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-   -   Dubai Carnival Contest II (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=27236)

viscount26 02-12-2009 07:17 AM

1. Warsaw

2. Jonquil Nap

3. Dynamic Style

4. City Style

5. JJ The Jet Plane

6. Rocks Off

7. Kirklees

brockguy 02-12-2009 10:54 AM

Not having a good day so far, summed up by Jet Express but hoping to turn things round down the stretch starting with Balcarce Nov and Jargelle!

brockguy 02-12-2009 11:25 AM

City Style looks like a nice horse -

JJ The Jet Plane should be far too strong for these but at 1-2 and first time on dirt, I have to lay him.. and I took a little bit of Terrific Challenge at 75-1!

brockguy 02-12-2009 11:54 AM

The real JJ didnt show up there, he might need the turf, but that would severly limit his options in the desert.

The big one coming up next - Godolphin hold all the aces here, but have to go with a price so each ways on Redding and Blues and Rock!

brockguy 02-12-2009 12:32 PM

one last chance today - Kirkless/Barbaricus/With Interest/Hello Morning Exacta Box!

PatCummings 02-12-2009 12:37 PM

In case anyone missed it, here's the story about Vineyard Haven's fourth place finish - here is the story with access to the chart.

http://dubairacenight.com/vineyard-h...n-dubai-debut/

PatCummings 02-12-2009 12:44 PM

Hoff - not bad on Mr. Brock - who ran into a ton of trouble at the top of the lane.

brockguy 02-12-2009 01:09 PM

Results after Day 6.

Able to get them up earlier than usual this week - A very good days action but I cant buy a winner at the moment:( . Anyway enough of me, Ian closes the gap on Jaripeo narrowly, but little change in the order at the top


Position Name This Weeks Score Running Total

1. Jaripeo, -40 +301.59
2. Viscount26 -7.92 +133.33
3. Pat Cummings -60 +5
4. No Chance To Dance -2.5 -72.5
5. Stickhorse, 0 -150
6. My Miss Storm Cat -40 -216.67
7. Linny, 0 -255.91
8. Peetsa -28 -268
9. Hickory Hill Hoff -80 -319.66
10. Brockguy -70 -366.25

my miss storm cat 02-18-2009 01:18 PM

R2... Glow Star (best bet cause Imbongi won't pay enough!) (alt. Stubbs Art)

R3... Honour Devil (alt. Little White Lie)

R4... will edit in or skip (but good luck to Instant Recall who will probably be 2nd).:)

R5... Team Victory (alt. Clasp)

R6... Eastern Anthem (alt. Weald)

R7... Imbongi (alt. Blue Ksar)

R8... Furnace

R9... Gravitas

Come home safe, everyone.

NoChanceToDance 02-18-2009 01:20 PM

Race 1 - Pointing North (alt, Stubbs Art)
Race 2 - Honour Devil (alt, Dijeerr)
Race 3 - Asset (alt, Buachaill Donna)
Race 4 - Team Victory (alt Moonquake)
Race 5 - Bound By Honour (alt Weald).... Giving him one more chance
Race 6 - Imbongi (alt Gladiatorus)
Race 7 - Rocks Off (NAP) (alt Seihali)...... Really fancy both of these.
Race 8 - Captain Webb (alt Gravitas)

I really struggled to choose between some of these this week. I really really like Gladiatorus, but I know just how hard it is to win from the front here, and Imbongi is the one who should come from off the pace. Two very good horses and not much splitting them for me.

Honour Devil really should win despite giving away weight, it's not a very good race.

I'm giving Pointing North and Better By Honour the benefit of the doubt for their poor previous runs. Their foreign form leaves the others with a lot to find and if they show what they're capable of, they will win, but with both yards out of form it's anyones' guess as to how they will do. Same goes for Team Victory, so I've taken a chance with these, but their previous form is by far the best on show.

Asset was very impressive last time, and the 4lb rise looks pretty lenient, with Warsaw winning well last week (well beaten behind Asset before). He's not always one to trust but he has a lot of class. I also like Instant Recall, but he often finds one too good, and he might not be able to win off his current rating. Buachaill Donna is interesting from this mark after having his pipe opener, could run well at a decent price.

Rocks Off looks a very good bet, after it was obvious he didn't relish the dirt, but even those runs were okay, finishing behind the very good Desert Party on the first start. Back on turf here, and he was a Gr1 winner in South Africa. The grand old performer Seihali could give him the most to do now he's on a very winnable mark, but he's not getting any younger.

