Originally Posted by 2Hot4TV (Post 657177)

Zenyatta only spotted the boys 3 pounds in the Classic and I was refering to RA racing Zenyatta at equal weight at 1 1/4.

RA had a nice go as a 3 yo, but I still dont see undefeated in her PPs.

Originally Posted by dalakhani (Post 657291)

If St Trinians isnt better than Jessica is Back (which itself is extremely questionable), i would wager most would agree that Zardana certainly is. No? Show me proof she is not. i dare you. :p

You can question my race watching ability all you want and no doubt it is certainly questionable (ask youbet!) but what was so much better about that performance yesterday? She faced weaker company than she had previously faced and she was able to draw off in the stretch. In her last race, replace unrivaled belle with jessica is back or that other nag from yesterday and Rachel does the exact same thing. How is this better? Because her speed fig came out higher?

I don't want to get deep in to this whole "who is better" thing. I am just saying that Rachel did what she was supposed to do yesterday and she did it stylishly but you aren't going to be able to tell anything about where she is until you put a real horse in there against her as opposed to the claimers she beat yesterday. Is that not a fair statement?

Originally Posted by Danzig (Post 657295)

not much of a difference, but don't they go 126/121 in the classic as far as weight goes?

Originally Posted by Sightseek (Post 657260)

I think the difference is that Zenyatta is at the top of her game and therefore could be in races like the Californian or pointed to the Gold Cup, Goodwood etc. and that is why most people are unsatisfied with her schedule.

I think most people who question her campaign do so out of a respect of Zenyatta's ability. She could be dominating races like the Grade 1s for males all year. At this point, I would take a shot against the Rail Trips and Blames of the equine world before I would run against the fillies and risk Zenyatta getting a terrible trip and one of the other fillies getting a dream trip and beating her.

Originally Posted by dalakhani (Post 657291)

If St Trinians isnt better than Jessica is Back (which itself is extremely questionable), i would wager most would agree that Zardana certainly is. No? Show me proof she is not. i dare you. :p

You can question my race watching ability all you want and no doubt it is certainly questionable (ask youbet!) but what was so much better about that performance yesterday? She faced weaker company than she had previously faced and she was able to draw off in the stretch. In her last race, replace unrivaled belle with jessica is back or that other nag from yesterday and Rachel does the exact same thing. How is this better? Because her speed fig came out higher?

I don't want to get deep in to this whole "who is better" thing. I am just saying that Rachel did what she was supposed to do yesterday and she did it stylishly but you aren't going to be able to tell anything about where she is until you put a real horse in there against her as opposed to the claimers she beat yesterday. Is that not a fair statement?

Originally Posted by Danzig (Post 657300)

i disagree. she may have managed a win rather than a scant second, but she seemed better to me yesterday than in her last two as well. we'll see how things go from here.

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985 (Post 657296)

On dirt, I think JIB would destroy ST, but ST is pretty solid on synthetics. Who knows who she comes back today though? She has a lot of issues and is pretty dam crooked.

Originally Posted by parsixfarms (Post 657298)

In Breeders Cup Classic, older males carry 126 and older females 123. 3YOs get a four pound allowance based on their age.

Originally Posted by parsixfarms (Post 657304)

Because of the significantly lower level of competition yesterday, it's hard to truly assess Rachel's performance yesterday versus her first two races this year. Do I think she improved over the Fair Grounds race and the La Troienne? Yes. Do I think "she's back" to where she was last year? No. Because of her running with her head cocked to the side, I still have nagging doubts about where she's at.

I hope that her connections point her to the Ruffian at Saratoga. To bite off something more than that would probably be doing Rachel a disservice at this time.

Originally Posted by Danzig (Post 657295)

not much of a difference, but don't they go 126/121 in the classic as far as weight goes? also, granted that the classic was definitely zenyatta's best field she faced, doesn't it mean something that gio ponti hasn't won since? summer bird ran third, who rachel beat by eight earlier in the year. i don't think the classic was any more difficult than the woodward, and rachel was a 3 yo, whereas zenyatta was five at the time. i don't think pointing to winning that race means a thing versus winning against older in the woodward.
as for her having a nice go at 3, but not being undefeated, she was undefeated at 3. not in her career, but last year, her year was just as perfect as zen's. and with more starts.

Originally Posted by Danzig (Post 657316)

i'd like to see rachel at 1 1/4 just to know. i have a hard time believing a 16th further than her preakness run would be her downfall.

Originally Posted by dalakhani (Post 657299)

I agree with everything you say. I think Zenyatta's connections could certainly have been more adventurous in their campaign. At the same time, tomorrow's race isn't a walkover. She is spotting serious weight to a short field of accomplished horses. As far as taking a shot against Rail Trip though, does that really do any good? Even beating Blame yesterday would have hardly made the necessary statement and I think Blame is the best older male running right now besides Quality Road. Winning at Saratoga or Belmont in late summer and early fall are the only way outside of the BC to make any real noise.

Originally Posted by 2Hot4TV (Post 657321)

Seem to me that at some point weight makes a differance and when Zenyatta is dragging 129 today with a mare like St. Trinians getting first run on a closer and has a brillant turn of foot, I think Z gets beat today.

Originally Posted by 2Hot4TV (Post 657321)

Seem to me that at some point weight makes a differance and when Zenyatta is dragging 129 today with a mare like St. Trinians getting first run on a closer and has a brillant turn of foot, I think Z gets beat today.

Originally Posted by Danzig (Post 657316)

i'd like to see rachel at 1 1/4 just to know. i have a hard time believing a 16th further than her preakness run would be her downfall.

Originally Posted by Travis Stone (Post 657331)

If the Preakness was another 16th she loses.

