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-   -   6/8 (BEL) 145th Belmont Stakes: Field at 14 as 'Tiz' passes (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=49949)

RockHardTen1985 04-15-2013 06:56 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Calzone Lord (Post 923831)
If she wasn't a Pletcher horse going Gulfstream to Churchill ... I'd probably want to key her on top in the Derby.

There are absolutely zero question marks about the validity of her last performance. It can be quantified and it was a lot better than anyone elses best performance.

The question obviously is: Can she repeat it?

The Kentucky Oaks is a race not as well suited to her running style. It's overflowing with speed. All of the preps have been won impressively by horses with the same running style as hers.

The Kentucky Derby has such a relatively paceless look right now ... that Oxbow might be the most likely pacesetter.

I think if you're that dead set against Dreaming of Julia's Derby chances... find a closer in the Oaks and bet against her there.

The Oaks will be a demanding race because she's going to be stalking a couple of horses who are free running and have already posted huge figures sprinting. She'll pay a huge price for it in the stretch.
What was up with Oxbows ride Saturday? I think in the Derby he can pull a soft trip just off GoldenCents. At a big price now!!!

pweizer 04-15-2013 07:15 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Calzone Lord (Post 923831)
If she wasn't a Pletcher horse going Gulfstream to Churchill ... I'd probably want to key her on top in the Derby.

There are absolutely zero question marks about the validity of her last performance. It can be quantified and it was a lot better than anyone elses best performance.

The question obviously is: Can she repeat it?

The Kentucky Oaks is a race not as well suited to her running style. It's overflowing with speed. All of the preps have been won impressively by horses with the same running style as hers.

The Kentucky Derby has such a relatively paceless look right now ... that Oxbow might be the most likely pacesetter.

I think if you're that dead set against Dreaming of Julia's Derby chances... find a closer in the Oaks and bet against her there.

The Oaks will be a demanding race because she's going to be stalking a couple of horses who are free running and have already posted huge figures sprinting. She'll pay a huge price for it in the stretch.
You hit it on the head. The history of Pletcher horses running monster races in Florida and then repeating them elsewhere is not good. At a short price, I will certainly be playing against.

Paul

Danzig 04-15-2013 08:26 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985 (Post 923834)
What was up with Oxbows ride Saturday? I think in the Derby he can pull a soft trip just off GoldenCents. At a big price now!!!
i don't know, what was up with it?

Aly-Sheba 04-15-2013 08:44 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kasept (Post 923826)
Den's Legacy not coming appears to be a post-race status decision because after other declarations, he would be in the 20.

In terms of Dreaming of Julia, I got the feeling from Pletcher that he was very comfortable with not being put in the position to have to decide on a Derby run for her.
If they happen to run Den's Legacy, I hope they try different tactics and try to make one run instead if pressing early then have nothing late.

NTamm1215 04-15-2013 09:06 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Aly-Sheba (Post 923843)
If they happen to run Den's Legacy, I hope they try different tactics and try to make one run instead if pressing early then have nothing late.
It's going to take a lot more than that for Den's Legacy to be remotely competitive. He stinks.

Aly-Sheba 04-15-2013 09:26 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by NTamm1215 (Post 923845)
It's going to take a lot more than that for Den's Legacy to be remotely competitive. He stinks.
Maybe he does not belong in the Derby, but I think he is going to be a useful horse in the future and most likely on the turf. I sure would like to own a horse like him with the money he has won!

RockHardTen1985 04-15-2013 10:08 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Danzig (Post 923841)
i don't know, what was up with it?
For starters Doug just said he could be setting the pace in the derby. He didn't sniff the lead on Saturday. At what point was he given an opportunity to win?

