Depends on if Firing Line and Dortmund have off days at Pimlico.

Based on what I saw he did have an off day and still won because he is that much better then these horses, maybe Dortmund being the exception. Yes he had a clear trip, but he was also wide throughout the race so those things X each other out. I think he dominates the Preakness and probably losses the Belmont for a lot of the reasons BTW mentioned. He was hurt, and they are asking an awfully lot of him right now. I do think he will be sent to the lead in the Belmont and in Smarty Jones like fashion will open up turning for home. No way this jockey will play games after last year. But all of the racing will catch up to him. I want him to do it. I like the owner, he has had some great horses and has been unlucky. I also think the GOAT deserves it, Im just not sure its in the cards. Its kinda funny because everyone says how good/deep this crop is. And AP won and it feels like because he didn't win in hand by 10 lengths that its not good enough.....

LOL.

You are finally living up to your namesake.

I rest my case.

I certainly didn't, and maybe you didn't either. But plenty of somebodies did, betting Orb down to 3-5 in the Preakness. The media certainly bought the hype hook, line & sinker.

Actually, I think he's had a brain transplant.

His posts since coming back seem like they're being ghost written.

I don't perceive there being any negativity towards his performance, only a bit of reality that he isn't a super horse.

Perhaps this will play out to be like a Captain Bodgit, Silver Charm & Free House Triple Crown season. (With Materiality being the bad-trip spoiler in the Belmont :D )

But only crazy people on twitter called him a super horse, right? I don't get how winning the Derby makes you not as good as you were going in. Its not like the beyer came back really slow, and timeform gave it a good fig. I thought it was a good performance from a very good horse.

"According to CHRB staff, Kentucky requires that a jockey show the horse the whip and give it time to respond before striking the horse, and then must give the horse time to respond before striking it again. New York also requires jockeys to show the crop to the horse before striking again."

Read more on BloodHorse.com: http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-raci...#ixzz3ZDHMIvrd

No, there were smart people saying outlandish things about him that certainly did not come to fruition in the Derby. The fact that you are saying he didn't handle the track in the Derby is a direct result of that. This is the kind of opinion that indirectly will cause you to lose money unnecessarily, and eventually this could make you less of a racing fan.

The problem is that people get led astray with this kind of silliness. But, hey, at least some of us don't mind playing the bad guy, as long as it helps some people.

ear plugs
 

AP wears them ,and lost his only race without them. YET, the bettor has no knowledge of this in the pps, alongwith shoeing info and change of bits, no ? I had not known of he AP bar shoe until i read it here. why are lask and blinkers reported, but not earplugs, and sometimes shoeing ?

http://www.si.com/horse-racing/2015/...nd-bob-baffert

Maybe its my high opinion of him after the Arkansas Derby that makes me feel like he didn't run his race. That's all I said. I never mentioned the track. I hate all the hype he gets. It makes it hard to want him to do good. This is a horse who broke his maiden in a G1. He is clearly talented. I get that he pulls a lot of good trips, but I believe horses with tactical speed make there own trip. So I cant hold this against him. I read someone saying he has never had to take kick back. Well my response to that is why would he ever have to? I think he is a front runner who can rate. For what its worth I respect your opinion more then most. You mentioned a horse that was over 40-1 on talking horses on Saturday that I gave a 2nd look to because of you. He ran 2nd.

Recall that the two horses who finished behind him in the Del Mar Futurity were also maidens at the time. One of them still is.

These are the unmentioned details that keep hype alive.

Skyway had just won a G2 over the track, the prep for the G1.
Calculator came back and ran two good races before being sidelined. Finishing 2nd to AP next time out then winning a G3. Improving his beyer every race. These things matter, correct?
As for the hype. I agree that he is over hyped. I did not bet him at 5-2. I said on this board that I thought the chalks were legit going into the Derby. I was using Dortmund and AP as A's and Frosted and Upstart as my only back ups. I actually bet Upstart to win because of price.

It's interesting that American Pharaoh was the only one of several juveniles in CA last year that suffered major setbacks that has been able to make a sustained comeback.

Iron Fist went to the sidelines after the DM Futurity. Henry's Holiday went to the sidelines after one of the big stakes. Skyway went to the sidelines after bombing in the Frontrunner. American Pharaoh and Calculator were high profile scratches from the Breeder's Cup. One Lucky Dane went on the shelf after the BC. Texas Red disappeared after his seasonal debut. Calculator was injured in a workout soon after his comeback. One Lucky Dane was hurt in a work for the Kentucky Derby after 2 races.

So far, the late season 2yos, Dortmund and Firing Line have held it together.

Waiting for Om's 2nd start back too..

Bob Baffert handles "Papparazzi" after arriving at LAX.

"American Pharoah is going to get lots of a.ss when he retires"


http://www.tmz.com/2015/05/04/bob-ba...get-sooo-laid/

That's what happens when you have fast horses, they get hurt. When you are slow like some of horses on the east coast, you can't run fast enough to get hurt!! ��

Clearly there is way too much dead weight here to ever get a deal done.

That was a thread kill.

No idea what happened..it's like one of those proton thread bombs that leaves everything intact, yet sucks all of the collective brain cells into a black hole.

