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-   -   Noble's Promise: Did Willie Cost him at least a placing? (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=35895)

The Bid 05-04-2010 11:00 AM

Willie is the human sail. What an honest horse noble is. He coulda ran 3rd, but that was a monumental effort seeing he doesn't want to run anywhere near that far. I was really impressed w noble and icebox. Lucky also passed a lot of horses late after a terrible first half

After watching the race over and over I have come to the same conclusion I always come to. The majority of problems were caused by Kent dedumbeaux. How he remains a top rider i have no idea. No ride in derby was worse than dedumbeaux. Not only did he cause his horse to lose he also eliminated 3 others from being a factor. It was noberto arroyo-esque

CSC 05-04-2010 11:30 AM

I wonder what one of those 10 Owner's that paid 1K each for this colt thought of having Willie as their derby jockey? If I had been one of those Owner's you can bet 100% I would have said, "are you guys alright with having Willie as our Jock" If they didn't raise this question, they got what they deserved in the end. I'm not sold NP would have won the derby with a better ride, but it's hard not to surmise the difference a Borel would have had on him if he had been aboard.

NTamm1215 05-04-2010 11:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CSC (Post 643951)
I wonder what one of those 10 Owner's that paid 1K each for this colt thought of having Willie as their derby jockey? If I had been one of those Owner's you can bet 100% I would have said, "are you guys alright with having Willie as our Jock" If they didn't raise this question, they got what they deserved in the end. I'm not sold NP would have won the derby with a better ride, but it's hard not to surmise the difference a Borel would have had on him if he had been aboard.

Willie might be bad but the guy won a Grade I stake on the horse. You think any of those people basking in the glow of having a Derby starter had the wherewithal to say, hey, did you know Edgar Prado or Joe Bravo or Cornelio Velasquez are available? I doubt it.

NT

Coach Pants 05-04-2010 11:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CSC (Post 643951)
I wonder what one of those 10 Owner's that paid 1K each for this colt thought of having Willie as their derby jockey? If I had been one of those Owner's you can bet 100% I would have said, "are you guys alright with having Willie as our Jock" If they didn't raise this question, they got what they deserved in the end. I'm not sold NP would have won the derby with a better ride, but it's hard not to surmise the difference a Borel would have had on him if he had been aboard.

They were probably just happy to be there and not suffering from delusions of grandeur.

CSC 05-04-2010 11:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NTamm1215 (Post 643955)
Willie might be bad but the guy won a Grade I stake on the horse. You think any of those people basking in the glow of having a Derby starter had the wherewithal to say, hey, did you know Edgar Prado or Joe Bravo or Cornelio Velasquez are available? I doubt it.

NT

Yeah, but I would put Martinez just below Thompson as a Jockey. One has to wonder what Dublin could do with a better jock also.

randallscott35 05-04-2010 11:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CSC (Post 643958)
Yeah, but I would put Martinez just below Thompson as a Jockey. One has to wonder what Dublin could do with a better jock also.

You could put the Ice Man up on Dublin in the Preakness and he'll still be up the track.

CSC 05-04-2010 11:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Coach Pants (Post 643957)
They were probably just happy to be there and not suffering from delusions of grandeur.

Are you kidding, if I was there I'd want to win the whole thing, the hell with being a niceguy. I'd say to Mcpeek get me Ezpinoza or Cornelio V or you're out, atleast with these 2 you have a shot!

the_fat_man 05-04-2010 11:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CSC (Post 643961)
Are you kidding, if I was there I'd want to win the whole thing, the hell with being a niceguy. I'd say to Mcpeek get me Ezpinoza or Cornelio V or your out, atleast with these 2 you have a better shot!

You not the brightest light on the tree but even you shine brightly when it comes to those you are referencing. Do you really think any of the owners or McClueless have any idea what Willie has cost them? This is a joke. The dude cost them the BC and they keep riding him and taking what he tells them as being representative. They deserve everything they got. It's IDIOT comedy.

Coach Pants 05-04-2010 11:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CSC (Post 643961)
Are you kidding, if I was there I'd want to win the whole thing, the hell with being a niceguy. I'd say to Mcpeek get me Ezpinoza or Cornelio V or you're out, atleast with these 2 you have a shot!

Yeah sure.

CSC 05-04-2010 11:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the_fat_man (Post 643965)
You not the brightest light on the tree but even you shine brightly

This coming from you, is almost like a love letter...thanks I guess. Well we agree but don't get any closer to me, I may start feeling uncomfortable around here.

the_fat_man 05-04-2010 11:54 AM

Give me the full quote treatment. No editing.

CSC 05-04-2010 11:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by randallscott35 (Post 643960)
You could put the Ice Man up on Dublin in the Preakness and he'll still be up the track.

On an off track yes, but he's not that bad if Lukas doesn't end up ruining him. That's 2 weights he has to overcome, Lukas/Thompson. Not sure even Zenyatta could overcome these 2 10lbs weights.

