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Cunningham Racing 09-21-2006 10:53 AM
Oh, I forgot to mention:

Giacomo...no shot, Second of june..game but not good enough, Suave..actualy interesting with his best but he is too inconsistent for me and i doubt that he is a fighter...he should have beaten Magna Gaduate at CD in last year's Clark and was puerly out-gamed to the wire when he had aim and went by on the outside...but he likes CD and gets the distance..a little interesting underneath, Super Frolic ran huge in this race last year at like 60-1 but his best only puts him in TRIS and SUPERS, all of John Ward's horses are under-experienced and over-matched...


OH, I ALMOST FORGOT PERFECT DRIFT!!! - who I actually like to hit the board with Leparoux but he cannot win....Here is my TRI now:

Bernardini / Perfect Drift / Invasor

..as for last place finisher...well, you never know what cheap speed will be thrown in to the wolves and fade to last, but I really think Shirocco will run horribly on the dirt....Seek Gold might be the worst horse in the race, but his plodding style and the fact he'll get the distance and likes CD will allow him to pass a few tiring horses in the stretch....

:D

Cunningham Racing 09-21-2006 10:54 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pointg5
Anyone know what Joint Effort has been up to?

I doubt she makes the Distaff, but that's a CD specialist if I ever saw one...
I think they are freshening here...don't think shes hurt but I'll find out....She is also a one-turn specialist though too, so I doubt the 1 1/8-mile BC Distaff will be to her liking IMO..

Pointg5 09-21-2006 10:57 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cunningham Racing
I think they are freshening here...don't think shes hurt but I'll find out....She is also a one-turn specialist though too, so I doubt the 1 1/8-mile BC Distaff will be to her liking IMO..
I agree about the 1 turn, but she did not run well going 1 turn at Belmont...I don't think she would have a shot to win, but 2nd, 3rd, or 4th would not be out of the question, considering her love for the CD surface...Like I said, doubt she would run in the Distaff, but your post about looking for odd horses to run 2nd got me to thinking about her...

zippyneedsawin 09-21-2006 10:57 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by repent
yeah, I get your point,
but I would not compare Islington's 2003 campaign to what OB has faced this year.
she ran in the POW, Eclipse, Yorkshire Oaks, and Irish Champions before coming to the BC.
remember, a back problem kept her out of the King George that year and gave her a bit of a break.

OB has been in Hong Kong(2x since last year's BC), the Coronation(shirocco race), POW, Nassau, and the Irish Champions this year.
plus, she is going to run again before the BC.

you might be right, I just think its going to be tough for her to do as a 5YO what Islington did as a 4YO considering the difficulty of her 2006 campaign.
If she does, she is the definition of a supermare.

Alexandrova is in really good form right now and might be a little sharper for the BCFMT.
at least that is what I am counting on.


Repent

Are you sure OB is running again before the BC? I can't find it but I think I read an article quoting Ed Dunlop saying OB would get a break and then head to the BC. ( I hope she gets a little break)

Cunningham Racing 09-21-2006 11:24 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pointg5
I agree about the 1 turn, but she did not run well going 1 turn at Belmont...I don't think she would have a shot to win, but 2nd, 3rd, or 4th would not be out of the question, considering her love for the CD surface...Like I said, doubt she would run in the Distaff, but your post about looking for odd horses to run 2nd got me to thinking about her...
Yeah, good thinking.....I just have a feeling that if BERNARDINI crushes his rivals in the stretch, which is certainly foreseeable, then those types of races usually set up for a clunker to come in and complete the exacta because many horses will have had their heart broken by Bernardini in that scenario - and that Churchill Downs stretch is a LOOONG stretch to finish down if you are heartbroken with Bernardini running away from you at the top of the lane....that was the thought process behind that....

Bold Reasoning 09-21-2006 11:47 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by repent
see.
I dont even think of the Preakness when thinking Bernardini.

its Saratoga.

He was never asked at all in winning 2 of the most historically significant 3YO races on dirt.

this horse is a total freak.
he is what I think Mineshaft would have been if allowed to run on dirt as a 3 YO.
only difference is that this horse really has more natural speed than Mineshaft did.

there are no holes in his game.
any pace scenario is fine b/c he will just adapt.
hes smarter and faster than his peers.
at least the ones he has run against so far.

Repent
I agree completely. :D

kentuckyrosesinmay 09-21-2006 12:03 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cunningham Racing
Good stuff...

