Albertrani didn't bet Songster down to .15:1: The public did.
Albertrani didn't say that his horse had an 87% chance to win: The public did.

Saying that a horse is ready is not the same as guaranteeing a win. These are animals not deterministic models! The horse got caught near the wire. It's horse racing, not a money market fund.

Regarding Bernardini I have one comment: 114. That number makes him competitive with all comers in the handicap division (and I throw out SinMin's 116 as Keeneland-aided), but we'll see how it pans out against elders....
http://www.drf.com/drfLeaderBoard.do?category=beyer

how can you accept one horses beyer, and then throw out another?? they're all supposed to be figured in a way that in the end shows the horses ability regardless of track, bias, surface, etc....
so why would one be valid, and not another??

It's how fast the horse ran. I accept that; however, I give it less weight in my handicapping of how the horse will perform next time, and that's what I mean by "I throw it out." Many times I've seen horses with easy leads produce big figs that are difficult to reproduce. Especially at KEE.

ESPECIALLY at Keeneland....Sinister Minister will never win another race, NEVER

So, Bernardini didn't have a pretty easy lead and run a big figure?

That's insane to say, the horse is a runner, sure he was aided by a speed bias, but if Baffert gets him right, he will be a very good horse, his sheet # was huge...

I don't know if I'd say never. I spose they'll be some 3yo Aw races in the fall KEE meet that he'd fit well is. I don't give him much chance in the weight for age condition stakes anywhere though.

I would be willing to take odds that he doesn't even make it to another race....

I pay absolutely NO attention to sheet numbers at Keeneland, the only time I do is when the horses were returning to Keeneland and they looked like a Keenaland specialist. With them getting poly or whatever it is called, that should change.

Pleasant Home

Ok, where are you going with this?

Pleasant home ran like four consective 1's going into the BC at three different tracks I think, if you are trying to say that she was a Keeneland specialist

Bernie didn't pull away untill the far turn in the Jim Dandy, and was behind untill he took the lead on the far turn as I recall @ PIM. That's not what I call loose on the lead.

No, the point is that you can't make a blanket statement to throw out sheet numbers at Keeneland...

Neither was Jimmy Croll. He sure knew how to place Holy Bull though.

So he had horses hounding him constantly down the backstretch in the Jim Dandy is what you are saying...

How about Bushfire?

One horse.....Wanderin Boy on the other side of the coin...horse is the next superstar on Keeneland old strip, anywhere else he is a 10k claimer(ok, this extreme but you get my point

What about Louisiana Downs? he ran okay there...

Aloha Bold

Have you been sitting with this information till someone started something, I am not nearly as prepared as you are with this crap...all I know is that when I see someone with a huge number at keeneland, I chuck it out completely, and more or less chuck them out also

Good example...

Skip Away

No Scavs, this is all off the top of my head, I remember everything that I want to...

Hey Oracle...go **** in your hat. You might have great knowledge about horseracing, but your superior attitude annoys the hell out of me. I am redboarding, believe me or not, but I bet the 5 horse that beat Songster to win at 10/1. The reason Songster lost is because of the pinheads that set 21.4 and 44.1 fractions and Prado who chased them, not the horse or the trainer.

And BTW, how much do you really know if you put your money on a 1/9 shot?

Details, details! Don't confuse me with the facts.:D

You mean the kind like Bernardini was pushed hard down the backstretch...

Never said that. Said he wasn't loose on the lead. Didn't have much competition and was slop-aided in the Dandy too. But he did basically repeat his Preakness Fig on BSF scale (maybe a projection?). I think that number is representative of his ability and he has room to mature, and he's not a need the lead type.

What did the sheets give him in the Dandy and Preakness?

I'd like him to throw in a clunker along the way and get a price on him in the Classic....

Just remembered another one, Charismatic, ran a huge Beyer at Keeneland and then won the Derby and Preakness, also Menifee ran a nice Blue Grass that same year and ran 2nd in the Derby and Preakness and won the Haskell...