s going to run a big race, I just don’t think she’s good enough to beat her stablemate.

Run Wild is scratched. Give me #4 Cicciobello in Race 8, listed at 9/2 morning line.

8/16
Best Bet: Race 8 #8 Crimson Light 6/1 - Think still has the most upside in here and I thought his last race was better than it looks. If improving off the break should be able to handle these, protected against a bunch that have had chances, I'd be delighted with 6/1 in here but I'm a little skeptical...

Best Value: Race 12 #6 Bustin Away 10/1 - I toyed with chalking out as I think Good Cheer and Assertiveness are both very likely winners with the latter possibly being slight value if the 2/1 were to hold...but I decided to take a shot at a better price in maybe the most wide open race of the day... Bustin Away's lone turf start was pretty good and that was last year, I also think the 5.5 is much more suited to him than the 6 they ran that day. I'm really uncertain of his form at this point...I know some people like the Finger Lakes shipper angle, I personally almost always toss them, however he's kind of bred to love this, showed enough last year to take a swing at what should be a nice price today. It's a guess without a ton of confidence to be honest.

$248.00 wagered
$281.10 returned

Good Cheer ran 2nd and paid $2.60 to place. I don’t even know where Cicciobello finished.

Sunday.

Race 1. #1 Mystic Sea 6/1. All signs point to the ML favorite able to fire a good one off the layoff and any improvement from her 2YO races will make her extremely tough. But I want to take a shot against her. The next logical contender is Abundant Love and I thought she got a perfect trip last out and much prefer Dimensionality and Insperee out of that race, but I don’t really love any of the horses from that race. Dimensionality made a wide mid race move and still almost out finished Abundant Love. Insperee has looked rank in both her last two starts and I don’t think she liked being on the lead last time. Mystic Sea put in a solid first race on turf and note she was wide the entire race. She draws the 1 post and you better believe Junior is going to save some ground today. With some ground saved and hopefully a small move forward today in her 2nd turf start, she should be a major contender.

Race 5. #4 Typhoon Fury 8/1. This horse looks to have dirt pedigree and has figures on turf that fit here. I don’t really love the other horses so I’ll take a swing.

8/17:
Best Bet: Race 9 #4 Just For Luck 8/1 - Not enamored with this field, feel like the Dutrow barn runners are doing a little better than his win percentage indicates, seems to fit in here well.

Best Value: Race 10 #4 Senor Poncho 15/1 - Maybe reaching again similar to the last yesterday but I'm not in love with any of the favorites here. This hard knocker probably isn't good enough but if they don't show up, and there are reasons to believe that is possible on all of them, this horse fits pretty well to me and will be trying. Definitely a grinder but might've caught the right field today.

$256.00 wagered
$281.10 returned

Mystic Sea ran OK but was nowhere near good enough to win and got beaten for 2nd by Insperee. Typhoon Fury also ran OK but simply wasn't good enough, also finishing 3rd.

Wednesday 8/20

Race 2. #5 Patricia Ann 5/1 (Martin/Gomez). The #3 R Disaster is the 3-5 morning line favorite and deservedly so. She's finished 1st or 2nd in literally every start of her career, holds the last out beyer advantage putting up a 91 BSF in the Honorable Miss last out, defeating the other logical contender here #4 Striker Has Dial (who arguably didn't like the sloppy track that day.) Striker Has Dial's best races came when she was able to move comfortably through the early stages which seems unlikely to happen here as Carmouche will likely have to contest R Disaster early if he wants to try to win. I like Patricia Ann who I thought ran a really strong race in her first off the layoff last out. She now cuts back a furlong and should be ready for a move forward in her 2nd start off the layoff. She draws the outside post so she should be positioned well outside of the other speeds.

Race 8. #8 Sky's Not Falling 10/1 (Trombetta/J.Ortiz). The last race at Woodbine was just an impossible task as this horse tried graded stakes company for the first time in his career, going off at 63-1. This field has a lot of interesting faces in it but is a much easier field. Trombetta has put 17 starters in the gate at Saratoga this year, winning a whopping 29% of those starts and finishing in the money in 70% of them. He also tends to do well when dropping in class and lures Jose Ortiz aboard for this race (connecting at a 40%/60% clip over the last 5 years at Saratoga).

