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-   -   Keeneland Sale: 'Hip Watch' and running observations.. (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=31780)

Cannon Shell 09-15-2009 10:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by freddymo
Hip 325 RNA at 775k is someone who had no interest in selling. I figured that would be a filly that would be a must have..775k RNA in this market..she must look terrific.

Its a RNA, you have no idea if there was any live bids.

Cannon Shell 09-15-2009 10:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by freddymo
Last year that horse wouldn't have been in book 1 regardless how wonderful she looked. Dixie friggin Union 36 months ago his top seller was what 150k MAYBE.. Serious question...If Dixie Union hadn't had the vey recent success what is the real fig that horse sells for 200k TOPS right.. JustWhistleDixie made someone 300k.. Look imagine if you had a Birdstone..12 months ago you are looking at 75k for a his best now 400k?? You need a FuPeg? "They are on the discount rack like another can of beans" -B Joel

There were 4 DU filllies in book 1 last year. Recent sucess has pretty much nothing to do with it.

Cannon Shell 09-15-2009 10:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by freddymo
He doesn't bid on Coolemore period. No regulars are in the market..Respectfully the fact that you guys are even bidding on book 1 stock is terrific yet somewhat strange. I, with 4 other guys bid on a Gone West filly 4 years ago in Book 2 first day. We thought she would bring 200 to 250 we went to 325.. Jess bought her for 900 lol..Book 2 900 lol..Filly never ran a step!!

Actually Freddy all the regulars are in the market. There are very few new players.

freddymo 09-15-2009 10:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell
Actually Freddy all the regulars are in the market. There are very few new players.

I didn't suggest there was any new buyers just way fewer "regular" day 1 players.

asudevil 09-15-2009 10:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Riot
The Moss's were there yesterday. Baffert all around today. Romans' was looking at several.

Maybe they are waiting for the peds to change in the next books - it is kinda heavy with AP Indy, Giant's Causeway, Distorted Humor, Bernardini, Storm Cat, Unbridled's Song, etc.

A good number of Baffert clients are there.

Cannon Shell 09-15-2009 10:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by freddymo
I didn't suggest there was any new buyers just way fewer "regular" day 1 players.

Who is missing?

freddymo 09-15-2009 10:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell
There were 4 DU filllies in book 1 last year. Recent sucess has pretty much nothing to do with it.

Ok so Gone Astray and Just whistle had zero to do with it. Chuck Dixie Union has had the mighty Grasshopper, Dixie Chatter and High Friggin Cotton.. Now in the last week he has a 100 plus BSF filly and a 1mil g2 104 BSF winning. Not to mention he has had a heck of a shot at Lanes End. You want to sell me on how hot a stallion prospect he was until last week now? He is lucky he isn't in Florida.

freddymo 09-15-2009 10:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell
Who is missing?

Kelly, Padua, Moores, Melynck, Starlight, Evans, Skirura, Moss. Wygod Lael, Jone, Zayat, Dogwood, Tafel, Cox Southern MyMeadowview you need more? Up to you?

Cannon Shell 09-15-2009 10:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by freddymo
Ok so Gone Astray and Just whistle had zero to do with it. Chuck Dixie Union has had the mighty Grasshopper, Dixie Chatter and High Friggin Cotton.. Now in the last week he has a 100 plus BSF filly and a 1mil g2 104 BSF winning. Not to mention he has had a heck of a shot at Lanes End. You want to sell me on how hot a stallion prospect he was until last week now? He is lucky he isn't in Florida.

You really dont have any idea how this sales thing works do you?

Cannon Shell 09-15-2009 10:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by freddymo
Kelly, Padua, Moores, Melynck, Starlight, Evans, Skirura, Moss. Wygod Lael, Jone, Zayat, Dogwood, Tafel, Cox Southern MyMeadowview you need more? Up to you?

