I think this is the key point, it's a race at 1 1/2 and dare I say not too many breeders in America book their broodmares saying 'hey let's go out and breed a horse to win the Belmont'. I can see this race being condemned even before it has been run as a mediocre race. Perhaps I see it differently however to me I am not expecting a 3 yr old this early in his/her career to run 1 1/2 and beyer 105-110 carrying 126lbs. To me a realistic number is 98 - 100. Some horses will be stretching their stamina and my approach is not finding the fastest horse but one that can stay the longest, if you look at it that way that is a talent in itself which is appreciated certainly in Europe.

Hmmm...well you have a point. But isn't the Belmont traditionally different?

Sprinters/miler pedigrees can win the Kentucky Derby (Funny Cide, War Emblem, Smarty Jones, Big Brown), but they always seem to come up short in the Belmont to horses that were sired by more of a grinding type.

Tiznow was a grinding type of horse...AP Indy regularly won at classic distances and the Belmont...I don't remember what Jazil's sire did, but it seems that any Better Than Honour offspring will like a longer distance....Birdstone was by Grindstone who didn't win flashy, but he looked like the grinder type that could last forever....Sarava was by Wild Again who had won the BCC just like Tiznow.

But when you look at KD winners, like you said they don't necessarily come from long distance type families.

So maybe 10 furlongs is the limit for those sprinter/miler pedigree types, and 12 furlongs might be pushing it?

His mama is by Ap Indy and she won the ky oaks. His mama's mama is by Alydar.

His pedigree is fine for 12f. If he loses it won't be because of his genes.

That's true, I was only thinking of Unbridled's Song I guess.

Unfortunately the head on isn't very good so it doesn't capture the 2nd trouble point, but on Race Replays video at the 1:15 mark is the first point where Ocampo runs up on the heels almost of a tiring horse who's under pressure mid track. While that happens Rosier and Summer Bird get going on the outside getting the run on Flying Private when comparing trips. The 2nd point is at around 1:30 but since the Oaklawn head on video is horrendous, you can't see much.

Basically, the Pan Shot gives you a better view of how Ocampo runs up on Ziegfield who is stopping badly, forcing him to almost take up while Summer Bird commences his rally on the outside at the same time. Then, while Summer Bird has clear running on the outside, Ocampo has to wait and hold up Flying Private until he can get some running room. It's much better on the Pan Shot in terms of seeing the traffic issues that Flying Private had compared to Summer Bird. I realize Flying Private didn't kick a whole heck of a lot when he did get clear, but Lukas said in the article by Grening today that Flying Private is a long striding horse so that might explain why the trouble really hurt the colt. Just my opinion based on what I saw.

and of course most look to the dams side for stamina, the sire for speed-probably explains why sprinter/milers are generally more sought after in the breeding shed.

you will also want to compare the run Summer Bird made in the Derby from the blimp view and compare that to the run Flying Private made in the Preakness.
May as well figure it on paper as well.

It's a mistake to assume Flying Private's run was better because of the 102 Beyer. It's a judgement call you have to decide personally. Contrary to some, many?, I happen to think Summer Bird's run in the Derby was more impressive.

However, I really don't view either horse as a threat to run in the Belmont exacta.

You can't compare the two because the races unfolded on different tracks with different scenarios and so on. It's comparing apples to oranges. I am using the one race where the two of them ran against each other.

I am using the three fastest figure horses in the Belmont as those are the three who I think are the win contenders. Mine That Bird, Dunkirk, and Flying Private have run the fastest races and are the three that I think are win contenders.

Do you agree that the form of the Gulfstream Horses doesnt seem to be holding up?

Not even 1.

Something's wrong with this.

What? I don't like Dunkirk to win this race. I have not seen a horse win yet that ran at Gulfstream the weekend of the Florida Derby. I am anxiously awaiting the outcome of Nicanor's next race to base my final bet on.

Didn't Nicanor just break his maiden on grass at Delaware by 15 lengths.

-Big Drama ran in the Preakness. That was a pretty tall order (even though I loved him that day).

-This Ones for Phil ran only once since and he got a pretty bad trip and ran well to be 2nd behind a very impressive Mr Fantasy.

-Quality Road got injured and hasnt run once since.

-Nicanor broke his maiden winning by a pole.

I wouldnt rush to judgement on this group just yet.

Dunkirk beat Warriors Reward at GP, who came back to win an impressive Allowance race on Oaks day at Churchill.

Dunkirk beat Santana Six at GP, who finished a good second in a Stakes race at Monmouth last Saturday.

It's perfectly fine to not like Dunkirk. But to use "everyone at GP sucks" angle isn't going to get you very far.

