Colonel John, Adriano and Cowboy Cal should have no problem with 10 furlongs......it is the lack of turf or fake turf that will be the problem. A lot of these others being mentioned are bred nicely for 8 to 9 furlongs but hardly have classic distance pedigree. Smooth Air really doesn't lag far behind them.

Do you really think you have to be a "Classic 10F horse" to win this?
Isnt this race being a little overanalyzed? After all, horses get behind a gate, and the gates open, and the first horse who crosses the line wins.
Arent most Derbys won by the horse who has the lead at the 1/8th pole anyways? From recent memory, I can only think of Giacomo's win as one that this race was won past the 1/8th pole.

Street Sense, Barbaro, Smarty Jones, Funny Cide, Monarchos, War Emblem, Fu Peg, Real Quiet....

Do any of these ring a bell? DId any of these need the extra 1/8th of a mile to win or lose this?

I'm just curious...there wasn't all that much hype about this horse until Steve put up his article(which I think was very well written)...now there is a 3 page thread about him and I was wondering if people are drawing ther own conclusions or hopping on a bandwagon.

Do you really feel the need to start with me?

No, I don't. Especially when there are none in the field to begin with. Which is why I think people dismissing Smooth Air on his pedigree is pointless.

I was thinking the same thing buddy, although I only have a couple horses I am tossing out of all wagers, and I cant seem to do it yet with Smooth Air.
I was thinking while watching the Florida Derby, that the 1-2 finishers there, would be the same 1-2 finishers in Kentucky.

In a parallel universe, he's been on my short list since february.

I'm sure that's true for others.....

Just read through the thread and I can understand why a some may like Smooth Air, but as a few have stated, he had every opportunity to win the Florida Derby and flattened out. He is consistently in the money, but I think he's in trouble at a 1 1/4. I think 40-1 would be an underlay. At best, this one will plod up to be part of the super.

Whatever. Name me one horse on the Trail that would've beaten Big Brown that day.

So, in other words, you feel finishing second is all that matters.....the fact that he got beaten by an amount that often results in a 7th place finish is irrelevent?

What? Dude said that "he had every chance to win the Florida Derby and flattened out" as if every other Derby horse wouldn't have done the same thing that day.

would have been nice to see Smooth Air atleast making up a little ground to Big Brown, not back peddling. I'm still unsure with Smooth Air, and if I use it will probably be the bottom part of my tri.

you really think that every horse out there would have run the same race as smooth air? smooth air hasn't seen the winners circle since the hutcheson, and hasn't won past that seven furlong distance. i don't think that hitting second by a large margin to big brown, preceded by a third to fierce wind and big truck indicates what another horse would/could do. also, he was in the photo at 1 1/16, but over seven lengths back at the 9 f distance.

If Big Brown runs his race no one is beating him. If he doesn't then it is a wide open race. So I'm not going to hold getting beat by him against anyone.

Exactly Sniper. Its not like Smooth Air couldnt get past a wobbly Gayego, or a hurt War Pass, both of who looked like they were drunken sailors. fumes. If Z Fortune was anything, he would have gotten by. Same too with Court Vision who had a rally going but flattened out like a blueberry pancake.
Big Brown embarrased everybody that day in Florida, including Smooth Air, who did what somebody always has to do, finish 2nd. It was a bunch of mediocre horses who for some reason or another, didnt even fire their typical mediocre efforts.

That's what I'm saying.

i love blueberry pancakes.

Me too, and I also love Court Vision as a racehorse. I think he may make a very nice show bet on Derby Day.

welll, then just how special was big brown if he only knocked off a bunch of mediocrities? seriously? and if some of those other horses were wobbly or drunken, what do you call big browns stretch run that day? he was all over the place.

Green

he's in my rttr, and i am seriously thinking of using him to get in the tri. not that that is as important as putting real money...
i haven't looked at the site yet, so i don't know how many i can use in that contest....plenty of time tho.

that is too funny, as i originally had that one word after my last question.
so, what does mr green do in his fourth career race vs 17/19 other horses, with 125k screaming drunken fans?

I guess we dont know how special he is until next weekend. And yes, he is still a very green animal but he wasnt stopping quite like the other two I mentioned. He did something the other two didnt, run fast.
But like you, I will be betting somebody else on Saturday, for sure.

My money will be on be very overwhelmed and run like crap. But I wouldn't be surprised if he freaked and won big.

He has yet to run out of the money, correct? Sorry, I dont have a form in front of me. I think hes got a great shot for (at least) 3rd, I really do. The more I watch his replays and the more I look at the way this shape ups, the more I like.

i can see him rounding out a tri or super....and i need as many points as possible, since i didn't play monba in the bluegrass. ooops.

Pretty much why I'm against him at the expected price.

and btw, yes, he's always in the money. 3 wins, a second and 2 thirds.

Been on him since he was a maiden

who? smooth air?

Not sure anyone would've, but if there was a race that set up for this guy, this was the one. If you like him A-Team, then bet him. I certainly wasn't knocking him, I just simply don't like his chances.

I can't believe there is an 8-page thread about this colt.
For those that are (for some strange reason) impressed with his race at GP, how do you explain away his previous race? It wasn't Big Brown blowing by him in the stretch that day.
The main knock against him that I see is that he has never done a single thing in any of his previous races that indicates he has any shot to win the race. That strikes me as rather important.

:rolleyes: The reason this thread keeps going is because people like you keep making ridiculous statements like that.

He's run just as well as, or better than, anyone in the field (save Big Brown and Pyro) on figures, and he's got the versatility to adjust to different pace scenarios. What the hell are you talking about?

Oh, I disagree. This thread keeps going because after I make all of my brilliant points, people like YOU foolishly choose to disagree with me instead of merely bowing to my superior wisdom.....which is always the best course of action.

Although I don't know how I am going to play the race at this point, I can think of at least six or seven horses - in addition to Pyro and Big Brown -that strike me as much more likely winners than Smooth Air.
He is a one-turn closer if ever there was one.

Well since he's not really a closer and his best race was around two turns. . .

Smooth Air
 

Remember, 950 Lbs Horses Will Not Carry 126lbs A 1 1/4 Mile Period.
Save Your Money...

Birdstone is not impressed by your argument.

Was it really necessary for you to offer more proof?

If you want to call him a stalker instead of a closer fine. I can see that. But the point remains that he is almost certain to do his best work from off the pace in one-turn races (you know, like the one he actually won this year).

The larger point is that.....THIS HORSE HAS NO CHANCE!!!
I'm done trying to talk people out of betting him. For those of you that insist on playing him, it will be a very nice payout, so I genuinely wish you the best of luck.

I'm not playing him on top. . . But the way things have been going this year he has an OK shot to hit the board. . .

This is the argument of everybody who dislikes him.. "He um.. He uh.. He has no shot!" :p