PatCummings 02-18-2009 04:03 PM

1 - Pointing North (alt Stubbs Art)
1 - Honour Devil NAP (alt Dijeerr)
3 - Instant Recall (alt Asset)
12 - Trust N Dustan (alt Moonquake)
1 - Eastern Anthem (alt Mr. Brock)
5 - Imbongi (alt Gladiatorus)
9 - Perfect Season (alt Yamal)
9 - Captain Webb (alt Mulaqat)

I agree its a tough night, even with some smaller fields. My full analysis can be found here...

http://dubairacenight.com/dubai-raci...ht-7/#more-616

NoChanceToDance 02-18-2009 04:05 PM

What do you think to Rocks Off, Pat? I rate him as my best bet by far on tomorrows' card, but it's a bit off putting that you haven't even mentioned him :confused: I think, back on turf he will be too good for the others.

brockguy 02-18-2009 05:26 PM

Day 7 - Desperately want to have a good day here:

Race 1 - Pointing North alt Stubbs Art
Race 2 - Wingbeat alt Honour Devil
Race 3 - Instant Recall alt Asset
Race 4 - Trust N Dustan alt Moonquake
Race 5 - Sugar Ray alt Eastern Anthem
Race 6 - Summit Surge alt Gladitorus
Race 7 - Leandros NAP NAP NAP alt Yamal
Race 8 - Sanbuch alt Classic Punch

PatCummings 02-18-2009 06:23 PM

NoChance...

Rocks Off was respected last week when coming back in the 2000 Guineas but repeated his lackluster form. I'm reading into him here...so follow me...

He had good form in South Africa, with that G1 on turf for juveniles...but was clearly well-respected by DeKock when he put him in the conditions race on DIRC Night 2 (the same race won previously for the same connections as Asiatic Boy and Honour Devil). My problem is this...if DeKock really liked him (as if he was the same horse he thought he had at the beginning of the Carnival), do you really think he'd bring him back in a lower-level turf race just a week later?

Now, the reverse logic is fair - third off the layoff, dirt to turf, weight break, vulnerable field. I understand it. In my newsletter on DubaiRaceNight.com, I said that I think everyone in the field has a chance save #6 Flying Blue - so to have Rocks Off pop a big one...entirely possible.

It's a gut instinct, but I think his reappearing here is now a "let's see if he's ok and maybe he'll get his groove back (like Stella) on the turf."

I don't want my money to be part of the experiment...so I'll watch this one.

Hickory Hill Hoff 02-18-2009 07:28 PM

2nd) Pointing North #1 NAP (alt. 9)
3rd) Honour Devil #1 (alt. 6)
4th) Asset #1 (alt. 3)
5th) Team Victory #6 (alt. 1)
6th) Eastern Anthem #1 (alt. 2)
7th) Gladiatorurus #6 (alt. 5)
8th) Leandros #3 (alt. 4)
9th) Waldvogel #6 (alt. 10)

jaripeo 02-18-2009 08:57 PM

HERE I, VOY:

Pointing Nort (Alt Echoes Rock)

Honour Devil (Alt Jaffal)

Instan Recall (Alt Asset)

Bucintros (Alt Team Victory) Best Bet :$:

New Guinea (Alt Crime Scene) :eek:

Gladiatorus (Alt Traffic Guard)

Banknote (Alt Yamal) ;)

Sanbuch (Alt Young Mick)

peetsa 02-19-2009 03:04 AM

2) Stubbs Art

3) Honour Devil

4) Judd Street

5) Grand Hombre

6) Mr Brock NAP

7) Blue Ksar

8) Ragheed

9) Young Mick

viscount26 02-19-2009 07:26 AM

2. Pointing North Nap

3. Honour Devil

4. Asset

5. Irish Mayhem

6. Sugar Ray

7. Gladiatorus

8. Yamal

9. Captain Webb

PatCummings 02-19-2009 09:49 AM

I hope you guys subscribe to the DubaiRaceNight newsletter - free of course...but here is what I said about 23-1 winner Dijeerr...

Make no mistake about the fact that #1 HONOUR DEVIL is a deserving strong favorite. I don't think #6 TIZ NOW TIZ THEN can get close to Honour Devil under most circumstances but am holding out hope that #2 DIJEERR harnesses some magical turn of form to spring the upset or put a decent run in.

His dam, Sharp Minister (by Deputy Minister), was unplaced in two starts, but a year after foaling Dijeerr, she dropped a full brother named Plavius. In four lifetime starts on Dubai dirt, Plavius has two wins and a second before he finished last on February 6th at Nad Al Sheba. You'll notice that Plavius defeated #3 ESTIDHAAF by more than six lengths four starts back, and I think he has board-hitting possibilties today. A half-brother to Dijeerr, Sharp Writer, was second in the Golden Gate Derby (G3) in 2005 before winning some listed stakes races in 2006. Overall, his ability to make some running on the dirt is not out of the question given the breeding.

Apprentice jockey Antioco Murgia has the return call on Dijeerr and has compiled just nine rides in the Emirates since January 22nd. He managed his first local win last week at Jebel Ali for trainer Mubarak bin Shafya, winning by 7.75 lengths in a pace-tracking victory. Interestingly, he rode a son of Danzig that day and had a decent second at a price last week at the Carnival.