Who is Kelly?
Padua is there, selling. The Moores are there, Starlight has bought a few, Evans is a seller, Sikura is a seller, Moss is a seller, Lael has bought a few, Jones is a seller, Zayat is there (maybe saving his money to buy broodmares for his new stallions), Dogwood is not a big book 1 outfit, Tafel is a big book 1 buyer? Who is Cox, Southern Equine has well known money issues,

freddymo 09-15-2009 11:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell
You really dont have any idea how this sales thing works do you?

You can find 10 other horses as wonderful as the Dixie Union that went for 500k. I know way more about selling then you. I know that when something is recently successful that people try to copy it. If you don't think that last weekends results didn't substantially impact the bidding on anything Dixie Union then you seriously have no idea about human nature.

The dynamics of rigged sales is something that I recognize. You can't rig a Cappucino for 400k because it looks amazing. You can after 2 run off the screen the weekend before a sale. Chuck 2 Dixie Union's ran the two best races that a Dixie Union offspring had ever run within the last 14 days.. Ok so maybe Grasshoppers Travers was in that ilk but other then those 3 races and a few nice runs from Chatter and High Cotton. Dixie Union hasn't exactly been a must have.

freddymo 09-15-2009 11:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell
Who is Kelly?
Padua is there, selling. The Moores are there, Starlight has bought a few, Evans is a seller, Sikura is a seller, Moss is a seller, Lael has bought a few, Jones is a seller, Zayat is there (maybe saving his money to buy broodmares for his new stallions), Dogwood is not a big book 1 outfit, Tafel is a big book 1 buyer? Who is Cox, Southern Equine has well known money issues,

Tell you what grab the 06 07 results then get back to me with some
thoughts.. Evans, Sikura, Zayat, Dogwood, Jones. Jon and Sarah(since you were confused) Tafel(what did he spend like 3 mil between 05-07), Wygod, Moss's and Lewis's(how much did bob dying hurt?) not too much the lack of european support.

So now you are reporting that Padua, Sikura, Moss are sellers well in the past they had been buyers as well. When you rep Southern has money issues do you think it helps your post that the regs are present and accounted for???LOL you are making my point not yours.. I get it.. Fewer buyers fewer regulars less interest.. You see Keller going for the odd 1mil colt? lol

Nobody is saving money...Nobody is spending money even at depressed prices..Mo isn't doing anything different he just has zero competition now.

Cannon Shell 09-15-2009 11:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by freddymo
You can find 10 other horses as wonderful as the Dixie Union that went for 500k. I know way more about selling then you. I know that when something is recently successful that people try to copy it. If you don't think that last weekends results didn't substantially impact the bidding on anything Dixie Union then you seriously have no idea about human nature.

The dynamics of rigged sales is something that I recognize. You can't rig a Cappucino for 400k because it looks amazing. You can after 2 run off the screen the weekend before a sale. Chuck 2 Dixie Union's ran the two best races that a Dixie Union offspring had ever run within the last 14 days.. Ok so maybe Grasshoppers Travers was in that ilk but other then those 3 races and a few nice runs from Chatter and High Cotton. Dixie Union hasn't exactly been a must have.

1st of all, these horses are entered in this sale long ago. She was probably accepted for this part of the sale months ago. Her pedigree was easily of book one quality despite your issues with Dixie Union as a stallion. While Hotdixiechick's races and status are a positive, this particular filly was close to flawless as an individual, which is why she went for 500k. I can guarantee you Hermitage wasnt the underbidder.

As for your knowledge of selling I can only go by what you say. but your grasp of the sales is, well, limited at best.

freddymo 09-15-2009 11:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell
Who is Kelly?
Padua is there, selling. The Moores are there, Starlight has bought a few, Evans is a seller, Sikura is a seller, Moss is a seller, Lael has bought a few, Jones is a seller, Zayat is there (maybe saving his money to buy broodmares for his new stallions), Dogwood is not a big book 1 outfit, Tafel is a big book 1 buyer? Who is Cox, Southern Equine has well known money issues,


When you see Mr Hughes tell him I hope all is well..

freddymo 09-15-2009 11:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell
1st of all, these horses are entered in this sale long ago. She was probably accepted for this part of the sale months ago. Her pedigree was easily of book one quality despite your issues with Dixie Union as a stallion. While Hotdixiechick's races and status are a positive, this particular filly was close to flawless as an individual, which is why she went for 500k. I can guarantee you Hermitage wasnt the underbidder.