I don't get how some people will look for every excuse in the book to discount this horse's effort to validate their own biases. I imagine if I were a Dortmund fan, perhaps I'd feel the same - I don't know. I'm not really even a fan of this horse.

That said, the horse has done absolutely nothing wrong. Ran further than anyone else, persisted, won the friggin Derby. Somehow he's unworthy because Dortmund had a belly ache for a few hours 2 weeks prior, Upstart had a bad day, Firing Line purportedly didn't switch leads, Materiality had a bad break, etc.

It's silly. I only hope he gets even more of a pace and more dirt in his face. Of course if he draws outside and no one goes with him, that's on him as well. :rolleyes:

The only non biased people here are those who bet against Pharoah.

Yeah, critical analysis is way overrated, especially in horse racing. Silly me.

Is it only critical analysis when you, or someone that agrees with you, performs said analysis?

I thought my breakdown of Upstarts career as a close up stalker vs the perceived myth of him being a deep closer was pretty analytical and blew that myth out of the water.

I used observations, past performances and logic to illustrate my conclusion.

You? You just continued with your Zen chant that I'm biased, summarily dismissing the FACTS I presented to you, instead of showing me how I'm wrong.

That is often the tactic used by either someone without a leg to stand on, or someone who is threatened by evidence that threatens a tightly held belief.

I'm going with the latter.

Mostly.

I'm with you. Some "super horse" would have opened up big time in the stretch. I had AP and won so that was great, maybe not as great as Burch, but count me as less impressed by AP after the Derby than before.

I'm not comparing AP to Seattle Slew at this point and its been 28 years, but SS had almost 5 months off before his first race as 3yr old. and ran 4 times in less then 4 weeks while winning the Derby.

Sorry 38 years, time flies!!

As usual your instinct is spot on.

It's uncanny, but from March onwards in their respective 3yo years, American Pharoah's career closely parallels that of War Emblem.

Two facile wins leading up to the Derby; slow-paced merry-go-round Derby; Victor Espinoza aboard...

The only difference is War Emblem ran quite a bit faster.

And paid $43.00 to win.

You know its pretty silly to think that BTW is threatened by evidence, who watching and studies racing as much as he does?. He has bitch slapped me through the years when I post something stupid and if you listen to him on At The Races he does it to Steve as well. You think CJ, Doug Steve BTW and others dont disagree? They disagree all the time but that doesnt mean they less right in there view just means they dont see the data the same way.

Who could have been more wrong about the Derby then Doug? Doug is friggin world class in his knowledge of racing. Doesnt mean he wasnt dreadfully wrong in one stupid race. Beyer sees the race at one speef fig CJ sees it a bit faster, both are highly credible.

You are better off listening and learning why you are wrong then trying to argue points that dont work

War Emblem never won a race where he didn't go wire to wire. American Pharaoh has won stalking the pace.

Not true. War Emblem won an allowance at 2 from mid-pack. He also did not have the lead for the first 3/4s of the Preakness, albeit under stout restraint by Espinoza.

yeah, in the preakness he was all of a head off the lead. the point is, War Emblem was a need the lead type of horse. American Pharaoh has shown he can sit off the lead by at least a length or two as well as win on the lead. he's more versatile and adaptable.

Well, actually War Emblem was at least a length or more off the lead during the 1st quarter mile of the Preakness.

But thanks for clarifying the goalposts...and ignoring the 2yo allowance race.

I have a wide open mind, I admit when I'm wrong, and I rarely get defensive when confronted with evidence that I'm wrong. It's something I aim for, to always learn.

On to the rest of your post. Why is it that it is me that is wrong, when we are interpreting this data Fred?? How am I arguing points that don't work? How am I wrong? I gave Serling a more detailed breakdown of how I interpret Upstart's career, racing style, etc., in an honest attempt at a two way dialog.

What I got in return was a quick dismissal by saying that I'm biased. That to me, is being closed minded and an unwillingness to possibly admit to being wrong on his part.

I went back and watched all of Upstarts races. I now have a better appreciation for the horse, but at the same time, it confirmed what I already felt about him. He's a presser that lays up close to the lead and probably prefers a one turn type of race say from 7/8ths to 8.5 furlongs in distance.

This notion that he is some sort of stone cold closer is completely unsubstantiated by both his PPs and his actual racing style. Hell, in his first few starts, the jock is trying to get him to rate and Upstart fights the jockey very noticeably!

I say this with no sarcasm. I'd love to have someone illustrate how I am wrong with this.

Of course, nobody will.

First few starts are not necessarily a horses true indication of style and ability right?

I doubt BTW thinks or Nick think he is a stone cold closer I believe what both think are that he he is best suited to make one well timed run. I am not of opinion BTW or Nick think the colt is a Zenyatta type last to first colt.

Correct, I highly discount the first few races. I mention it only to further demonstrate that the horse does not want to be far back off the lead.

And yeah, I realize the fan club is not making him out to be a Zenyatta type of closer. I keep bringing that up because they said he was taken out of his style, in various races.

The reality is quite different from their claims though. He pretty much runs the same style every time.

I still see no evidence that those guys are right.

This semantics argument about his running style is just one big diversion from the indefensibly asinine opinion that arguably the fastest horse in the crop on paper is best suited to NY-bred races.

This.