Those last two races for Dijeerr were indeed AWFUL, but I am certainly wondering if a change of scene could give him a chance to find himself near the front of the field. I expect the 8-1 morning line to drift up quite a bit as the gate break looms.


Now, granted, I still think Honour Devil was best in that race but Dijeerr offered quite a bit of value and did indeed drift to 23-1. He was only 11-1 on the UK pool.

NoChanceToDance 02-19-2009 11:33 AM

Dijeerr has bee my only winning bet today and that was only a small one because I thought Honour Devil would be too good. It's been awful for me yet again.

What is up with Satish Seemar and Hermon Brown at the moment??? Both trainers are in dreadful form (I don't think Seemar has had a winner at the carnival yet). Pointing North and Better By Honor (both very good horses) have had no shows again. Can a stable be in worse form than these two?? Both horses have the form to win races like this easily and yet run down the field

brockguy 02-19-2009 12:22 PM

Has Leandros lost a leg? Out from 7-1 to 20-1!. They must have heard I fancied it!

PatCummings 02-19-2009 01:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by peetsa
2) Stubbs Art

3) Honour Devil

4) Judd Street

5) Grand Hombre

6) Mr Brock NAP

7) Blue Ksar

8) Ragheed

9) Young Mick

That should land you the spoils for tonight - good job!

NoChanceToDance 02-19-2009 03:07 PM

What a dreadful, dreadful day for me. Well done to those who had winners today.

Here goes another day......

Race 1 - Diana's Choice (alt Blue Sky Basin)
Race 2 - Dohasa (alt Bermuda Rye)
Race 3 - Fervent Prince (alt Tasteyville)
Race 4 - Fiery Lad (alt Bon Spiel)
Race 5 - Frosty Secret (alt Two Step Salsa)
Race 6 - Red Eye Express (NAP) (alt, Kings Gambit)
Race 7 - Black Emblem (alt, Deem) ....... very hard to pick between these two
Race 8 - Eddie Jock (alt, Wise Dennis)

jaripeo 02-19-2009 04:39 PM

Wath a Thursday......

Here I VOY, for tomorrow races:

LESSING (Alt DIANAS CHOICE)

TAS DEER (Alt BERMUDA RYE) Best Bet

BRAVE THIN SOLDIER (Alt JONQUIL)

FIERY LAD (Alt STRATEGIC NEW)

TWO STEPS SALASA (Alt FROSTY SECRET)

MACARTHUR (Alt BANKABLE)

DEEM (Alt BLANK EMBLEM)

SUMMER DOLDRUM (Alt BUCKED OFF)

brockguy 02-19-2009 06:02 PM

Results after Day 7.


Position Name This Weeks Score Running Total

1. Jaripeo, -50 +251.59
2. Viscount26 -50 +83.33
3. Pat Cummings -52.5 -47.5
4. No Chance To Dance -90 -162.5
5. Stickhorse, 0 -150
6. My Miss Storm Cat -52.5 -269.17
7. Linny, 0 -255.91
8. Peetsa +55 -213
9. Hickory Hill Hoff -12.5 -332.16
10. Brockguy -90 -456.25

Dont forget racing again tomorrow!!

brockguy 02-19-2009 06:09 PM

Day 8 Picks

Beaver Patrol alt Dianas Choice

Dohasa NAP alt Artimino

Brave Tin Soldier alt Jonquil

Fiery Lad alt Big Rob

Two Step Salsa alt Star Crowned

Red Eye Express alt Yahrab

Front House alt Deem

I cannot believe that Razkalla is running here at 11, but Eddie Jock alt Wise Dennis


Best of Luck

PatCummings 02-19-2009 07:56 PM

2 - Diana's Choice (alt Munaddam)
3 - Prince Tamino (alt Dohasa)
13 - Noble Citizen NAP (alt Commander Cave)
1 - Fiery Lad (alt Bon Spiel)
5 - Frosty Secret (alt Star Crowned)
9 - Red Eye Express (alt Mashaahed)
1 - Deem (alt Front House)
3 - Without a Prayer (alt Wise Dennis)

PatCummings 02-19-2009 07:56 PM

Here is my full card analysis for Friday's card...

http://dubairacenight.com/dubai-raci...ht-8/#more-626

my miss storm cat 02-19-2009 08:22 PM

Will try to get back to edit in the rest...