As for your knowledge of selling I can only go by what you say. but your grasp of the sales is, well, limited at best.


Terrific she was a smoking hot Dixie Union alert the friggin media..When was the last Dixie Union to run a 100plus BSF or win a graded 3 never mind grade 1race. Answer this question if Mr. Farish asks for a Dixie Union or two to get in Book 1 you think he has enough juice to slip one in?

Without Just whistle and to a seller extent Gone Astray winning huge there is zero chance that filly sells for close to that fig. And why would Mo be so excited to get a "Flawless"(in 4 months she will look completely different anyway) filly for 500k when Dixie Union had thrown 5 years of frogs?

Cannon Shell 09-16-2009 12:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by freddymo
Terrific she was a smoking hot Dixie Union alert the friggin media..When was the last Dixie Union to run a 100plus BSF or win a graded 3 never mind grade 1race. Answer this question if Mr. Farish asks for a Dixie Union or two to get in Book 1 you think he has enough juice to slip one in?

Without Just whistle and to a seller extent Gone Astray winning huge there is zero chance that filly sells for close to that fig. And why would Mo be so excited to get a "Flawless"(in 4 months she will look completely different anyway) filly for 500k when Dixie Union had thrown 5 years of frogs?

Why do I bother...

Sightseek 09-16-2009 08:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell
Why do I bother...

See why I gave up a few pages ago? :o

Linny 09-16-2009 09:06 AM

The DU filly was accepted into Book 1 back in June. Granted JustWhistle was probably better regarded then than now, but she the people that assessed her clearly were correct. Yes, they were aided by HotDixie/Bold Union/Gone Astray are running huge in the last few weeks but in the end, they were right to put her in book one.
I hope the decsion to put her in book 1 was made by the same guy that put that $5k GC colt in book 1. They might offset and he might save his job.;)

As for who's buying, it's the usual book 1 people. Sure some folks that usually buy a notch down (the $75-200k crowd) could have stepped in and bought from book 1, but people at that level may be opting for the conservative route and looking for the "same type" horse hoping that it will now be available for only $30-125,000 or they may have looked at book 1 and assumed prices would be higher, and just not looked that closely into the horses.

At the high end, I guess some people would rather either race or train up to a 2yo sale than take a big loss. These yearlings were conceived in early '07 and the stud deals made as far back as late 2006, so you are looking at the products of some very high stud fees. Stud fees declined in 2008 and dropped sharply in '09, but those with yearlings this year are the ones taking the biggest hit.

brockguy 09-16-2009 11:58 AM

if someone has any cash lying around the place, could they purchase 667 (only $180,000) or 842 for me. Thanks!

GPK 09-16-2009 12:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by brockguy
if someone has any cash lying around the place, could they purchase 667 or 842 for me. Thanks!


Get a job and buy it your damn self. Damn illegals aliens always mooching off us hard working Americans.



































:)

brockguy 09-16-2009 04:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GPK
Get a job and buy it your damn self. Damn illegals aliens always mooching off us hard working Americans.

:)


I think I would need my job to pay 1,000 times more than it does to even consider it, but thats the dream.. And I do believe it isn't that big an issue to ship the horse to the Ireland from the sales.. I probably would keep it in the States though!

Scav 09-16-2009 06:36 PM

797 is about go through the ring and he was an absolute awesome individual, he was on a short list until xrays were viewed.

freddymo 09-16-2009 06:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav
797 is about go through the ring and he was an absolute awesome individual, he was on a short list until xrays were viewed.

Rachel failed to Vet twice

freddymo 09-16-2009 06:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav
797 is about go through the ring and he was an absolute awesome individual, he was on a short list until xrays were viewed.