If I were forecasting a TRI, I would key Bernardini and try to beat a hard-campaigned Invasor, who will be hard to kepp of the board IMO if right, in the second spot with a real sleeper at a price that could get a good trip and love Churchill Downs....the first horse that comes to mind right now is Bright One if he were to run well in the Indiana Derby and show that 1 1/4 miles won't be an issue for him...he'd be 25-1 or more in the Classic...Good Reward could also close in for a piece at a price stretching back to around two-turns at 1 1/4 miles...I knew he'd run bad in the one-turn Brooklyn...Sweetnorthersaint has the ability to be my EXACTA hotrse but who knows where hes at right now in his training...Discreet Cat completes the exacta and may even challenge for the win with his best effort if he goes - but he won't...

Don't like Lava Man (pace, fade), or Sun King, or Flower Alley, or Premium Tap, or Jazil or really any of the Euros...jus don't see any prospects that asre either SUPER classy over there or have a maintrack pedgiree like Giant's Causeway did....If any have a shot it would be David Junior just because he is a Pleasant Tap but ALL of his Appleton family on the bottomside is grass..

Lawyer Ron wold be interesting to hit the board IF he steps forward and wins the Super Derby nicely...mostly the interest here is that he trains at CD and that is his home....I guess Buzzard's Bay is just done...Magnum is okay when he was a closer and sucked when they took him out of his gama and started putting him up on the pace....Cindago isn't ready yet....everything else out on the west coast is not much...

Hell, who have I left out?
I think that we won't see Buzzard's Bay again until next year... Don't expect him to be running again this year.

I like Sun King more than PD at this point. He is really, really coming into form, and is always right there when they hit the wire. I think that Sun King can beat Invasor in the Classic. He almost got him in the Whitney, one more jump...

I think that I would include Invasor in my Super...

I don't really like any of the others in this race besides Shirocco. If he goes and his grass form is converted onto the dirt...he's right there. Very talented animal.

I'll pass on the rest of the Euros for the moment, but I'll be watching them in addition to Flower Alley, LR, Premium Tap, and Bright One. If Pletcher throws Flower Alley in the race...beware. If he is entered, he will be ready...

I don't think that the rest are good enough or will be ready in time with the exception of Lava Man, but I don't like him in this spot.

And you all know how I feel about Bernardini...

Cunningham Racing 09-21-2006 12:12 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by kentuckyrosesinmay
If Pletcher throws Flower Alley in the race...beware. If he is entered, he will be ready...
That would be cruelty to animals for Pletcher to run this horse, who is clearly done and disinterested in racing, against a monster like Bernardini in the Classic...I doubt Pletcher does it...he got a good enough account of Bernardini's ability first hand when his star 3YO broke down trying to keep up with him....

kentuckyrosesinmay 09-21-2006 12:14 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cunningham Racing
That would be cruelty to animals for Pletcher to run this horse, who is clearly done and disinterested in racing, against a monster like Bernardini in the Classic...I doubt Pletcher does it...he got a good enough account of Bernardini's ability first hand when his star 3YO broke down trying to keep up with him....
Yeah, you are probably right...In no way do I think that FA could beat Bernardini, but if Pletcher enters him in the race, he will be ready for a big effort. I wouldn't expect him to enter him either, but I will be watching him...

blackthroatedwind 09-21-2006 12:15 PM
Was he also ready for a big effort when entered in the Woodward...or was that just a fake out?

Flower Alley's career is over. It was basically over when he didn't show up until half the year was over.....but now it's official. He couldn't beat two fat guys in a horse suit.

Cunningham Racing 09-21-2006 12:53 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
Was he also ready for a big effort when entered in the Woodward...or was that just a fake out?

Flower Alley's career is over. It was basically over when he didn't show up until half the year was over.....but now it's official. He couldn't beat two fat guys in a horse suit.
Exactly...everybody called me crazy and synical at the time when I stated that something was worng with Flower Alley earlier this year for him to start so late....people defended Pletcher saying that it was all scheduled, but i know what I saw wit my own two eyes when he was training the two weeks before the Derby...

When they didn't point him towards the Stephen Foster - the prestigious Grade 1 race at the same track the Breeders' Cup was going to be run at this year - I knew something wasn't right....that was as losical a start as any for a campaign for a 4yo horse that you felt was the incumbant handicap division leader...

he would have had a half-year off had he pointed for the Foster - more than enough freshening for a strong campaign....the fact that a horse of his stature had to come back in a weak contest at Monmouth WAY late in the season told me that he wasn't the same animal too....