Scav 04-15-2013 10:13 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by NTamm1215 (Post 923845)
It's going to take a lot more than that for Den's Legacy to be remotely competitive. He stinks.
He stinks on the wrong surface. He would be a good turf horse with a different trainer

Kasept 04-16-2013 06:41 AM
Napravnik picks up My Lute: http://blogs.courier-journal.com/rac...entucky-derby/

Danzig 04-16-2013 06:49 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985 (Post 923852)
For starters Doug just said he could be setting the pace in the derby. He didn't sniff the lead on Saturday. At what point was he given an opportunity to win?
around the turn for home.
and yeah, he could be on the lead, if he breaks well, and has a post nearer the inside. i'm not sure what you think the jock could have done with oxbow given his starting position in the ark derby. he wasn't the only early speed in that race.

Kasept 04-16-2013 11:06 AM
Edgar Prado likely on Charming Kitten per Todd Pletcher on SiriusXM this morning..

Aly-Sheba 04-16-2013 12:35 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kasept (Post 923879)
Edgar Prado likely on Charming Kitten per Todd Pletcher on SiriusXM this morning..
I wonder if Talamo is getting any offers? Even if rides someone with no chance it would be good experience for the future.

a_rookie 04-16-2013 01:35 PM
BRISNET -- DERBY & OAKS CONTENDER PP'S

Kasept 04-16-2013 01:44 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Aly-Sheba (Post 923889)
I wonder if Talamo is getting any offers? Even if rides someone with no chance it would be good experience for the future.
Talamo will ride Tiz a Minister who is looking likely to make the field.

Kasept 04-16-2013 01:50 PM
5/4: KENTUCKY DERBY -- CURRENT FIELD -- TUESDAY (4/16)

1. Orb (Shug McGaughey/Joel Rosario)
2. Verrazano (Todd Pletcher/John Velazquez)
3. Goldencents ( Doug O’Neill/Kevin Krigger)
4. Java’s War (Ken McPeek/Julian Leparoux)
5. Overanalyze (Todd Pletcher/Rafael Bejarano)
6. Revolutionary (Todd Pletcher/Calvin Borel)
7. Lines of Battle (Aidan O’Brien/Ryan Moore)
8. Vyjack (Rudy Rodriguez/Garrett Gomez)
9. Will Take Charge (D. Wayne Lukas/Jon Court)
10. Itsmyluckyday (Eddie Plesa Jr./Elvis Trujillo)
11. Govenor Charlie (Bob Baffert/Martin Garcia)
12. Black Onyx (Kelly Breen/Joe Bravo)
13. Palace Malice (Todd Pletcher/Mike Smith)
14. Normandy Invasion (Chad Brown/Javier Castellano)
15. Frac Daddy (Ken McPeek/TBA -- V. Lebron in AR Derby)
16. Mylute (Tom Amoss/Rosie Napravnik)
17. Oxbow (D. Wayne Lukas/Gary Stevens)
18. Falling Sky (John Terranova/Luis Saez) **
19. Charming Kitten (Todd Pletcher/Edgar Prado)
20. Tiz a Minister (Paul Aguirre/Joe Talamo) **
-------------------------------------------------------------
21. Golden Soul (Dallas Stewart/BJ Hernandez)

my miss storm cat 04-16-2013 04:08 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kasept (Post 923901)
5/4: KENTUCKY DERBY -- CURRENT FIELD -- TUESDAY (4/16)

18. Falling Sky (John Terranova/Jose Espinoza) **
Oh no did I miss something?

Surprised to see his name in pink...

Kasept 04-16-2013 04:17 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by my miss storm cat (Post 923911)
Oh no did I miss something?

Surprised to see his name in pink...
Simply not certain to run.

my miss storm cat 04-16-2013 04:19 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kasept (Post 923912)
Simply not certain to run.
Awww okay thanks.

Danzig 04-16-2013 04:31 PM
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-raci...w-for-ky-derby

stevens stays on oxbow, court on will take charge.

geeker2 04-16-2013 05:07 PM
Wow! Five starters for Todd - that's even a lot for him.

