Derby Trail Forums

Derby Trail Forums (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/index.php)
-   The Paddock (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/forumdisplay.php?f=2)
-   -   TimeformUS (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=51175)

odbaxter 09-05-2013 11:54 AM

Doug, is there a place I can get your picks from the paper online?

Calzone Lord 09-05-2013 12:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by odbaxter (Post 944422)
Doug, is there a place I can get your picks from the paper online?

Erie Times News hardcopy is the only place.

Not sure why, but they only post columns on their website (goerie.com) Two of the main guys at the paper are regulars at the track.

odbaxter 09-05-2013 05:17 PM

I know this is pushing it a bit. (or a lot) but maybe we could get a picture like above in this post.
I wouldn't ask this of you Doug; you're busy enough. Maybe someone else with access to this paper would be kind enough?

Calzone Lord 09-06-2013 07:58 PM

You can E-mail Sports@Timesnews.com and ask for the picks for PID and I would think they'd forward them to you. Maybe if you keep pestering them enough, they'll post them up.

From what I've been told, I'll be on TVG Sunday night for their coverage of the Presque Isle Mile.

Sightseek 09-10-2013 07:41 AM

I'm a couple months early, but...

Do you guys know if you plan to release advanced pps for the Breeders' Cup like DRF does?

Also, any chance they will have both you (Doug) and Justin do more extensive analysis of both days rather than plays of the day?

casp0555 09-12-2013 03:37 PM

great job in the Bel 3rd today guys :tro:

cmorioles 09-12-2013 04:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by casp0555 (Post 945241)
great job in the Bel 3rd today guys :tro:

Anyone betting the blog posts this summer would be showing a nice profit.

casp0555 09-12-2013 04:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cmorioles (Post 945253)
Anyone betting the blog posts this summer would be showing a nice profit.

;)

Calzone Lord 09-12-2013 06:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by casp0555 (Post 945241)
great job in the Bel 3rd today guys :tro:

Thanks. Glad you hit it today.

No Play of the Day blog posts on Wednesday's anymore, but I am now giving TVG 3 Eastern editions plays on Wedensday, which they will discuss with bullet points in their live on-air coverage.

Yesterday's three did well. 2nd at 10/1 odds at Suffolk, 2nd at 5/1 odds at Belmont, and a $14.40 winner at Belmont who didn't even have to survive an inquiry or objection thanks to the 2nd place jockey's generosity.

10 pnt move up 09-12-2013 06:36 PM

How did you know that the trainer was just a 59 first out, did not see that in the expanded trainer stats numbers? Am I missing that?

Calzone Lord 09-12-2013 07:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up (Post 945264)
How did you know that the trainer was just a 59 first out, did not see that in the expanded trainer stats numbers? Am I missing that?

Right now, only trainer ratings relevant to today's race are on display.

I will ask the guys in New York about adding the trainers rating with first-time-starters to all 2nd time starters in the future.

There are some trainers who are lousy with first-time starters and great with second time starters.

This horse today was also the only other horse to take a little early action in the Sweet Whiskey maiden race ... and no A. P. Indy first time starter, going for a low-rated debut trainer, is ever going to have a shot at winning a Saratoga 2yo MSW race at 5.5f

Most bettors are turned off by big stretch-outs like that, but with A. P. Indy as the sire, the figures often spike upward by giant margins.

Calzone Lord 09-12-2013 08:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sightseek (Post 944985)
I'm a couple months early, but...

Do you guys know if you plan to release advanced pps for the Breeders' Cup like DRF does?

Also, any chance they will have both you (Doug) and Justin do more extensive analysis of both days rather than plays of the day?

It's very probable, but I'm not sure. I know they're really focused right now on two big new things to come before the Breeders Cup.

10 pnt move up 09-13-2013 02:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord (Post 945267)
Right now, only trainer ratings relevant to today's race are on display.

I will ask the guys in New York about adding the trainers rating with first-time-starters to all 2nd time starters in the future.

There are some trainers who are lousy with first-time starters and great with second time starters.

This horse today was also the only other horse to take a little early action in the Sweet Whiskey maiden race ... and no A. P. Indy first time starter, going for a low-rated debut trainer, is ever going to have a shot at winning a Saratoga 2yo MSW race at 5.5f

Most bettors are turned off by big stretch-outs like that, but with A. P. Indy as the sire, the figures often spike upward by giant margins.