Cajungator26 09-21-2006 01:05 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cunningham Racing
Exactly...everybody called me crazy and synical at the time when I stated that something was worng with Flower Alley earlier this year for him to start so late....people defended Pletcher saying that it was all scheduled, but i know what I saw wit my own two eyes when he was training the two weeks before the Derby...

When they didn't point him towards the Stephen Foster - the prestigious Grade 1 race at the same track the Breeders' Cup was going to be run at this year - I knew something wasn't right....that was as losical a start as any for a campaign for a 4yo horse that you felt was the incumbant handicap division leader...

he would have had a half-year off had he pointed for the Foster - more than enough freshening for a strong campaign....the fact that a horse of his stature had to come back in a weak contest at Monmouth WAY late in the season told me that he wasn't the same animal too....
Well, I for one never doubted what you were saying in regards to Flower Alley. To be honest, I wasn't impressed with him even after his 2nd in the BCC. (Sorry.)

SundayStar 09-21-2006 01:46 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by zippyneedsawin
Are you sure OB is running again before the BC? I can't find it but I think I read an article quoting Ed Dunlop saying OB would get a break and then head to the BC. ( I hope she gets a little break)

she's scheduled to run in a stakes race on the arc undercard.

Cunningham Racing 09-21-2006 02:00 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SundayStar
she's scheduled to run in a stakes race on the arc undercard.
Hell, why not just run in the Arc?

Sightseek 09-21-2006 02:06 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cunningham Racing
Hell, why not just run in the Arc?
Racing on the undercard must be there idea of a 'break' ;)

blackthroatedwind 09-21-2006 02:07 PM
I guess that means the Prix de L'Opera.

repent 09-21-2006 02:12 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cunningham Racing
Hell, why not just run in the Arc?

its a fair point,
that may be answered by what we have been discussing.
its already been a tough campaign.
and do you really want to run her at 12f, then cut her back in distance?

Dunlop said something about taking her home and seeing if the ground is "suitable" to giving her another prep before coming to the BC.
seems like hes just keeping the options open,
but I heard that she could very well face Alexandrova on the Arc undercard.


Repent

Danzig 09-21-2006 09:33 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
Was he also ready for a big effort when entered in the Woodward...or was that just a fake out?

Flower Alley's career is over. It was basically over when he didn't show up until half the year was over.....but now it's official. He couldn't beat two fat guys in a horse suit.
read a story the other day...pletcher said there have been 'some offers' regarding flower alley...he's done. i'm sure they will make some sort of an announcement in the ensuing weeks. i think the chances of flower alley running in the bcc are somewhere between slim and no.

Danzig 09-21-2006 09:36 PM
[quote=pdrift1]
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cunningham Racing
Oh, I forgot to mention:

Giacomo...no shot, Second of june..game but not good enough, Suave..actualy interesting with his best but he is too inconsistent for me and i doubt that he is a fighter...he should have beaten Magna Gaduate at CD in last year's Clark and was puerly out-gamed to the wire when he had aim and went by on the outside...but he likes CD and gets the distance..a little interesting underneath, Super Frolic ran huge in this race last year at like 60-1 but his best only puts him in TRIS and SUPERS, all of John Ward's horses are under-experienced and over-matched...


OH, I ALMOST FORGOT PERFECT DRIFT!!! - who I actually like to hit the board with Leparoux but he cannot win....Here is my TRI now:

Bernardini / Perfect Drift / Invasor

..as for last place finisher...well, you never know what cheap speed will be thrown in to the wolves and fade to last, but I really think Shirocco will run horribly on the dirt....Seek Gold might be the worst horse in the race, but his plodding style and the fact he'll get the distance and likes CD will allow him to pass a few tiring horses in the stretch....

