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-   -   McKee Blew it! (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=4848)

Pointg5 09-24-2006 05:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dalakhani
The difference is that Henny ran a ridiculous fig and also has beaten decent horses in the past. Can you say the same about lawyer Ron?

Let's see what the fig comes back for yesterday's race...Will you admit you are wrong if it is high?

dalakhani 09-24-2006 05:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danzig188
ok, so bernardini and lawyer ron both can claim victories over high cotton...
lol sounds like they've both beat the same horses to me!!

yeah, but bernadini also can claim wins over sweetnorthernsaint, brother derek and bluegrasscat.

I know, i know...those horse arent anywhere close to high cotton but i had to give it a shot.

kentuckyrosesinmay 09-24-2006 05:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gander
Strong Contender had a brutal trip in the Haskell. Watch the replay. All his naysayers said he could only win going one turn, that he was a very bad 0 for 2 going 2 turns so he was a toss out yesterday. LOL! Tossout. This horse has a legit chance if there is a wicked pace in the Classic.

Congrats on having SC yesterday Gander. I just went back and watched the replay of the Haskell. I should have watched it before the Super Derby yesterday. You were right, SC's trip was brutal especially in the first half of the race. SC almost got up for second in a race that most horses would have never had a chance in after a trip like that...

dalakhani 09-24-2006 05:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pointg5
Let's see what the fig comes back for yesterday's race...Will you admit you are wrong if it is high?

Wrong about what?

kentuckyrosesinmay 09-24-2006 05:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pointg5
Let's see what the fig comes back for yesterday's race...Will you admit you are wrong if it is high?

I have a feeling that both horses BSFs are going to be nice...

Rupert Pupkin 09-24-2006 05:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dalakhani
I disagree. There have been plenty of horses that have made false reputations against bad horses. Happens every year.

And even going by your line of thinking, what was so impressive about LR's races anyway? He has beyered over 100 but twice going into yesterday's race.

I can think of a few horses like that this year and last year. Bob and John won the Wood Memorial even though he's nothing special. Point Determined won a graded stakes race at Hollywood and he's not much horse. Private Vow won a couple of big races last year. I was never impressed with him.

I wasn't particularly impressed with Jazil's Belmont win. That race played very weak.

Lawyer Ron is better than any of those horses although he can't run 1 1/2 miles like Jazil. With regard to his speed figures, I hear that his sheet figures were actually very good in the Arkansas races. The sheets rated those races much higher than Beyer did.

Danzig 09-24-2006 05:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dalakhani
yeah, but bernadini also can claim wins over sweetnorthernsaint, brother derek and bluegrasscat.

I know, i know...those horse arent anywhere close to high cotton but i had to give it a shot.

sinister minister can say the same about bluegrass cat, cindago about brother derek, and like now about sweetnorthernsaint. see what happens when you start looking at who beat whom??

dalakhani 09-24-2006 05:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kentuckyrosesinmay
I have a feeling that both horses BSFs are going to be nice...

And why would you think that? Do you know how to make figs? That number is going to be a crapshoot.

dalakhani 09-24-2006 05:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danzig188
sinister minister can say the same about bluegrass cat, cindago about brother derek, and like now about sweetnorthernsaint. see what happens when you start looking at who beat whom??

But can any of those horses say they beat ALL of them?????

dalakhani 09-24-2006 05:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin
I can think of a few horses like that this year and last year. Bob and John won the Wood Memorial even though he's nothing special. Point Determined won a graded stakes race at Hollywood and he's not much horse. Private Vow won a couple of big races last year. I was never impressed with him.

I wasn't particularly impressed with Jazil's Belmont win. That race played very weak.

Lawyer Ron is better than any of those horses although he can't run 1 1/2 miles like Jazil. With regard to his speed figures, I hear that his sheet figures were actually very good in the Arkansas races. The sheets rated those races much higher than Beyer did.

I think Beyer was right on this one.