That would be nice, or maybe a color coding for a "angle" so it stands out as a real positive or negative change in number, if a trainer is 90 first and 90 second it really does not mean anything.

cmorioles 09-14-2013 06:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up (Post 945320)
That would be nice, or maybe a color coding for a "angle" so it stands out as a real positive or negative change in number, if a trainer is 90 first and 90 second it really does not mean anything.

Doug did very well again today in the KY Turf Cup.

freddymo 09-15-2013 08:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cmorioles (Post 945532)
Doug did very well again today in the KY Turf Cup.

Nobel Damsel winner was Timeform best fig horse. You guys are on to something. Nice

Danzig 09-15-2013 08:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by freddymo (Post 945567)
Nobel Damsel winner was Timeform best fig horse. You guys are on to something. Nice

:tro:

cmorioles 10-03-2013 03:13 PM

Doug comes through again in today's 7th at $27.40

freddymo 10-03-2013 03:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cmorioles (Post 947868)
Doug comes through again in today's 7th at $27.40

He stole that from me but that's ok

outofthebox 10-03-2013 03:19 PM

He is amazing! And to think i laughed when that horse won..congrats'

Calzone Lord 10-03-2013 04:37 PM

Thanks guys, appreciate it.

Thunder Gulch 10-03-2013 05:17 PM

I had just replied to the earlier post on Twitter. Superb stuff again......so how do I convince you guys to do a TimeformUS multimedia seminar for the Breeders Cup? There has to be a growing market that would buy in for that. I'm getting more familiar with it, but getting inside somebody's methodology may really tip the scales. ;)

odbaxter 10-20-2013 06:24 PM

Doug, that was another sweet call with Laddie's boy today!

Calzone Lord 10-20-2013 07:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by odbaxter (Post 950023)
Doug, that was another sweet call with Laddie's boy today!

Thanks.

He was involved in back to back insane pace battles. Here are the pace figures for his last two races on the 100 point scale.

Breeders Futurity:

Race (+37): 102 for a half mile, 93 for six furlongs 65 for final time

Laddie's Boy: 99 for a half, 89 for six furlongs, 55 final time


Iroquois:

Race (+29): 94 for a half, 81 for six furlongs, 65 final time.

Laddie's Boy: 94 for a half, 81 for six furlongs, 61 final time.


When the Pace Projector looked like this today:




All it really took was for him to relax a little on the early lead, and he won clear at 12/1 odds. Just wish the 4th place horse Rope A Dope had run one length better to complete the exacta.

outofthebox 10-27-2013 11:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord (Post 950031)
Thanks.

He was involved in back to back insane pace battles. Here are the pace figures for his last two races on the 100 point scale.

Breeders Futurity:

Race (+37): 102 for a half mile, 93 for six furlongs 65 for final time

Laddie's Boy: 99 for a half, 89 for six furlongs, 55 final time


Iroquois:

Race (+29): 94 for a half, 81 for six furlongs, 65 final time.

Laddie's Boy: 94 for a half, 81 for six furlongs, 61 final time.


When the Pace Projector looked like this today:




All it really took was for him to relax a little on the early lead, and he won clear at 12/1 odds. Just wish the 4th place horse Rope A Dope had run one length better to complete the exacta.

Rise Up coming out of the hot paced Iroquois, captured the Jean Lafitte last night at Delta Downs at 3-1.

casp0555 12-10-2013 12:48 PM

Nice job guys at FL in the 4th (12/10) $33 and change for the cold exacta 10/6. :$::tro:

cmorioles 12-22-2013 03:52 PM

Doug just continues on an almost unbelievable roll:

http://timeformusblog.com/2013/12/22...-for-sunday-5/

outofthebox 12-22-2013 04:52 PM

Amazing Best Play hits at 10-1...3 out of 4 on the card, much props to Doug and the whole Timeform team. Have to admit that i don't go into any of my races without looking at your pace projections. Gives me a good idea how the race sets up for my horses, and what to discuss with the jockey if needed..Thanks for an excellent product!

jms62 12-22-2013 05:02 PM

Great job Doug!

