They are supposedly looking at a 10f race next time out. I think the POW on 7/7.

The Prince of Wales's was today, you're thinking of the Eclipse. So You Think won. Not sure why they haven't taken on that horse yet. So You Think only has one more scheduled start before retiring, that being the Eclipse. So I'm guessing Frankel will conveniently opt for the 8f Sussex instead.

Maybe he'll stretch out at the end of the year in the Champion Stakes. Of course, they run the 8f Queen Elizabeth on the same day, so if he's still unbeaten at that point it won't be surprising to see another cop out.

Yeah, I got confused on the race names. Your predictions are most likely accurate too.

Sounds sporting. And likely.

Instead of the Classic, I would like to see Cecil bring him for the 11/2mi Turf. He gets the stretch out and stays on Turf.

If they were to try 12f, I'd rather it be the Arc.

Frankel very talented horse

but I dont follow European racing close enough to really rate him accurately plus when it seems every year there is a new "greatest horse ever" coming out of Europe it kind of tempers one enthusiam a bit.

Timeform numbers are pretty accurate considering timing of races there is kind of a joke but I don't know that sometimes hype doesn't affect those numbers a bit

IMO they will never even consider 1 1/2. Anywhere.

It does.

If you study Harbinger's best race (140) VS Frankel's (147) you'll see true absurdity.

Harbinger was undefeated at age 4 and had four Group wins that season -- in his 140 in the King George he won by 11 lengths.

* Second place finisher Cape Blanco was a 5-time Group 1 winner and came here and dominated our turf divison.

* Third place finisher Youmzain (beaten 14+ lengths) made over $5.3 million in earnings and was twice 2nd in the Arc.

* 4th place finisher Daraykana (beaten 15 lengths) was a Group 1 winner and had just been beaten a neck in Group 1 last out.

* 5th place finisher Workforce (Beaten 17 lengths) won the Arc next time out and had won the English Derby earlier in the year.

He also ran 5.41 full seconds faster (or about 33 full lengths) than the winner of the very next race on the same day at the same distance.

This all happened under perfect weather conditions and ground just like Frankel's win.

Both races were tremendously fast -- clearly the two fastest turf races I've ever seen that were clean (had a companion race to compare against on the same card and distance) 147 VS 140 would not jive on an American style figure. It's nonsense fueled by reputation of the winner.

Really not sure the reason for comparing them. Clearly, hype is part of it. Harbinger was far from unbeaten, had a nice small streak going, but nothing crazy. Frankel, on the other hand, has made a relative mockery of his competition on the regular. It's arguable that a relatively hype-less 140 for Harbinger stacks up well to the completely hyped 147.

Let's go farther - I hate these winning streaks. Loathe them. Frankel, Zenyatta, Black Caviar, etc...from a racing side of things, they drive connections into making decisions they wouldn't make had their horses lost by a nose in any of their previous races. Instead, there are some good aspects with press, etc., but the burden of maintaining the streak is what makes them so unbecoming.

They make a big deal about shipping Black Caviar 33 hours...oh the humanity. And what will they likely do right after, win or lose? Take her back home, despite the fact that she's beating the same sops, and it's the middle of winter. Meanwhile, they run the July Cup and Nunthorpe Stakes, two massive international G1 sprint races in the same country where she spent 33 GRUELING hours getting to...

I said he was undefeated at age 4.

There is a difference between a performer and a performance.

Any competent figure maker understands that. In this case, you're comparing performances and not performers.

But not for his entire career. The thrill just isn't the same, the hype is far from the same. I'll Have Another is undefeated at 3...but the maniacal buzz wasn't there because he had losses on his CV.

I agree, completely. But the figure makers are human, read the hype, hear the hype. It's tough.

I don't think so either. Just saying that I'd prefer the Arc over the BC Turf if they were going to chose to try it. And when it comes to wanting to see the horse step out of his comfort zone, I'd rather see him stretched to 10f versus good European horses than ship over here to try the BC Mile or Classic. I would like to see him stretched out. While he's brilliant and fun to watch, watching the same race over and over is starting to get a little boring. Right now, I still have to place him below recent stars Zarkava and Sea the Stars because they were able to win top class races at both 8f and 12f. Not saying he can't do it but they've proven it.

The only thing Frankel can do now to really increase his value is win the Breeders Cup Classic.

I think they will asses the risk/reward.

Unfortunately, he's got an undefeated record and he's got that Timeform greatest ever rating ... those are the type of things that make connections play keep-away -- especially in this era.

I guess it depends if they have any real interest in trying to make him into a US Stallion. If they don't, there will be no reason to run him in the Classic.