Danzig 09-24-2006 05:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dalakhani
But can any of those horses say they beat ALL of them?????

yeah, the three year old who beat bernardini earlier this year!! he beat bern, who beat barbaro (technically) in the preakness, and barbaro beat them all in the derby!! and bern beat the rest in the travers...so yeah, it's that horse.

dalakhani 09-24-2006 05:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danzig188
yeah, the three year old who beat bernardini earlier this year!! he beat bern, who beat barbaro (technically) in the preakness, and barbaro beat them all in the derby!! and bern beat the rest in the travers...so yeah, it's that horse.

No he didnt. He beat Bernardini which is a different thing. He didnt beat all of those other horses.

Rupert Pupkin 09-24-2006 05:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dalakhani
The difference is that Henny ran a ridiculous fig and also has beaten decent horses in the past. Can you say the same about lawyer Ron?

Henny ran a 109 Beyer at Monmouth. Lawyer Ron ran a 106 once.

Who did Henny beat last year? I only ask you in gest so that you realize what a silly question it is. I know how good Henny Hughes is. It doesn't matter who he beat last year. I'm not sure if he beat any really good horses last year or not but it doesn't matter. He's a really good horse and he's probably the horse to beat in the BC Sprint. It doesn't matter who he's beaten, it's how he did it.

dalakhani 09-24-2006 05:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin
Henny ran a 109 Beyer at Monmouth. Lawyer Ron ran a 106 once.

Who did Henny beat last year? I only ask you in gest so that you realize what a silly question it is. I know how good Henny Hughes is. It doesn't matter who he beat last year. I'm not sure if he beat any really good horses last year or not but it doesn't matter. He's a really good horse and he's probably the horse to beat in the BC Sprint. It doesn't matter who he's beaten, it's how he did it.

Henny Hughes beat everyone but Stevie wonderboy in the BC juvey and he put up multiple performances that showed his quality.

But, I will definitely be betting against Henny this year in the BC sprint. I think he is a nice horse but will be overbet.

Danzig 09-24-2006 05:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dalakhani
No he didnt. He beat Bernardini which is a different thing. He didnt beat all of those other horses.


but if he beat the horse who beat all those horses, than he's the best, right?? lol

hey, i'm just having some fun at this point...but if you want to know who i think has beaten the most top three year olds, it's not lawyer ron or bernardini.

for the record, i don't think lawyer ron is one of the top three year olds, strong contender either. but every horse mentioned in this thread has faced a bit of everything. some win, and make money, like ron and bern, some don't.

Rupert Pupkin 09-24-2006 06:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dalakhani
Henny Hughes beat everyone but Stevie wonderboy in the BC juvey and he put up multiple performances that showed his quality.

But, I will definitely be betting against Henny this year in the BC sprint. I think he is a nice horse but will be overbet.

I think Henny is the horse to beat in the Sprint but I agree that he probably will be overbet. I wouldn't be anxious to take a short price on him against older horses.

DiscreetCat=Monster 09-24-2006 06:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin
I think Henny is the horse to beat in the Sprint but I agree that he probably will be overbet. I wouldn't be anxious to take a short price on him against older horses.

I think since Too Much Bling can rate or go 43 and change he has a huge advantage if he draws outside:D

Zoe 09-24-2006 06:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pointg5
Let's see he's had 2 races @ 1 1/8th, he's won one and run 2nd in the other(while setting fast fractions), the Derby is a throwout, because he came up hurt and was over the top with all of the racing. Please justify your statement, because you have no proof that he can't go that far....


Its just an opinion. I have no need to justify it. My impression is that this horse will be fine up to 1 1/8 miles, but I don't believe he can get the extra 1/8th mile at this time. If they ran him in the BC, its "my opinion" that he can't get the distance with the big horses.
And conversely,using your logic, he has not shown anything to suggest that he can get the distance.The Derby may be a "throwout", but the FACT of the matter is he has tried it once and was hammered.

DiscreetCat=Monster 09-24-2006 06:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zoe
Its just an opinion. I have no need to justify it. My impression is that this horse will be fine up to 1 1/8 miles, but I don't believe he can get the extra 1/8th mile at this time. If they ran him in the BC, its "my opinion" that he can't get the distance with the big horses.
And conversely,using your logic, he has not shown anything to suggest that he can get the distance.The Derby may be a "throwout", but the FACT of the matter is he has tried it once and was hammered.