Calzone Lord 12-22-2013 09:14 PM

Thanks. CJ does a great job with the figs. Our company has a lot of good ideas, like the Pace Projector Alan mentioned (though his circuit is tough because of timing issues)

I just get to pick my spots and have to execute. I didn't quite get it done at the KEE meet, but was profitable at Belmont, wildly profitable at Saratoga, and off the charts at Aqueduct. Feels good to at least have the opportunity to prove that I can post a big long term profit outside of PID, in a public handicapping role.

Our West coast analysts at Timeform, Finch and Finnegan have done an excellent job as well. I hope it translates to people seeing the value of our past performances, and knowing that you can get an edge in areas with them.

pweizer 01-30-2014 05:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord (Post 963082)
I will no longer be involved with TimeformUS after February 8th.

Over the course of the year 2013, I made speed figures for over 10,000 North American races. I also did analytical full write-ups for well over 200 races. The suggested bets at the bottom of those write-ups produced a very, very strong betting profit.

As a figure-maker, CJ is an absolute machine. He was responsible for making speed figures for over 30,000 races last year alone...and I'll always be in awe of him. It was a tremendous opportunity and experience working with him. He's a great person and a hell of a talented and efficient figure maker.

Unfortunately for me, a decision was made by the New York City office to move my position to New York City. The goal being to get some TV exposure at NYRA tracks and at Monmouth Park, in the future.

My girlfriend is in the final year of Grad School, and there was absolutely no way I could ever even consider uprooting and moving to New York...especially with the promise of being forced to drive around between NYRA tracks and Monmouth. In plain English, that sounds like a sure-thing traffic fatality waiting to happen...and I'd hate to put my family through another death...and I'd really hate to die myself while I'm still young and have tons of savings and investments, everything paid off, and virtually no bills, and no debts anywhere.

Anyway, it was an honor to work with TimeformUS for 1-year and 9-months. They have a very talented team and a very good product with a lot of innovative ideas. They didn't discourage me much from speaking my mind, but I blame them for me now having a Twitter account. God, will I not miss Twitter once I can wean myself from it's ugly addiction.

Anyway, just thought I'd let you guys know about my impending departure. Perhaps they will find someone internally, but if not, there will be a racing analyst, figure-maker, and TV job opening in the New York City area, very soon.

Wow, a major loss for the Timeform group. Doug--you did an amazing job with this.

Paul

Calzone Lord 01-30-2014 05:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pweizer (Post 963083)
Wow, a major loss for the Timeform group. Doug--you did an amazing job with this.

Paul

Appreciate it, Paul.

They still have some very talented people left there...and the juice was just about squeezed dry with me. It was disappointing to hear their intention of moving the position to NYC two weeks ago.

I really do look forward to taking a little time off and getting back to doing day to day betting, and the kind of trip handicapping I was able to do when I had free time.

outofthebox 01-30-2014 06:17 AM

Doug, best of luck to you..Your decision to stay put and put your family and girlfriend ahead of yourself, well that just shows you have a tremendous amount of character..Your contributions to TimeformUs will surely be missed..

Calzone Lord 01-30-2014 06:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by outofthebox (Post 963086)
Doug, best of luck to you..Your decision to stay put and put your family and girlfriend ahead of yourself, well that just shows you have a tremendous amount of character..Your contributions to TimeformUs will surely be missed..

I appreciate it, Alan.

Danzig 01-30-2014 07:07 AM

hate to hear you won't be there any more, but certainly understand why.

3kings 01-30-2014 07:57 AM

Doug, great work with Timeform but family always comes first. You will be successful with whatever is next because of your tremendous work ethic.

Calzone Lord 01-30-2014 09:01 AM

Thanks Tom. Appreciate it.

Indian Charlie 01-30-2014 09:37 AM

Now if they'd just figure out how to make their pps more user friendly, they'd be all set.

rpncaine 01-30-2014 11:20 AM

Sorry to hear this Dougie. Was just beginning to get back into the game after a few months away and started using Timeform some. Always looked for your byline and comments.

Stay on twitter, just only give us the winners! :tro:

declansharbor 01-30-2014 11:47 AM

Your run at Aqueduct a month back was nothing short of amazing.

Stinks to hear about the news, but confident you'll land on your feet when time permits. Best of luck Dougie!


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 10:55 AM.

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.6.8
Copyright ©2000 - 2025, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.