Kasept 04-18-2013 03:29 PM
If Falling Sky runs -- decision expected Sunday -- Luis Saez to ride.

my miss storm cat 04-18-2013 04:07 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kasept (Post 924172)
If Falling Sky runs -- decision expected Sunday -- Luis Saez to ride.
I just hope he goes.

Saez won on him back in December but I'd have been fine with Garcia too.

Hell Calzone Lord could ride him and I'd still give him a very good chance.

Kasept 04-19-2013 07:15 PM
@KennyMcPeek will let AR Derby runner up Frac Daddy dance with the one who brought him, as Victor Lebron retains mount for @KentuckyDerby..

rpncaine 04-19-2013 07:45 PM
:tro:
Good for him.
:tro:

Kasept 04-21-2013 07:55 AM
DERBY NOTEBOOK: Falling Sky a KD 139 go..
 
John Terranova says Newtown Anner Stud/Jim Covello's Falling Sky 'a go' for @KentuckyDerby. Plans on breezing next wknd. Luis Saez rides..

Will contribute to previously murky pace picture..

my miss storm cat 04-21-2013 09:50 AM
Yea! :)

Kasept 04-21-2013 12:02 PM
5/4: KENTUCKY DERBY -- CURRENT FIELD -- SUNDAY (4/21)

1. Orb (Shug McGaughey/Joel Rosario)
2. Verrazano (Todd Pletcher/John Velazquez)
3. Goldencents (Doug O’Neill/Kevin Krigger)
4. Java’s War (Ken McPeek/Julian Leparoux)
5. Overanalyze (Todd Pletcher/Rafael Bejarano)
6. Revolutionary (Todd Pletcher/Calvin Borel)
7. Lines of Battle (Aidan O’Brien/Ryan Moore)
8. Vyjack (Rudy Rodriguez/Garrett Gomez)
9. Will Take Charge (D. Wayne Lukas/Jon Court)
10. Itsmyluckyday (Eddie Plesa Jr./Elvis Trujillo)
11. Govenor Charlie (Bob Baffert/Martin Garcia)
12. Black Onyx (Kelly Breen/Joe Bravo)
13. Palace Malice (Todd Pletcher/Mike Smith)
14. Normandy Invasion (Chad Brown/Javier Castellano)
15. Frac Daddy (Ken McPeek/Victor Lebron)
16. Mylute (Tom Amoss/Rosie Napravnik)
17. Oxbow (D. Wayne Lukas/Gary Stevens)
18. Super Ninety Nine (Baffert/TBA)
19. Falling Sky (John Terranova/Luis Saez)
20. Den's Legacy (Bob Baffert/TBA)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
21. Charming Kitten (Todd Pletcher/Edgar Prado)
22. Winning Cause (Todd Pletcher/TBA)
23. Code West (Bob Baffert/TBA)
24. Tiz a Minister (Paul Aguirre/Joe Talamo)
25. Golden Soul (Dallas Stewart/BJ Hernandez)

Alan07 04-21-2013 12:06 PM
Unless he is guaranteed a start in the KY Derby by Wednesday, Tiz a Minister will be entered in the Snow Chief stakes at Hollywood on Saturday. Even if the horse runs next weekend, the connections aren't ruling out a Derby start if he gets in after that point.

http://www.courier-journal.com/artic...TS08/304200152

Kasept 04-21-2013 04:12 PM
Baffert refuses to rule Den's Legacy out for Derby, so he's back on the list and Ken Ramsey's kickin' and screamin'..

Danzig 04-21-2013 06:51 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kasept (Post 924720)
Baffert refuses to rule Den's Legacy out for Derby, so he's back on the list and Ken Ramsey's kickin' and screamin'..
derby fever, no one is immune

Alan07 04-22-2013 06:27 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kasept (Post 924720)
Baffert refuses to rule Den's Legacy out for Derby, so he's back on the list and Ken Ramsey's kickin' and screamin'..
Has there been any speculation if Baffert decides to run one or two currently undecided from his camp on jockeys?

