It wouldn't have been misunderstood for long, what with you setting the record straight for us and all.

Watching Calvin's interview again and thinking about what he meant reveals a few possible reasons for his gelding's success.

1) The track took the heart out of almost all of them over 10F's except his horse whom he saved til the last quarter as he was so far back after the initial half he was out of the picture but his horse hadn't started the race yet. Classic tortise and hare stuff....

2) The time, though slow, is irrelevant as this Derby was won by racing strategy not speed but stamina over a last 1/4 while MTB must have run ridiculous time for the 1/4, 1/2 and 6f's splits showing how occasionally over rated ES is on tiring tracks and poly quick sand.

3) "Fatigue makes cowards of us all" doesn't just apply to football player's

4) Calvin was right on the money when he said his was the only one running at he end......an obvious strategy the "slow minded" southern connections used to the detriment of faster smarter more expensive colts in the race.

"Intelligence is taking the same information available to everyone else and doing something different with it than most to achieve an outcome nobody else could attain"......

I was fortunate enough to watch this race from the winners circle... I was dry until immediately after the race.

Birdstone is 23% with mud starters. My sister was looking for a longshot, when she mentioned MTB I told her he should be a million to one. I should have kept my mouth shut.

I think the Giacomo syndrome is still hanging around. And next year will be no different after this result.

Photo of Mine That Bird on the turn:

http://sports.yahoo.com/rah/gallery;...th_kentuck%3A1

i could not agree more. well said.

:p i can't wait to hear what john white has to say?

I agree. He was 99-1 at William Hill in the U.K. But lets not forget the makeup of the crowd on Derby Day; many of whom cannot read a DRF or track program past performance. Let's not forget Rick's Natural Star was only 50-1 in the BC Turf a few years ago and actually had more win money than a Grade 1 winning Marlin.

Funny you mention BC, 4/6 on synthetics, can anyone say HELLO SANTA ANITA.

:rolleyes:

oh boy!

race shape, and set up too fast/too forward....

combined with a lone horse running a separate optimal race and winning a gamble on a fortunate rail trip.

and the much-the-best horse running a no-show while supposedly injured

and the 3 other possibly good 10 furlong horses (dunkirk,desert party,chocolate candy) turned out to be mediocre or worse

Somebody paid them off?

I hope they paid them off AND bet Mine That Bird...

it was a handicappers nightmare and the type of race that some fan hits...

anyone who knew anything about wagering would play against pioneer in most tickets other than the coverage tickets.

I had Calvin's horse and Join in the Dance (the speed) grouped 3rd or 4th in a superfecta each, but that is the highest I could envision him running to.


One of the hardest things about trying to make money at the horses, is that if you want to safely build your bankroll, you can't bet a lot more on the fun races then on any other good valued race. That can be damn near impossible when you handicap a race for so long, and have been so accurate for the last two years, and have such a strong opinion. :wf

We won't mention any names :D

WTF are you talking about

he was the trainer at one point in the geldings career.

I guess I was asking WTF you were talking about, implying that I Want Revenge was scratched for a reason other than an injury.

LMAO :tro: :$:

What was the score,by the way?

3-2 caps! i was so mad about having to leave, about half an hour before the faceoff. thank god for sirius. people were looking at me kind of funny driving down the road, slapping the dashboard and yelling 'steckelllllllll!!". got home in time to see the last five minutes or so on t.v. watched the whole thing again last night when my son got home.

How was your price on Fresian Fire?:rolleyes: All you did was say how your price was getting ruined by all the scratches, now your taking shots at people who supported POTN. What did FF pay for 16th? or 18th?

he finished 18th, beat only flying private. larry jones was bitching after-this is why i'm retiring. oh, shut up and retire already.

Is anyone ready to concede that jockeys DO make a difference? If so, would you confess to including them in your handicapping strategy?

I seem to recall them being compared to trained monkeys who are just along for the ride, they can screw up a horse's chances and make them lose but they can't factor into a win or a robot could do the job.

Now what?

many times i don't even look at who's riding.
bill shoemaker could have risen from the dead to ride mine that bird, he'd have still been 50-1-and rightfully so.

calvin doesn't win every race with that ride you know. he has to have the horse to pull it off. it worked yesterday. everything came together for him and he got the brass ring.

I generally think track bias is overrated, but it seemed that the inside paths were clearly the place to be at Churchill yesterday.

Completely agree, it wasn't inside speed, just inside.

Kind of the way the old Keeneland played.

Well anyone with a realistic perception and a knowledge of how set ups, and race-shapes affect outcomes, can see that Borel won that race.

The problem with changing your handicapping strategy to revolve around jockeys is that this was one of the all-time greatest jockey influenced examples in the history of stakes races. The vast majority of races have much less if any influence from jockeys.

I think jockeys do have strengths and weaknesses and that it is illogical to preach race shapes and set ups and ignore jockeys altogether, but they don't deserve more than a small consideration.

It was a great trip no doubt and the ride was probably up there in greatest in derby history.

But does the horse get any credit? Sure...he freaked on a rail favoring sloppy track but he still freaked. That horse was much the best yesterday and it seemed to my eye that he wins with just an average trip and not the amazing one that he got. No?

No, he didn't freak.
With an Average trip he could have gotten anywhere from 10th- 4th

This horse is almost a complete unknown, it would be interesting to see if it was an Owner's decision to change Trainer's or Mandella's decision to not train him any further. Numbers aside, he was good in Canada last year, though not much to hang your hat on if you were a backer of the horse. Certainly not as low as 50-1.

Just curious, what about the other horses on the inside that Mine That Bird catapulted by on his way to victory.....why weren't they helped by the rail?

The winner got a 105 Beyer. If a healthy Quality Road and a healthy I Want Revenge had shown up, DrugS would have cashed his exacta, and only been whining that an impossible horse sucked up for third to cost him the tri and super.

The winner saved us from the most mediocre result in, at least, modern Derby history. But, relatively speaking, he still didn't run THAT well. He looked visually impressive, no doubt, but in many ways it was an illusion.

Well i will have to watch it again. Maybe i missed something. Looked to me like a horse won the derby yesterday by open lengths and it looked to me like he ran the best race of his life by at least 20 beyer points...but he didnt freak.

And you say with an average trip that he could have been...10th?

:wf :wf

Derby is over
 

turn the page next race!!

The race was an anamoly.

Calvin Borel took a risky gamble and it worked out into a hall of fame ride.
Friesan Fire was injured out of the gate and had a rough trip.

Friesan Fire's price sucked with underlays Pamplemousse, Quality Road and IWR all defecting, but obviously your post was meant to be a rhetorical snide remark, and you probably care/know little about a price.

Glad you liked the obvious underlay POTN, that pretty much says all that needs to be said about your horseplaying acumen.