Interesting you mention Giacomo, I wouldn't touch Giacomo after his derby win because you know he was benefitting from a pace meltdown, he was a very ordinary horse. In essence the race fell into his lap, now on the otherhand MTB had a lot of factors go his way, Join The Dance setting a good pace, the off track but and despite these factors I am more inclined to give him much more credit for earning his derby more than Giacomo did.

You cannot dismiss that tgraph tapped him as one of the few eligible for a new top . And MTB delivered that top . It seems he will probably be a couple of points off that top in the Preakness but that might be good enough to win . We need to look at the form cycle for horses ready for a new top for the Preakness.

I imagine before the Sunland Derby they probably expected not have the earnings to get into the Derby...

Instead of being like "well we're definately getting in on our 108K or whatever and lets fix this race so we get good odds and stun all those rich folk in Kentucky"

Marty is getting crazier by the day (no offense buddy).

musket man is now confirmed after a gallop this morning at monmouth. he'll ship to pimlico next friday.

Agree with most of this, except for the part about the ride in the BCJ... I bet him a little in that race hoping he'd move forward off the Grey and he really did nothing, he ran the same race (think he paired 8's off the top of my head?)- I can't fault the ride.

This is true. He still needed to improve 8-10 lengths, however. Not impossible but it's a lot to ask in the Derby.
He probably regresses back to a 4-5 range assuming the track is dry, which wouldn't be good enough to win- but a 1-2 might be.

10 now set.

Confirmed:
1. Mine That Bird
2. Big Drama
3. Papa Clem
4. Hull
5. Flying Private
6. Take the Points
7. Musket Man
8. Terrain
9. General Quarters
10. Friesen Fire

Likely/Possible:
Rachel Alexandra
Conservative
Tone It Down

Derby runners considering:
Pioneerof the Nile

i read that the winner of tesio was a possible. any news on him?

I wonder why Chocolate Candy isn't even a possible.

i think they want to go to the belmont

i believe he and one or two others are skipping md in favor of the belmont. musket man is running next saturday, and then i guess will take a break and point to the haskell.

Not coming. Zito said he didn't like the short turnaround.

General Quarters has committed.

If McCarthy hurries, he can maybe run Saturday in the Lone Star Derby too. They're going to have to drag him out of the spotlight... with his teeth marks on it.

Oh my God.

Why aren't we saying the same thing about Stute, Lukas, Ryan, Baffert or Jones? It's OK for all of them to run back in two weeks, but not McCarthy? I'd do the same thing with my one horse, as long as he was sound.

Pointing for Belmont instead. Came out of Derby in good shape.

Why do you tempt me with stuff like this?

:D

Any word on charitable Man? Is he running this weekend in the Peter Pan instead?

Hes entered in the Peter Pan...

http://equibase.com/static/entry/BEL050909USA-EQB.html

I think the answer to the favorite is Rachel Alexandra...

Is this is the earliest that race has ever been run? Isn't usually Memorial Day weekend or the week before? This is before the Preakness :eek:

No, it used to be run on Preakness Day, but last year they moved it to the week before. I'm guessing because trainers didn't like only having three weeks before the Belmont.

It's only been run then just the last few years, ten years ago and back it was run on Memorial Day weekend.

He actually said something that made sense for the first time in, ever. Give him some credit here.

Yeah but he said it like the TG guys called the winner. I'm pretty sure this is what they said:

"was relatively slow at two, and finally moved forward last time. There is nothing wrong with this pattern, and with rest he has a good chance to run a new top now -- but he would need an enormous jump to be competitive."

coa had a choice of mounts, opting to remain with musket man over big drama, who will now have jonnie v in the irons.

Correct- TG guys were well off the mark, as most of us were, but I didn't get that out of what he wrote. He just stated that TG at least predicted a decent run whereas he was the consensus choice to finish last.

In fact, I said he was even money to finish last. :o

I think it is quite apparent the connections had no intention of running in the Derby. They bought the horse with hopes of running in the lucrative Sunland 3 yr old raced focusing on the Sunland Derby and if all went well there perhaps the Belmont Stakes. There was great uproar over Dunkirk's 150,000 graded earnings not being enough. At the start of 2009, with the 138,000 graded earnings of Mine That Bird I'm sure the connections weren't thinking that was enough and they made no attempt to run in a graded race. For anyone to say they weren't trying in the Sunland races is absolutely nuts. Those races were the reason they purchased the horse. A win in the Sunland Derby would have earned them more than what they paid for him.

Once the calvacade of injuries started...lo and behold they actually had enough graded earnings to get in the Derby and the legendary left footed drive to Louisville commenced. Their only goal in the Derby was to not get embarrased and finish top 10 and do enough to move on to the Belmont Stakes. Things changed.

while its obvious this will be Rachel Alexandra's toughest race ever...

I wonder what her racing style will be with Big Drama and speed in that race... Hope she doesnt get caught up in a speed duel and fades.. but she might even be good enough to be in a speed duel and still put them away and win by open lengths.

lori if there is a wicked speed duel why wouldn't MTB be able to come off the pace and beat her ?

didnt she sit just off the pace in the Oaks...

hopefully she relaxes in this race and doesnt get caught up.

to be honest I dont think Pimlico fits MTB's style and even if the speed got caught up someone else would probably win...

Unless of course the track is made of soup again.

Because Mine That Bird isn't that good of a horse when he's not running in the mud, saving ground with a rail skimming ride by Borel. Borel rode the horse perfectly on that day. Chances are the horse is no where near as good as he showed last week and will never run to that level again without the optimal setup that he received last week. I guess he could but others are more likelier.

i hear what you are saying but the fractions in the preakness with RA and Big Drama could be just as quick , why wouldn't that help a horse that comes off the pace , assuming that's what the connections tell the new jock to do?

if the race falls apart because of pace , why can't he win again, if he runs back to his new top

don't 3 yr olds usually pair up? he ran two low 80's at Sunland , now he has a 105 off track or not why are we to believe that he can't repeat that beyer effort?

There is a monkey wrench in the RA to Preakness plan that just occurred to me. Since she needs to be supplemented, she will automatically be LAST on the preference list. If 14 go, she could be excluded. It's highly unlikely, but possible given the Derby results.

Didn't see this here - FF is a go.

http://www.drf.com/news/article/103575.html

I think Coach had this one right- it ain't his foot that's ailing, it's Jones' ego.

That would be really interesting and I wonder if a trainer of a contender would consider entering another horse or two just to shut her out.