But there's no shame in being a horse who handles 9f... and can go longer under the right circumstances.

Ruffian only comes around once every few decades.

Originally Posted by CSC (Post 657326)

The only way I can see Zenyatta losing today is if Mike leaves her too much to do at the 1/4 pole, if St. Trinians or Zardana are within striking range she will run them down. I agree about St. Trinians getting first run and it will be interesting if she can maintain her run without expending too much energy to hold off the inevitable run by Zenyatta, the way Mitchell horses are running at this meet it does make this an interesting race to watch.

Originally Posted by kgar311 (Post 657325)

You really think that Zen beating the best older males on synthetics or even more so traveling across the country and beating the best older males on conventional dirt at Churchill Downs would have hardly made a statement??? Seriously???:zz: So your saying her winning either race would of been ho hum. I suggest you rethink that ridiculous comment. It EXACTLY what she needs to do to start making Necessary Statements if they want her to win HOY.

Originally Posted by dalakhani (Post 657354)

If she wins back to back BC's, regardless of whatever else happens, are you saying she wouldnt win HOY?

Originally Posted by dalakhani (Post 657354)

LOL She won the damn breeders cup classic last year and that wasnt enough was it? And I could probably come up with at least 100 posts from this board that downplayed that as if it wasnt that big of a deal. So now you are telling me that Im making ridiculous statements because I don't think beating Rail Trip on synthetic or Blame in the month of June would have enough bite to win an eclipse. Okay then.

Start Making nessecary statements? LOL She has got 3 races left tops including today. She is a 6 year old mare that was supposed to have already been retired. She makes a prep in the fall and then the bc. If she wins back to back BC's, regardless of whatever else happens, are you saying she wouldnt win HOY? And that being the case, why bother with these nonsense "statements" that have no real historical significance?

Originally Posted by ateamstupid (Post 657369)

As for Jessica Is Back vs. St Trinians, I don't think either is very good, but seeing the Zenlovers hedging and suddenly hyping up ST like she's Congaree is hilarious.

Originally Posted by kgar311 (Post 657375)

As far as I'm concerned zenyatta is not even in discussions for HOY at this point, what has she done do deserve it so far?? Nothing. She better start making any statement she can at this point. Another meatball schedule is not doing her any favors up till now. And another thing she is not even the front runner coming out of Cali right now for HOY, Rail Trip is ahead of her currently imo

Originally Posted by dean smith (Post 657395)

If Zenyatta does nothing but beat fields full of miniature ponies at county fairs the rest of the year and remains undefeated, they will give her HOY for lifetime achievement... or as an apology for the previous two years. Believe it.

Originally Posted by ateamstupid (Post 657400)

It'd be pretty damn hilarious (and telling) if Zenyatta went 20-for-20 and never won HOY.

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985 (Post 657401)

If she went 20-20, I think she would have to win the Classic this year, and that would assure her HOY....
But like Brian said above, he is simply wrong. QR and Blame are both legit, QR is actually far ahead right now for HOY IMO.

Originally Posted by ateamstupid (Post 657402)

I disagree that the Classic would assure her anything if they keep going the safe route. If QR wins the Donn, Met Mile, Whitney and Woodward, that would probably beat (essentially) just a BCC win.

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985 (Post 657403)

You know I am the biggest QR guy around, but I disagree.... If she wins the Classic this year, I would think she has to win it, but these are all huge ifs...For the record, I think QR is sitting on a MONSTER YEAR, and he will win HOY.

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985 (Post 657403)

You know I am the biggest QR guy around, but I disagree.... If she wins the Classic this year, I would think she has to win it, but these are all huge ifs...For the record, I think QR is sitting on a MONSTER YEAR, and he will win HOY.

Originally Posted by ateamstupid (Post 657405)

He's already had a great year, it's a shame they're only going to run him six times. And there's no way in hell he beats Zenyatta at 1 1/4.

Originally Posted by parsixfarms (Post 657393)

I haven't seen anyone on this thread compare St. Trinians to Congaree or any other top flight handicap horse. That being said, to equate beating the Wolfson-trained Jessica Is Back on non-Calder dirt to beating St. Trinians on synthetics is a huge stretch. After all, St. Trinians defeated Life Is Sweet over the same Pro-ride surface on which Life Is Sweet won the BC Distaff, and that performance made her the 3-1 favorite in the Big 'Cap. (If do I recall correctly, however, DrugS was on here extolling the virtues of St. Trinians last winter and fall as a synthetic freak that Zenyatta should legitimately fear.)

Originally Posted by NTamm1215 (Post 657409)

I think the doubts about Quality Road getting 10 furlongs are based on a fallacy, and that's that he was the same horse he was in 2009. I think that's largely untrue based on his last two races.

I find those that consider QR losing to Summer Bird twice as an indictment of his ability to get 10 furlongs are ignoring the circumstances. If you can't make adjustments or concessions for dull performances based on conditions or other independent factors you'll have a very hard time making money betting on thoroughbred racing.

NT

Originally Posted by ateamstupid (Post 657402)

I disagree that the Classic would assure her anything if they keep going the safe route. If QR wins the Donn, Met Mile, Whitney and Woodward, that would probably beat (essentially) just a BCC win.

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell (Post 657421)

Beating either of those horses is not an accomplishment that one should cherish.

Originally Posted by dean smith (Post 657423)

So, a 20-20 lifetime record and a head-to-head win vs. QR in the BCC (especially if the field includes RA...) would not be enough to win Zenyatta HOY? A second BCC in a row, btw.

Respectfully, you are high.

Unless the anti-West Coast bias is stronger than I thought.