Calzone Lord 04-22-2013 06:43 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kasept (Post 924720)
Baffert refuses to rule Den's Legacy out for Derby, so he's back on the list and Ken Ramsey's kickin' and screamin'..
He's doing Ramsey a big favor.

Alan07 04-23-2013 02:23 PM
Super Ninety Nine and Den's Legacy officially pulled from consideration; decisions on Code West & Power Broker expected over the weekend.

http://admin.kentuckyderby.com/sites...ky%20Derby.pdf

tjfla 04-23-2013 02:24 PM
Charming Kitten IN

Winning Cause
Code West
Tiz a Minister
Golden Soul

1 Spot Left

Kasept 04-23-2013 02:28 PM
5/4: KENTUCKY DERBY -- CURRENT FIELD -- SUNDAY (4/21)

1. Orb (Shug McGaughey/Joel Rosario)
2. Verrazano (Todd Pletcher/John Velazquez)
3. Goldencents (Doug O’Neill/Kevin Krigger)
4. Java’s War (Ken McPeek/Julian Leparoux)
5. Overanalyze (Todd Pletcher/Rafael Bejarano)
6. Revolutionary (Todd Pletcher/Calvin Borel)
7. Lines of Battle (Aidan O’Brien/Ryan Moore)
8. Vyjack (Rudy Rodriguez/Garrett Gomez)
9. Will Take Charge (D. Wayne Lukas/Jon Court)
10. Itsmyluckyday (Eddie Plesa Jr./Elvis Trujillo)
11. Govenor Charlie (Bob Baffert/Martin Garcia)
12. Black Onyx (Kelly Breen/Joe Bravo)
13. Palace Malice (Todd Pletcher/Mike Smith)
14. Normandy Invasion (Chad Brown/Javier Castellano)
15. Frac Daddy (Ken McPeek/V. Lebron)
16. Mylute (Tom Amoss/Rosie Napravnik)
17. Oxbow (D. Wayne Lukas/Gary Stevens)
18. Falling Sky (John Terranova/Luis Saez)
19. Charming Kitten (Todd Pletcher/Edgar Prado)
20. Winning Cause (Todd Pletcher) -- Doubtful
------------------------------------------------------------------
21. Forty Tales (Todd Pletcher) -- Doubtful
22. Code West (Bob Baffert/TBA)
23. Tiz a Minister (Paul Aguirre/Joe Talamo)
24. Golden Soul (Dallas Stewart/BJ Hernandez)

Sightseek 04-23-2013 06:21 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by tjfla (Post 924939)
Charming Kitten IN
Strong prep for the Virginia Derby.

Danzig 04-24-2013 01:31 PM
pletcher says he will decide on winning cause in the derby after the colt breezes sunday. would be something if he had about 1/3 of the field and still didn't win.

hi_im_god 04-25-2013 03:52 PM
steve-

by virtue of his two 3rd place finishes during the two year old "prep season" (frontrunner and bc juvi), capo bastone would actually leapfrog charming kitten into 19th place if he wins the trial. he carries 4 points into that race.

has pletcher ruled him out a week later?

Kasept 04-27-2013 04:11 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by hi_im_god (Post 925169)
steve-

by virtue of his two 3rd place finishes during the two year old "prep season" (frontrunner and bc juvi), capo bastone would actually leapfrog charming kitten into 19th place if he wins the trial. he carries 4 points into that race.

has pletcher ruled him out a week later?
Welsch talked to Pletcher Thursday and was told they wouldn't go Derby with Capo Bastone if were to win the Trial. Also said Winning Cause is highly unlikely for Derby too.

Kasept 04-27-2013 04:11 PM
SUNDAY DERBY/OAKS UPDATE: http://www.kentuckyderby.com/sites/k...s%20Update.pdf


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