Obcourse she could...But only her

dalakhani 05-04-2010 12:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by iamthelurker (Post 643902)
I have watched the replay and the head on, Willy pushed to make the gap between two tiring horses. Its clear as day he drops his hands back down after he splits them. He saw the upcoming logjam about to happen and avoided it. All in would of been a full hand ride from the 3/8ths on which he didnt do at all. He actually didnt even hit his horse until Super Saver shouldered him. So I think its you who should go watch the replay again.

I watched the replay and it becomes even more clear. He pushes the horse (and this was after he used the horse to get position in the first place). Perhaps you are right that he wasn't "all in" at that point but how many moves was that horse supposed to make? Was he trying to give him a breather and then make another move???? Maybe he wasn't "all in" but if you put 3/4th of your chip stack on the flop, you might as well be. No?

What happens if he doesnt make the move early and sits chilly until the end of the turn? Is it possible that a tiring horse on that sloppy track might not be able to hold the rail? And if thats the case, wouldn't that leave everyone else in the jam considering he still had opportunity for first run? SuperSaver sure doesnt get the same trip.

randallscott35 05-04-2010 12:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CSC (Post 643970)
On an off track yes, but he's not that bad if Lukas doesn't end up ruining him. That's 2 weights he has to overcome, Lukas/Thompson. Not sure even Zenyatta could overcome these 2 10lbs weights.

Obcourse she could...But only her

What makes you think he already isn't ruined?

The Bid 05-04-2010 12:23 PM

Dedumbeaux

cornhole

willie the sail matinez

Joe heel clipper bravo


Why don't they just tie 126lb sandbag onto them and pop the gates

ateamstupid 05-04-2010 01:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CSC (Post 643951)
I wonder what one of those 10 Owner's that paid 1K each for this colt thought of having Willie as their derby jockey? If I had been one of those Owner's you can bet 100% I would have said, "are you guys alright with having Willie as our Jock" If they didn't raise this question, they got what they deserved in the end. I'm not sold NP would have won the derby with a better ride, but it's hard not to surmise the difference a Borel would have had on him if he had been aboard.

Yeah, they "got what they deserved." A $63,000 check for fifth place in the Derby with a horse by effing Cuvee. I'd be pretty damn happy with that as my consolation prize since no horse by that sire is ever going to beat 15 horses in the Derby again.

Crown@club 05-04-2010 02:57 PM

I see that KYRIM is alive and well.

iamthelurker 05-04-2010 05:02 PM

This thread is starting to get ridiculous. We are talking about Noble's Promise. This horse, though talented, is not a classic winner nor will he ever be. He's talented enough to be a competitive stakes horse at a mile to a mile and an eighth at the most!

The emphasis on jockeys is also getting dumb too. Most of us sit here and countless times say its more the horse then the jockey, but then when peoples wallets get hurt they need to critique another human, better yet, a professional athlete. Because our picks couldnt of possibly been off right? I mean I really thought that son of Cuvee was for sure gonna relish the mile and a quarter!! No. Theres a reason riders are out there doing this and its not only because they are 115 pounds, its because they know more about riding a thoroughbred racehorse then anyone on here ever will. You cant have it both ways guys.

Cannon Shell 05-04-2010 05:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by randallscott35 (Post 643960)
You could put the Ice Man up on Dublin in the Preakness and he'll still be up the track.

George gervin was skinny but still couldnt do 126

dalakhani 05-04-2010 05:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by iamthelurker (Post 644117)
This thread is starting to get ridiculous. We are talking about Noble's Promise. This horse, though talented, is not a classic winner nor will he ever be. He's talented enough to be a competitive stakes horse at a mile to a mile and an eighth at the most!

The emphasis on jockeys is also getting dumb too. Most of us sit here and countless times say its more the horse then the jockey, but then when peoples wallets get hurt they need to critique another human, better yet, a professional athlete. Because our picks couldnt of possibly been off right? I mean I really thought that son of Cuvee was for sure gonna relish the mile and a quarter!! No. Theres a reason riders are out there doing this and its not only because they are 115 pounds, its because they know more about riding a thoroughbred racehorse then anyone on here ever will. You cant have it both ways guys.

I didn't have a dime on Nobles Promise and he didn't cost me anything. The move Willie Martinez made seemed premature and I thought it was enough to make a difference in not only his placing but also the way the race was run.

I don't care who his dad was although I think pointing out that he was sired by Cuvee makes the move all the more questionable. You seemed to have an intelligent argument but then you cop out by giving me the old "riders know more about riding a thoroughbred racehorse" line. I get that Willie is probably a lot better jockey than me or anyone else on this board but does that mean his ride in the biggest race in the world isn't up for discussion?

I don't discount the notion that regardless of what Willie had done, Noble's Promise may not have finished any better or even perhaps worse. However, in watching the race, it seemed to me that the race could have ended better for him and worse for the winner if he waits. Regardless of whether you agree or not, an objective analysis would at least leave open the possibility for better results with a different strategy. No?