Doug,

You could pick so many holes in this logic, if I have time I'll propoerly respond - it was a fantastic performance by Harbinger but not absolutely unbelievable and - on the other hand Frankels was extraordinary and it was an absolutely privilege for me to be there at Ascot on Tuesday for it.

No, you can't.

There is a flaw here.

The Queen Anne and St. James's Palace are run on different parts of the Ascot racecourse. The Queen Anne is a straight mile, while the St. James's is run with a right-handed turn.

Thanks.

If you're going to run two separate Gr 1 races on the same day and distance ... leave it to the sh!t for brain Euro's to run them on two different parts of the course and waste an opportunity to make a clean comparison.

They are messed up the way they do things over there.

Regarding Harbinger's race...

2nd place finisher Cape Blanco's surrounding form:




5th place finisher Workforce's surrounding form:




The 3rd and 4th place finishers who split them are extremely honest Group 1 winning older horses.

The other race same day and distance went 33 lengths slower.

Cape Blanco beat this years 3-length Dubai World Cup winner Monterosso in the Irish Derby. He beat Twice Over and Rip Van Winkle into a pulp immediately after the Harbinger race.

Twice Over form:

Aside from the obvious lopsidedness of the vanquished foes, it seems visually that Harbinger was by far the more impressive of the two as well. Under an absolute hold while Cape Blanco and Workforce are committed to the front with a 1/4 mile left, makes short work of that pair when asked, hand-ridden while remaining in full stride to the wire.

IMO, the only reason Frankel won by the margin he did was that Excelebration, the only other horse in the race you could characterize as Group 1 material with a straight face, was taken completely out of his game. Normally, that colt is held up in the back. In every other start versus Frankel, he takes a stalking position behind that rival. In the Queen Anne, he's asked to sit close and match Frankel stride for stride throughout. A desperate (and futile) tactic that nearly costs him the runner-up spot.

Harbinger's 4-year-old form:




Obviously the form of a developing horse getting better with every race leading up to a giant performance.

Here is a look at the Hardwicke group Harbinger demolished in the race before he truly exploded:

* Duncan (2nd by 3.5 lengths) raced 7 more times after this race, winning 3 of them. Two Group 2 wins and a Group 1 win.

* Barshiba (3rd by 9.5 lengths) won a Group 2 next time out.

* Sans Frontieres (4th by 11 lengths) Raced 3 more times and won ALL 3 of those races. Took a Group 2 by 2.5 lengths at 14/1 odds next out. Took a Group 3 by 2.5 lengths next. Won a Group 1 in his final start.

* Redwood (5th by 11.75 lengths) He was in the top 3 in ALL of his next 7 races and all at the Group level. Here is his form going into the $5 million Dubai race where he finished 2nd in.




* Crowded House (6th by 15.5 lengths) He finished 2nd beaten less than a length in the Gr 1 Pacific Classic at Del Mar less than 3 months later.

* Petara Bay (7th by 17.5 lengths) He had two 4th's and a win in handicap races at odds of 7/1, 40/1, and 12/1 in his next 3 starts.

* Wajir (8th by 22 lengths) 6-for-16 lifetime and a multiple Group stakes winner. Last seen winning a race Meydan by almost 5 lengths.

* Jukebox Jury (9th by 22 lengths) Won 3 of his remaining 6 starts including a Group 1 win. He's 9-for-22 lifetime and a multiple Group 1 winner.

* Claremont (10th by 23 lengths) Won a race at Meydan at 10/1 odds in the 3rd start after this.

* South Easter (11th by 45 lengths) Was a distant 2nd in a 10-horse Group 3 next time out to Await The Dawn.

Ha when I have the time I will - you seem to be suggesting that the horses who ran actually ran up to their or near their best form, I can easily argue that none of the other 4 horses did (which isn't that inconceivable!)

We debated this a few days after the race. I'm sure a lot of people in Europe took your position on it at the time ... which is why you got 6-to-1 odds on Cape Blanco in his obliteration of the Irish Champions next out. It's why you got 6-to-1 on Workforce in the Arc next out.

The odds that all four of these extremely honest Group 1 winning horses simultaneously all picked the same day to run non-efforts is unlikely.

When coupled with the fact that the race went 33 lengths faster than the other race on the card -- that comparison tells the story.

Cape Blanco, Youmzain, Daryakana, and Workforce are all outstanding horses and they all ran very close to par on a day when the weather conditions were lovely

Harbinger was a dramatically improving 4-year-old who absolutely exploded. It was a truly great performance. Like I said though, there's a difference between performers and performances. Harbinger broke down in a workout after that and never raced again. He was not a great performer at age 3 like Frankel was either. I have no problem with anyone saying Frankel was the better horse. Overall, obviously he is. That's undisputed.