:D[/QUOT

not sure if your being sarcastic about drift, i assume not but does he deserve to be in the bcc? i know he does but want your take since im debating this on another thread and i see you have him in your tri........and thats what i said about suave before also, inconsistent but if he he feels like running can run a huge race.
i'm not going to debate whether he belongs in there. i will say i'd be surprised if he hit the board, and i wouldn't bet on him to do so. maybe add him into a super, but a tri? probably not. of course there is still time between now and november, he'd have to work lights out at churchill and everyone else falter in the weeks leading up to the classic for me to think he has much of a shot. he's still good, but he's not as good as before. but, plenty of time left. not every horse currently headed toward churchill will be there. we all know that, or should! plenty of time to make up tickets...

pdrift1 09-21-2006 09:36 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cunningham Racing
Oh, I forgot to mention:

Giacomo...no shot, Second of june..game but not good enough, Suave..actualy interesting with his best but he is too inconsistent for me and i doubt that he is a fighter...he should have beaten Magna Gaduate at CD in last year's Clark and was puerly out-gamed to the wire when he had aim and went by on the outside...but he likes CD and gets the distance..a little interesting underneath, Super Frolic ran huge in this race last year at like 60-1 but his best only puts him in TRIS and SUPERS, all of John Ward's horses are under-experienced and over-matched...


OH, I ALMOST FORGOT PERFECT DRIFT!!! - who I actually like to hit the board with Leparoux but he cannot win....Here is my TRI now:

Bernardini / Perfect Drift / Invasor

..as for last place finisher...well, you never know what cheap speed will be thrown in to the wolves and fade to last, but I really think Shirocco will run horribly on the dirt....Seek Gold might be the worst horse in the race, but his plodding style and the fact he'll get the distance and likes CD will allow him to pass a few tiring horses in the stretch....

:D

not sure if your being sarcastic about drift, i assume not but does he deserve to be in the bcc? i know he does but want your take since im debating this on another thread and i see you have him in your tri........and thats what i said about suave before also, inconsistent but if he he feels like running can run a huge race.:)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Danzig 09-21-2006 09:39 PM
not quite sure how my post ended up BEFORE the one i just replied to....

pdrift1 09-21-2006 09:44 PM
[quote=Danzig188]
Quote:
Originally Posted by pdrift1

i'm not going to debate whether he belongs in there. i will say i'd be surprised if he hit the board, and i wouldn't bet on him to do so. maybe add him into a super, but a tri? probably not. of course there is still time between now and november, he'd have to work lights out at churchill and everyone else falter in the weeks leading up to the classic for me to think he has much of a shot. he's still good, but he's not as good as before. but, plenty of time left. not every horse currently headed toward churchill will be there. we all know that, or should! plenty of time to make up tickets...
i agree its only geting harder for him . and this will be a tuff race and he needs to pick things up heading in. but blackthroats comments about he should not even be in the bcc makes me laugh:D

pdrift1 09-21-2006 09:45 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Danzig188
not quite sure how my post ended up BEFORE the one i just replied to....

lol cause i erased it so i could quote it for cunningham , sry :)

Hwjb 09-22-2006 05:50 AM
Ouija Board is indeed set to contest the Prix de l'Opera, although I imagine connections will have second thoughts if conditions become swamp-like at Longchamp, which they have a tendency to do there.

Ouija Board did run in the Arc as a 3yo prior to winning the BCFMT, but it is worth bearing in mind that she'd had just 3 outings prior to the Arc that season, whereas this time around she's had 7.

The l'Opera could be something of a classic if it features the much-anticipated clash of generations between Alexandrova and Ouija Board. It would be a thriller, the edge perhaps just going to Ouija over 10f, although I very much fancy Alexandrova in the BCFMT with the added furlong in her favour.

Cunningham Racing 09-22-2006 09:07 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by pdrift1
not sure if your being sarcastic about drift, i assume not but does he deserve to be in the bcc? i know he does but want your take since im debating this on another thread and i see you have him in your tri........and thats what i said about suave before also, inconsistent but if he he feels like running can run a huge race.:)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Seriously, I like him to hit the board at a price..I really do...He should have won the Grade 1 Foster there earlier this year but hung at the end like usual...I know it wasn't a stellar group but he still was in total command in that race before giving it up on his own in the end......He LOVES Churchill Downs and has shown that he can run big on several occasions there....Remember his Derby?

Also, he is best at 1 1/4 miles and he'll get a great pace scenario here again....I used him last year to hit the TRI for some big cash....

There isn't a horse with more class in the race, and while he isn't as fast as he used to be, he is fast enough and consistent enough at this track and trip to hit the board here at a square price..

Remember, just because he doesn't win often doesn't mean he won't be right there at the wire...I know he won't win because he is a hanger, but he will be right there in the top 5...he loves finishing with the top flight....


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