Derby Trail Forums - 6/7 (BEL): 140th Belmont Stakes

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Quote:

Originally Posted by munster705

Unless you are going to invest a lot of money, how are you getting any value payoffs with Big Brown on top?

If I play a Big Brown/Casino Drive/Icabad Crane straight triple for $40 and it comes in, I'll probably get back $700-$800. That's fine with me.

Quote:

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

No chance in hell. Might not even pay $70 with Anak Nakal in third.

What about with Readys Echo in 3rd??

Quote:

Originally Posted by munster705

You are absolutely out of your mind. Thats is 1/5, 10-1, 3-1

Thats pays $30 if you are lucky

you are out of your mind playing Da Tara!

Quote:

Originally Posted by IrishofNDMan

I think that order still paysd $70 for $2....... not for sure betting this, just throwing it out there to get opinions like this.

I dont see how any combination with BB on top and Casino Drive underneath can be anything more than $100. This is basically a match race.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

What about with Readys Echo in 3rd??

Probably about the same. The only chance for the tri to pay anything with Big Brown on top is if both Denis of Cork and Casino Drive are off the board.

Quote:

Originally Posted by munster705

Unless you are going to invest a lot of money, how are you getting any value payoffs with Big Brown on top?

Did you see what the Preakness tri paid? $300 something for $2. I hated Gayego in that race and played BB w/ Macho Again and KY Bear w/ ALL - only costed $20 for every $1. There's nothing wrong with conceding the race to Big Brown and playing against the second favorite underneath if he looks vulnerable and you're of the opinion that some big priced horses can run 2nd and/or 3rd.

I plan on using Big Brown and Denis of Cork in the PK4 which I think will pay pretty well even if BB wins.

I'll also play TRIs

Big Brown w/ DofC w/ Da'Tara, Anak Nakal, Macho Again, and Ready's Echo.

If I play them each for $25 I'm probably looking at $1500+.

I think you're better off trying to beat Casino Drive and embracing Big Brown. He'll be the bigger underlay in my opinion because everyone loves the Better Than Honour thing - but everyone keeps forgetting that the horse is completely unproven, only has two races, etc. The only horse that can beat Big Brown is Denis because if something takes out Big Brown (pace) it will also probably compromise Casino Drive and set up for a closer.

Quote:

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Probably about the same. The only chance for the tri to pay anything with Big Brown on top is if both Denis of Cork and Casino Drive are off the board.

I guess it depends on what you consider "anything"

Quote:

Originally Posted by IrishofNDMan

disagree, it pays atleast 70 in that order.

$70 seems way high to me. Every novice will box the three faves.

Quote:

Originally Posted by hockey2315

I guess it depends on what you consider "anything"

Anything would be enough to convince me that it's not a better play to use that extra money trying to beat Big Brown. If you don't like both Denis and Casino Drive to finish off the board then there is no point in betting Big Brown on top unless you are willing to do a straight tri like Joey is.

Quote:

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

If that happens you will make nothing.

Come on. The tri in the Preakness with bb on top was 168 and change. Hardly nothing for a minimum investment.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Handicappy

Come on. The tri in the Preakness with bb on top was 168 and change. Hardly nothing for a minimum investment.

He finished over a 40-1 shot and a 22-1 shot. If you are playing for that fine but playing him over several horses including Casino Drive and Denis of Cork is just plain stupid since that tri won't even pay $30.