The derby is a throw out watch him run up the backside and McKee can't get him to relax so he just about ran over like 5 horses:)

Gander 09-24-2006 06:55 PM

Thanks for watching the replay of the Haskell. I beg anyone who thinks Cacique and English Channel had bad trips in the Arl Million to watch the first part of the Haskell and Strong Contender. Please.

horseofcourse 09-25-2006 02:32 AM

Someone wanted to know who Lawyer Ron beat and was quite persistent...got the time??

Lewis Michael
Smokeyjonessutton
Point Determined...graded stakes winner
Steppenwolfer
Private Vow...graded stakes winner
HIgh Cotton...graded stakes winner
Simon Pure
Hyte Regency
Red Raymond
Mark of Success
Kip Deville
AP Warrior...graded stakes winner
Sharp Humor
Flashy Bull
Bob and John...graded stakes winner
Sinister Minister...graded stakes winner
Louisborg
Costa Rising
Saint Augustus
With a City...graded stakes winner
Music School
Keyed Entry...graded stakes winner
Cause to Believe...graded stakes winner
Sayhellotolarry
Well Said
Nob Hill Delite
Film Fortune
Celluloind Hero
Malameeze
Cielo Gold
More than Regal
LIke an Eagle
Casino Evil
Follow the Storm
Starspangled Gator
His Eyes

It's a meaningless list. My thoughts on the race. I dont' think McKee did the wrong thing. Trainers don't want horses to run loose on the lead anymore. What happened to Quincy Hamilton when he did that on Kip Deville?? I believe he was taken off the horse wasn't he? As others have said, the horse has rated in many races...even races he lead like the Risen Star. The connections said he rated very well in the St Louis Derby and he was way back early there as he was in the Rebel. For whatever reason he doesn't always do it. I think they felt they perhaps turned the corner last race and when he shot forward again...McKee I am sure was doing what he was instructed to do.

I like the horse. I don't know what the Beyer was, I am guessing that Strong Contender and Lawyer Ron will be in the 100 to 104 range perhaps? They aren't on the DRF leaderboard. The equibase figure for Lawyer Ron was a 107 which was right on the 108 he got for the St Louis Derby and he got a 103 Beyer in that one. I thought Lawyer Ron pretty much ran his race yesterday. Strong Contender was just better that race. I don't know if he is a 10f horse or not. I do know you can't just take the Ky Derby and say based on those results a horse can't go 10f. There were lots of good horses run clunkers in that race who could go 10f. Hansel, Skip Away, Point Given, Tabasco Cat even Holy Bull who eventually won the Travers come to mind. I agree with the writer who stated the Cigar Mile may be a better goal than the BC Classic. And I also agree that going 10f, Lawyer Ron isn't in the same galaxy as Bernardini...but I don't think any other 3 year olds are either. I don't think any older horses are either for that matter.

DiscreetCat=Monster 09-25-2006 03:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by horseofcourse
Someone wanted to know who Lawyer Ron beat and was quite persistent...got the time??

Lewis Michael
Smokeyjonessutton
Point Determined...graded stakes winner
Steppenwolfer
Private Vow...graded stakes winner
HIgh Cotton...graded stakes winner
Simon Pure
Hyte Regency
Red Raymond
Mark of Success
Kip Deville
AP Warrior...graded stakes winner
Sharp Humor
Flashy Bull
Bob and John...graded stakes winner
Sinister Minister...graded stakes winner
Louisborg
Costa Rising
Saint Augustus
With a City...graded stakes winner
Music School
Keyed Entry...graded stakes winner
Cause to Believe...graded stakes winner
Sayhellotolarry
Well Said
Nob Hill Delite
Film Fortune
Celluloind Hero
Malameeze
Cielo Gold
More than Regal
LIke an Eagle
Casino Evil
Follow the Storm
Starspangled Gator
His Eyes

It's a meaningless list. My thoughts on the race. I dont' think McKee did the wrong thing. Trainers don't want horses to run loose on the lead anymore. What happened to Quincy Hamilton when he did that on Kip Deville?? I believe he was taken off the horse wasn't he? As others have said, the horse has rated in many races...even races he lead like the Risen Star. The connections said he rated very well in the St Louis Derby and he was way back early there as he was in the Rebel. For whatever reason he doesn't always do it. I think they felt they perhaps turned the corner last race and when he shot forward again...McKee I am sure was doing what he was instructed to do.