What it go for?

Scav 09-16-2009 07:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by freddymo
What it go for?

105k I think, I heard Rachel had one issue in one leg, this Tapit had problems in all joints

Got beat out of one today, the other we passed on.

The Zappers are selling really really poorly

I saw all your people out here today, including Mr and Mrs Moss who had lunch right next to us.

Scav 09-16-2009 07:10 PM

Oh, and TV does Jon Court's wife no justice, she is pretty f'n hot in person.

GPK 09-16-2009 07:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav
Oh, and TV does Jon Court's wife no justice, she is pretty f'n hot in person.

Did you wear your white Derby Day suit today?:rolleyes:

Diver67 09-16-2009 07:27 PM

Zayat bought the Tapit, 797, at $130,000. He and Baffert were both buying today.

Scav 09-16-2009 07:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Diver67
Zayat bought the Tapit, 797, at $130,000. He and Baffert were both buying today.

Baffert almost got killed by 604 today. He didn't want Baffert anywhere near him. He was a good looking Zapper that went for 75k I think

Linny 09-16-2009 08:06 PM

Zapper was the most expensive new sire of his year and his babies have been less than stellar for all the attention they have gotten. I didn't thnk he's be a win early sire and the one I've seen run really well won at 8.5f on grass. It is costing him alot in the sales ring this year. They are generally nice looking but don't have a "sprinters" build. He may prove to be a better sire of 3yo's, but that doesn't help those with 2nd crop in the sales.

Merlinsky 09-17-2009 12:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav
Baffert almost got killed by 604 today. He didn't want Baffert anywhere near him. He was a good looking Zapper that went for 75k I think

Did he bust out a switchblade?

GBBob 09-17-2009 09:58 AM

We are bidding on 846 going in shortly

MaTH716 09-17-2009 10:05 AM

410,000

freddymo 09-17-2009 10:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav
105k I think, I heard Rachel had one issue in one leg, this Tapit had problems in all joints

Got beat out of one today, the other we passed on.

The Zappers are selling really really poorly

I saw all your people out here today, including Mr and Mrs Moss who had lunch right next to us.

You have your "go Zenyatta go" poster handy?

Kasept 09-17-2009 10:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by freddymo
You can find 10 other horses as wonderful as the Dixie Union that went for 500k. I know way more about selling then you. I know that when something is recently successful that people try to copy it. If you don't think that last weekends results didn't substantially impact the bidding on anything Dixie Union then you seriously have no idea about human nature.

A sidebar to the Dixie Union discussion the other day... Subject of Ray Paulick piece today:

But right in the middle of those five sires–which had 2009 stud fees ranging from a high of $250,000 for A.P. Indy, $125,000 each for Giant’s Causeway and Unbridled’s Song and $80,000 for Pulpit—is a stallion who is priced much more affordably and is quietly having his best year at stud, as represented by his offspring on the track and the sale ring. That stallion is Dixie Union, a multiple-American Graded Stakes-winning son of Dixieland Band who stands at Lane’s End Farm in Versailles, Ky. Dixie Union has been represented by six AGS winners of 2009 that have won eight AGS races.

http://www.paulickreport.com/blog/am...istling-dixie/

freddymo 09-17-2009 11:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept
A sidebar to the Dixie Union discussion the other day... Subject of Ray Paulick piece today:

But right in the middle of those five sires–which had 2009 stud fees ranging from a high of $250,000 for A.P. Indy, $125,000 each for Giant’s Causeway and Unbridled’s Song and $80,000 for Pulpit—is a stallion who is priced much more affordably and is quietly having his best year at stud, as represented by his offspring on the track and the sale ring. That stallion is Dixie Union, a multiple-American Graded Stakes-winning son of Dixieland Band who stands at Lane’s End Farm in Versailles, Ky. Dixie Union has been represented by six AGS winners of 2009 that have won eight AGS races.

http://www.paulickreport.com/blog/am...istling-dixie/


Naturally and since many have been doing so well this year people changed their value of him as a potential BIG horse stallion. Doesn't the opposite happen as well. Don't we see stallions get demoted all the time because they fail to produce desired results? But apparently the yearling that Chuck bid on would have sold for 500 regardless if DU was an icecube this year. Sometimes they are just so flawless as yearlings that people just have to have them.