R1... Benllech

R3... Brave Tin Soldier (alt. Jonquil)

R5... Lucky Find

R6... King's Gambit (best bet)

R7... Black Emblem (alt. Front House)

Hickory Hill Hoff 02-19-2009 08:23 PM

1st) Diana's Choice #2 (alt. 1)
2nd) Dosha #2 (alt. 4)
3rd) Commander Cave #3 (alt. 5)
4th) Firey Lad #1 (alt. 2)
5th) Two Step Salsa #2 (alt. 3)
6th) Emmrooz #8 (alt. 2)
7th) Black Emblem #3 NAP (alt. 1)
8th) Without a Prayer #3 (alt. 2)

peetsa 02-20-2009 02:13 AM

Thank you, Pat. We'll try again, hopefully will find some more acorns.

1) Muhaddam

2) Balthazaar's Gift

3) Brave Tin Soldier

4) Fiery Lad nap

5) Star Crowned

6) Red Eye Express

7) Happy Spirit

8) Without A Prayer

viscount26 02-20-2009 06:55 AM

1. Diana's Choice

2. Lipocco

3. Snaafy

4. Fiery Lad

5. Tawaasol

6. Red Eye Express Nap

7. Front House

8. Without A prayer

brockguy 02-24-2009 05:05 PM

feck it, i thought i had Fridays scores up already, will defo have them done tomorrow night - just to add as well, that subject to everyone approving, there will be double points for Super Thursday and Treble points for Dubai World Cup night. We did it last year and it keeps things a little more interesting for us stragglers!

NoChanceToDance 02-25-2009 12:48 PM

Time to find another eight losers.....

Race 1 - Leandros (alt, Grantly Adams)
Race 2 - Wise Dennis (alt, Bermuda Rye)
Race 3 - Jalil (alt Gloria De Campeao)
Race 4 - Veracity (NAP) (alt, Mourilyan)
Race 5 - J J The Jet Plane (alt, Hatta Fort)
Race 6 - Earth Living (alt, So Shiny)
Race 7 - Archipenko (alt, Vertigineux)
Race 8 - Presvis (alt, Barbaricus)

brockguy 02-25-2009 03:26 PM

Results after Day 8 Finally got them up


Position Name This Weeks Score Running Total

1. Jaripeo, -57.5 +194.09
2. Viscount26 -3.75 +79.58
3. Pat Cummings -63.75 -111.25
4. No Chance To Dance -63.75 -226.25
5. Stickhorse, 0 -150
6. My Miss Storm Cat -60 -329.17
7. Linny, 0 -255.91
8. Peetsa -30 -243
9. Hickory Hill Hoff -31.25 -363.41
10. Brockguy -57.5 -513.75

brockguy 02-25-2009 03:45 PM

Race 1 Leandros alt Montpellier
Race 2 Wise Dennis alt Calming Influence
Race 3 Romans Run alt Jalil
Race 4 Lion Sands alt Veracity
Race 5 JJ The Jet Plane alt Hatta Fort
Race 6 Devotee alt Earth Living (I dont think i can ever recall 8 runners all coming from the same race last time out!!)
Race 7 Archipenko alt Tam Lin
Race 8 Prevsis NAP alt With Interest

Hickory Hill Hoff 02-25-2009 07:01 PM

Things are looking bleak....so, here's this week's :(

1st) Leandros
2nd) Calming Influence
3rd) Art of War
4th) Veracity NAP
5th) JJ the Jet Plane
6th) Devotee
7th) Tam Lin
8th) World Ruler

PatCummings 02-25-2009 10:05 PM

http://dubairacenight.com/dubai-raci...ht-9/#more-721

That's my analysis for what its worth

PatCummings 02-25-2009 10:08 PM

Race 1 - #7 Nota Bene (alt #3 Grantley Adams)
Race 2 - #2 Bermuda Rye (alt #4 Calming Influence)
Race 3 - #4 Familiar Territory (alt #10 Mr. Brock)
Race 4 - #1 Veracity (alt #2 Basaltico)
Race 5 - #2 JJ The Jet Plane (alt #7 Hatta Fort)
Race 6 - #1 So Shiny (alt #4 Sos Brillante)
Race 7 - #2 Vertigineux NAP (alt #10 Biarritz)
Race 8 - #3 Presvis (alt #7 Eddie Jock)

jaripeo 02-25-2009 11:35 PM

I will traid some good well uncover horsies. Lets hope theY sorprise me.:)
Here I voy.....

BEAVER PATROL (ALT GRANTLEY ADAMS) Who knows..

CALMIN INFLUENCE (ALT KING JOCK) If it is 8/1 put the money in the pot....

GLORIA DE CAMPEAO (ALT TRAFFIC GUARD) Sudamerican horses always good undecover....

MOUROLYAN (ALT VERACITY) Past champions......

JJ THE JET PLANE (ALT HATTA FOURT) Return to his road....

EARTH LIVING (ALT DEVOTEE) Let see how is his hearth?...

ARCHIPENKO (ALT KING OF ROME) I know .. I hate ex-O'Braian horses... but..

YAHRAB (ALT BOUND BY HONOUR) BEST BET Just because, want to make good money.....


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