I like the horse. I don't know what the Beyer was, I am guessing that Strong Contender and Lawyer Ron will be in the 100 to 104 range perhaps? They aren't on the DRF leaderboard. The equibase figure for Lawyer Ron was a 107 which was right on the 108 he got for the St Louis Derby and he got a 103 Beyer in that one. I thought Lawyer Ron pretty much ran his race yesterday. Strong Contender was just better that race. I don't know if he is a 10f horse or not. I do know you can't just take the Ky Derby and say based on those results a horse can't go 10f. There were lots of good horses run clunkers in that race who could go 10f. Hansel, Skip Away, Point Given, Tabasco Cat even Holy Bull who eventually won the Travers come to mind. I agree with the writer who stated the Cigar Mile may be a better goal than the BC Classic. And I also agree that going 10f, Lawyer Ron isn't in the same galaxy as Bernardini...but I don't think any other 3 year olds are either. I don't think any older horses are either for that matter.


This list must include his derby run when like 1/2 field after being slaughted for 3/4 of a mile never asked their horses to run and save them for another day, thats why that list is meaningless

horseofcourse 09-25-2006 03:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LOSE=GLUE
This list must include his derby run when like 1/2 field after being slaughted for 3/4 of a mile never asked their horses to run and save them for another day, thats why that list is meaningless

Exactly...it is meaningless, that happens every race pretty much. The question was asked who the horse beat. HE finished 12th that race, but he technically beat the 13th through 20th place finishers. Who knows how much he was asked to run either that race, perhaps he could have finished 10th or 11th and added a couple more to his extensive list!!!

SniperSB23 09-25-2006 12:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by merasmag
but i'm gonna haveto start posting some responses here-are you calling steppenwolfer SUSPECT?-lord my head is numb

I'm about the biggest Steppenwolfer fan on the planet but I think it is more than fair to call him suspect.

SniperSB23 09-25-2006 12:07 PM

No clue what Beyer did with the figure but the equibase number was a 109 for Strong Contender which translates to about a 95-99 Beyer.

Danzig2 09-25-2006 12:32 PM

no way...it's the fastest super derby at that distance, and a few ticks off the track record. beyer is going to be in the hundreds.

dalakhani 09-25-2006 12:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by merasmag
most of you know i LOVE lawyer ron, he is my rockhardten, my smarty, my male version of winning colors---i didn't see the race and that's probably a dam good thing- i wouldve either A-had a heart attack or 2-been barred from my beloved mud bug til after bc day-that's all i KNOW is the guy who placed my bet for me said he shoulda won, and that was the general consensus of the people there who would make most people here look like amateurs (then again, he also kept insisting the race was fixed, he was pretty drunk by the time i got there but he kept insisting all races at la downs are fixed, i know who huey long was, are races there more suspect then say...hawthorne?)

Of course "everyone" said he should have won. He was 4/5 and obviously the consensus bet him.

It was a clear victory by Strong Contender. Neither horse is all that good.

slotdirt 09-25-2006 02:02 PM

Sweetnorthernsaint is back working again....I'm hoping he can become the monster we all thought he could be pre-Derby. I think his Preakness performance, all things considered, was pretty brave. Many a horse would have gave up that day.

Gander 09-25-2006 02:34 PM

Merasq- Face it, you couldnt pick a winner after the race. Your so cold you make me look like I know what I am talking about. Please pick against Lava Man and say he has no shot in the BC.

Gander 09-25-2006 02:47 PM

I believe the Seahawks beat the Giants by 16 or 18 points. Not a football fan, just happened to see the highlights. I wish I could take a nap. Its 2 more hours of work then a pizza and Cold Stone for a huge shake. Its one of those days.


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