Thursday, 8/21

Race 3. #2 Vehemente 7/2 (Sharp/Carmouche). This is another race where there will be a likely big favorite in the #3 Kay Cup. Unlike R Disaster (bet against above), I'm not so sure Kay Cup should be such a heavy favorite. Yes, she's got some big speed figures and has Irad aboard but nothing about her suggests to me that she wants to go 9 furlongs and so I've got serious questions if she can carry this speed for that distance. The horse who looks to relish the distance is the next ML choice #4 Lottie Margaret but she really got a perfect trip last out and I think that race was the one where you wanted to bet her. I'm intrigued by the #2 Vehemente, who comes from the scorching hot Joe Sharp barn and who just worked an absolute bullet in her most recent work. I had some questions about her desire to go long but I thought she had a remarkably good race last out. She broke well but conceded the lead early, went very wide into the first turn, was wide throughout, then experienced some fairly significant trouble at the top of the stretch before ending with a pretty game finish. I think she's going to have a much better trip this time and I wouldn't be surprised to see her wire the field.

Race 4. #5 Mo Kreesa 8/1 (Hennig/Velazquez). Mo Kreesa had to be scratched last week after experiencing what was described as a superficial scrape. I wanted to bet him then and I still want to bet him here. He should have a pace advantage and I like that Hennig now takes over and gives him to Johnny V.

Just bet Parx for the first time in a long time and instantly remembered why I hate that track.

Note for today — sticking with the original picks even with Race 8 coming off the turf. I love these horses with Sky Mesa in the bloodline because they often seem to be able to run on any surface. Put them on the moon, they’ll handle the terrain. Sky’s Not Falling’s dam won 3 times on dirt and he broke his maiden on dirt. The 1A Loco Abarrio and the 5 Castle Island will likely get bet heavily here along with the other MTOs so I still see Sky’s Not Falling offering some value even with the shorter field.

As a side note, Saratoga really should start earlier in the day and not schedule 35 minutes between races.

Have to update numbers later today or tomorrow morning. Another card I really struggle to even find two picks today...that's been the majority of the last couple weeks...let's hope the weather holds though because I think the next few days have several opportunities.

8/20
Best Bet: Race 7 #5 Notah 4/1 - Not sure what kind of price he'll be in here after scratches with Irad up, but he's the only horse I really have any confidence in today...not that I'm in love with him...I just think he's the fastest horse in here and should handle these if he just maintains off his last and sees out the mile...he also might improve second off which would make him a very likely winner.

Best Value: Race 8 #14 Big Gain 10/1 - Looking for a form reversal but he's got some back races that are certainly fast enough to compete in here and I think may appreciate the track conditions today. I do think Loco Abarrio is much the horse to beat and I think Barnstorming is a little interesting in here, almost picked him but went with Big Gain. Might play around with those three in this race depending on odds.

Frustrating day as Patricia Ann finished last and Sky’s Not Falling had a slow start and then flattened out just when it looked like he might make a move to get up for maybe second, ultimately finishing 4th.

I also continued my habit of hitting 4 of 5 on the Pick 5. Really liked that 6 horse that won the finale but did not have Celtic Dawn in the 6th. Really messed my ticket up by not singling the 1A race 8 but I thought that 8 could compete.

Ah well. Onward.

$264.00 wagered
$281.10 returned

Back in the negative on the year, time to turn it around, feels like I slump at Saratoga around the same time every year - not just on these two a day picks but my handicapping/play in general. Won't hit all the picks but a few notes since last update:

R10 8/14 Blame It On KJ was arguably best with a wild trip but ultimately settled for second paying $6.80 to place.
R9 8/15 Ellen Jay had about as bad of a trip as I’ve watched in a while, really worth a re-watch if anyone missed it. Was she beating Future is Now? Hard to say...but he surely would’ve been second and I think at least would’ve made it a race...settled for third ultimately.
R10 8/15 Twohonestmischief did all the dirty work and was second best but got edged for the place in the final jump – would’ve been a nice payout considering for show he was just shy of nine bucks.
This past weekend picks all ran from fair to very poor.
Backed that up with a couple of lasts yesterday.

Wagered: $264.00
Returned: $255.70

8/21:
Best Bet: Race 7 #6 Fast Market 6/1

Best Value:Race 10 #10 Apertif 6/1

$272.00 wagered
$296.60 returned

Mo Kreesa did not get the aggressive up front ride that I wanted but it's also possible he just wasn't good enough. Vehemente got the exact ride I hoped for and was able to wire the field, paying $11.40 to win and $4.10 to place

I don't love the Friday card but there are a few horses I think are worth taking shots on at midrange prices.