Grade 1, $1 million Belmont Stakes


1
Chocolate Candy
J. Hollendorfer
G. Gomez
10-1

2
Dunkirk
T. Pletcher
J. Velazquez
4-1


3
Mr. Hot Stuff
E. Harty
E. Prado
15-1

4
Summer Bird
T. Ice
K. Desormeaux
12-1

5
Luv Gov
D.W. Lukas
M. Mena
20-1


6
Charitable Man
K. McLaughlin
A. Garcia
3-1

7
Mine That Bird
B. Woolley Jr.
C. Borel
2-1

8
Flying Private
D.W. Lukas
J. Leparoux
12-1


9
Miner's Escape
N. Zito
J. Lezcano
15-1


10
Brave Victory
N. Zito
R. Maragh
15-1

Thanks for posting these. I think the odds are pretty spot on. I do think Charitable Man and Mine that Bird will flip flop and Charitable man will be the post time favorite going off at about 9/5. Hes the talk of the town and the barn will be unloading on him.

listen your up in saratoga , i'm down here in mid-town , he may be the talk of the barn , but ,MTB is the talk of the town :eek: :eek:

I don't think there's any chance that any horse other than MTB is the favorite in this race. In fact, I think Eric Donovan's morning line of 2-1 is high.

NT

There's almost no chance that you're right - despite the amount of money the KMc barn usually bets.

I'm completely tossing Charitable Man... so I guess I hope he gets over bet.

Not going to do much with the race, thinking of a 3 horse $1 exacta and trifecta bet... Dunkirk, MTB & Flying Private (I know I may be crazy for this but I thought the horse showed some promise at Pimlico, should be able to get the distance and may be a price - could run third or maybe catch 2nd)


Also may put $20 on Dunkirk to win.

Thats about it.

What I miss most about working on the backstretch is the opportunity to unload on those low price, little chance, sure things.:rolleyes:

I would be absolutely and completely shocked if Dunkirk won this race.

who do you like for the race fat man?

you think its good that I'm tossing Charity man, right?

Not as shocked as I'd be if Summer Bird wins.

NT

You will be surprised at the amount of money Charitable man takes, and maybe I wont be right... but I will guarntee Charitable man will open as the favorite. The barn money will come early and in droves. I think he will off favored just like he did in the Peter Pan, a race where he figured to be 3rd choice behind IC And HB.

I dont really like his chances, despite the barn's confidence. I think he gets gunned down!

I liked it more when we used to disagree on almost everything...:rolleyes:

You realize that they won't just be taking bets in NY, right?

Yes, somebody told me that they arent restricting betting to just NY this year.

I dont think Mine that Bird has everybody convinced and many people hate taking 8/5 on a horse that they could have had for 55/1 five weeks ago.

He was 6-1 in the Preakness vs. a much tougher field and ran 2nd. . . I'm not crazy about him at such a low price, but he's definitely a deserving favorite and the most likely winner.

I would agree. He deserves to be favored and is a logical win candidiate. I wont be jumping aboard his train now, I'd rather rip my ticket up.
I like Dunkirk to win this race but will need every bit 7/2-4/1 to get really involved. Never been lucky in this race historically.

Could be a big 2 days for Pletcher. Hes got very logical horses in the 3 stakes on Friday and will have Munnings and I am sure a few others in Saturday's undercard.

I like Dunkirk too but I wish he had a bit more speed. . .

Mine that Bird is an awful bet on top in my opinion, does anyone believe his quick explosive move will be as effective on the Belmont's more gradual turns as it was at CD and Pim. If he runs well I think he will have to be closer to the pace and have more of a sustained run, I'm not even sure he is a good bottom exacta candidate...I'll use him in bets but really I'm not expecting much from him this Sat. If he proves me wrong I will be the first to admit it here.

Me too, but every time I look at a big race and it appears "paceless" it never ends up being so. I dont think the pace is going to be "Smarty like" but I think a few will go with Charitable Man making it a moderate pace. Never been a big fan of Dunkirk but hes the only one in here that makes sense to me at the price he will probably be. Should be a good race.

He was a damn good horse. In the exacta 14 out of 15 starts, running against an EXCELLENT crop (1988 3yo's), including wins in the Peter Pan, Dwyer, Super Derby, and 2nds in the BCC and Travers.

I would think that Summer Bird might be a good horse to use underneath in exotics, except for the fact that his jock just might pull him up 3/4 of the way through the race if it doesn't look like he'll win.....so as not to humilate him.....or something.

Or move him from 10th to 3rd down the backstretch to "get him in position."

KD has pulled that move twice in recent Grade I events. Ask Mr. Sidney and Hold Me Back how well it worked.

NT

I hope you backed your long love of Summer Bird - well done.

I'm just wondering if NTamm is still in shock (see his post above) - I'm just kidding I didn't like the horse either. :D