Cannon Shell 05-04-2010 05:38 PM

Willie Shoemaker wouldnt have hit the board in the Derby on that horse.
Willie Carson couldnt get him to hit the board in the Epsom Derby either

gales0678 05-04-2010 05:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dalakhani (Post 644137)
I didn't have a dime on Nobles Promise and he didn't cost me anything. The move Willie Martinez made seemed premature and I thought it was enough to make a difference in not only his placing but also the way the race was run.

I don't care who his dad was although I think pointing out that he was sired by Cuvee makes the move all the more questionable. You seemed to have an intelligent argument but then you cop out by giving me the old "riders know more about riding a thoroughbred racehorse" line. I get that Willie is probably a lot better jockey than me or anyone else on this board but does that mean his ride in the biggest race in the world isn't up for discussion?

I don't discount the notion that regardless of what Willie had done, Noble's Promise may not have finished any better or even perhaps worse. However, in watching the race, it seemed to me that the race could have ended better for him and worse for the winner if he waits. Regardless of whether you agree or not, an objective analysis would at least leave open the possibility for better results with a different strategy. No?


well if you think willie's ride leaves some questions marks , check out R9 and tell me how you would feel if you owned a piece of musket man ........hold on , hold on , i gotta puke dala too many shots with kent d today

Cannon Shell 05-04-2010 05:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gales0678 (Post 644141)
well if you think willie's ride leaves some questions marks , check out R9 and tell me how you would feel if you owned a piece of musket man ........hold on , hold on , i gotta puke dala too many shots with kent d today

You let a dwarf drink you under the table?

gales0678 05-04-2010 05:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell (Post 644145)
You let a dwarf drink you under the table?



should have stuck to the beer chuck , mixing shots and watching my favorite horse being ridden like he was in a rodeo was just too much too take , where's coa when you need a good ride

outofthebox 05-04-2010 05:51 PM

I cant watch this race anymore..Watch closely people. Willie went by two stopping leaders into the slowest 1/4 of the race. His move i think is an optical illusion. He did not seperate himself from Super Saver on this so called move. Watch closely, he is sitting still on him as they reach the top of the stretch and the others are already lapped on him/ I just think like many here that he is surely not a classic distance colt at this time...

ateamstupid 05-04-2010 09:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by outofthebox (Post 644153)
I cant watch this race anymore..Watch closely people. Willie went by two stopping leaders into the slowest 1/4 of the race. His move i think is an optical illusion. He did not seperate himself from Super Saver on this so called move. Watch closely, he is sitting still on him as they reach the top of the stretch and the others are already lapped on him/ I just think like many here that he is surely not a classic distance colt at this time...

This is perfectly said. Unfortunately about four other people have said something similar and the discussion is still going on.

dalakhani 05-04-2010 09:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by outofthebox (Post 644153)
I cant watch this race anymore..Watch closely people. Willie went by two stopping leaders into the slowest 1/4 of the race. His move i think is an optical illusion. He did not seperate himself from Super Saver on this so called move. Watch closely, he is sitting still on him as they reach the top of the stretch and the others are already lapped on him/ I just think like many here that he is surely not a classic distance colt at this time...

So was Willie dropping his hands and scrubbing around the turn an optical illusion? It looks to me like he is clearly asking his horse midway around turn. I agree that when he passes the 12 and 20, he stops riding until the winner catches his up but by then he had already asked his horse twice.

You guys are missing the point. Whether the horse is a classic distance colt is immaterial. He may not be but if he isn't, why would you move then? If he is or if he isn't, waiting most likely changes the race anyway. There is no denying that.

Coach Pants 05-04-2010 10:28 PM

Unless you put a g to show on him I don't see why this debate is of any importance. And even then you're pushing it. Mules could go a faster final quarter than this horse. What? Waiting 3 god damn seconds is going to shave a second or more off his time?


Just shut up, ffs. So much god damn talk on this site after the fact. If most of you would talk about a race beforehand and post your opinion on who will win then maybe I could sit through this "what if" bulls.hit more often.

dalakhani 05-04-2010 10:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Coach Pants (Post 644221)
Unless you put a g to show on him I don't see why this debate is of any importance. And even then you're pushing it. Mules could go a faster final quarter than this horse. What? Waiting 3 god damn seconds is going to shave a second or more off his time?


Just shut up, ffs. So much god damn talk on this site after the fact. If most of you would talk about a race beforehand and post your opinion on who will win then maybe I could sit through this "what if" bulls.hit more often.

LOL alright guys i get it. Enough about Nobles Promise.

pba1817 05-04-2010 10:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Coach Pants (Post 644221)
Unless you put a g to show on him I don't see why this debate is of any importance. And even then you're pushing it. Mules could go a faster final quarter than this horse. What? Waiting 3 god damn seconds is going to shave a second or more off his time?


Just shut up, ffs. So much god damn talk on this site after the fact. If most of you would talk about a race beforehand and post your opinion on who will win then maybe I could sit through this "what if" bulls.hit more often.



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