Race 8. #6 Mama's Gold 6/1. I know that the pace might get fast here but that hasn't stopped him before. He was never going to win the Whitney but I respect the connections for taking a chance. He ends up in a dicey allowance race here but he really is the speed of the speed here so I'm hoping he can get out front and never look back.

Race 10. #4 Alexis Zorba 7/2 If he is really going to be 7/2 then sign me up. He should easily handle this field, even if he has a habit of giving up the lead late. I’m not seeing what horse here will be able to run him down.

$280.00 wagered
$304.70 returned

Alexis Zorba went off way below the ML at around 7/5 and paid $7.70 total for win and place. Mama’s Gold was terrible and me falling in love there probably cost me the Pick 5 as I didn’t include Film Star.

Saturday picks.

H. Allen Jerkens Memorial Stakes. Race 10. #3 Barnes 9/2. Talented Baffert colt has been working great and I think he needed a little time off. Looking for him to fire a big one off the layoff at a square price.

Forego Stakes. Race 12. #8 Scotland 12/1. If Scotland’s last race was just a prep for this one, I think he’ll have a really good chance to win this. He’s definitely got to improve but I’ll take a shot on him at 12/1.

8/22:
Best Bet: Race 10 #2 Cousin Ed 8/1 - I don't have much of an excuse for the last where he saved every step of ground but I view this as a wide open field and just think he's the best price of the win candidates. This feels like the right level and while perhaps he's going to get a similar trip today I'm hoping Dylan is a little more patient and perhaps that will lead to a better late kick. I just feel there might still be a touch of upside here and today is the day to get a price if I'm right.

Best Value: Race 9 #12 Midnight Conerto 20/1 - Going to be tough for Elliott to work out a trip from this post but at the likely odds I'll roll the dice that he can. Two back against some of the main rivals she got no pace at all to chase and did OK splitting the field. I didn't think the last race was a good fit for her and she seems to prefer the inner. She has to improve today from a difficult post but I thought those fall races portended some ability and we haven't seen that step forward yet, hoping today is the day.

Good luck.

Travers Day 8/23:

Best Value: Race 9 Personal Ensign #3 Raging Sea 5/1 - The race two back is one of the all-time trips that is very easy to draw a line through, the question is why did she run so badly last time? While she got bumped early it was not nearly as bad as two back and although the race didn't really set up for her I don't truly have an excuse. It looks like the works since have been great and Chad running her back here tells me he must have confidence she bounces back with a better effort today. Looks to set up absolutely perfectly for her with all the speed.

Best Bet: Race 12 Forego #7 Mullikan 7/2 - I know on paper there isn't much reason to think he turns the tables on Book Em Danno but I think the 7F plays to his favor, I love that Brisset kept him up in Saratoga pointing here and I actually feel like the odds on those two are going to be reverse of the order they should be (with good reason on recent results) - I think the distance and schedule Mullikan took here will be enough to turn the tables. I'm very afraid of Most Wanted, but I think Mullikan should be more like 8/5 in here so I'll take what I consider to be an overlay.

Another day bringing back $7.70 with Scotland running 2nd. If Scotland had gotten up, I would have had a huge day. Instead, down overall. The G1 races were just an absolute chalktoberfest and I rarely bet favorites so that’s how my day went. Barnes ran a pretty good race to finish third but never really seemed to be in contention to catch the top two.

$288.00 wagered
$312.40 returned

Sunday.

Race 1. #1 Sassetti 8/1. I can’t remember if I picked this horse already this meet or if I just thought about it but I liked this horse going into last race and I thought she ran a pretty good race that day as the only horse close to the pace not to finish poorly. I much prefer her to the horse that finished in front of her— the #2 Off Script who is listed at 7/2 ML.

Race 8. #3 Bettrluckythangood 5/1. Not sure what to make of the pace here but it sure looks like a lot of horses that want to be up front. That might just set up perfectly for this one. There is a big favorite here but not sure much separates this field.

Fast Market chased and faded badly.
Apertif paid $9.80 to place, likely to break her maiden next out or soon…
Midnight Concerto took back to last and split the field with a much more mild finish than I expected/hoped for.
Dylan rode Cousin Ed the way I hoped, taking back a bit and worked out a nice trip, was just not good enough to catch Alexis Zorba, proving second best paying $8.30 to place.
Raging Sea again had a mess of it at the start but continues to just fall way too far out of these races early and she’s passing tired rivals late but not a whole lot more.
No idea what Prat was doing with Mullikan, that was a dreadful ride but he ran so poorly maybe it didn’t matter.

Wagered: $288.00
Returned: $273.80