Remember before last weekend the best Dixie Unions were Chattter, Grasshopper, and High Cotton.. I guess the buzz(because of Gone Astray and Whistle Dixie) is they he will be another Smart Strike type. Who tossed some ok runners the first 3,4 years and then exploded and hasn't looked back.

My one point to Chuck which he discounted (as usual) was that without the last weekend nobody would be putting to much stock on just a yearlings flawless looks.

Cannon Shell 09-17-2009 08:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by freddymo
Naturally and since many have been doing so well this year people changed their value of him as a potential BIG horse stallion. Doesn't the opposite happen as well. Don't we see stallions get demoted all the time because they fail to produce desired results? But apparently the yearling that Chuck bid on would have sold for 500 regardless if DU was an icecube this year. Sometimes they are just so flawless as yearlings that people just have to have them.

Remember before last weekend the best Dixie Unions were Chattter, Grasshopper, and High Cotton.. I guess the buzz(because of Gone Astray and Whistle Dixie) is they he will be another Smart Strike type. Who tossed some ok runners the first 3,4 years and then exploded and hasn't looked back.

My one point to Chuck which he discounted (as usual) was that without the last weekend nobody would be putting to much stock on just a yearlings flawless looks.

Ridiclous. I discount what you say because you really have no understanding of what you are talking about.

freddymo 09-18-2009 01:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell
Ridiclous. I discount what you say because you really have no understanding of what you are talking about.

Those folks at Hermitage really turn out quality. I hope you guys do great with the new additions. Did you hear? Gone Astray will be standing at Lanes End...Not unlike wine futures, you can now purchase futures in Stallion results, get in early on the the Gone Astray's I figure with that Phipps blood they should be suited for Poly and AP for the '13 season.

freddymo 09-18-2009 01:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by freddymo
Naturally and since many have been doing so well this year people changed their value of him as a potential BIG horse stallion. Doesn't the opposite happen as well. Don't we see stallions get demoted all the time because they fail to produce desired results? But apparently the yearling that Chuck bid on would have sold for 500 regardless if DU was an icecube this year. Sometimes they are just so flawless as yearlings that people just have to have them.

Remember before last weekend the best Dixie Unions were Chattter, Grasshopper, and High Cotton.. I guess the buzz(because of Gone Astray and Whistle Dixie) is they he will be another Smart Strike type. Who tossed some ok runners the first 3,4 years and then exploded and hasn't looked back.

My one point to Chuck which he discounted (as usual) was that without the last weekend nobody would be putting to much stock on just a yearlings flawless looks.


Yep Dixie Union was on everyone's short list in '07..

The Indomitable DrugS 09-18-2009 02:07 AM

Dixie Union wasn't that much as a race horse .. and he's certainly never sired a horse nearly as good as himself.

I'll give you that much Freddy.

Hot Dixie Chick is a freak for a 2yo sprint filly ... but her dam Above Perfection was also a pure freak. Above Perfection ran Beyers of 80, 107, 101, and 112 in career starts #1, 2, 3, and 4.

Compare that to Hot Dixie Chick's 86, 100, 103, and 95 in starts 1 through 4.

Dixie Union's never had an offspring run a 108 Beyer or higher and I think his only two lifetime Grade 1 winners are Hot Dixie Chick and the immortal Dixie Chatter... who took an ugly version of the Norfolk over Salute the Sarge.

His best horse, the great Grasshopper, still has his N4X alw condition after 17 starts ... and his 3 race 2009 season consisted of embarassing defeats on all 3 different surfaces. He got beat 15 on dirt by Honest Man, 4 on turf by Gold Wonder, and 12 on synthetic by Parading.


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