I played Lawyer Ron in the Whitney last summer despite the wide post (#10 out of 11?) b/c he his speed figures (Beyers/Track Variants) said he could win at the distance. Is the bias vs. o/s posts at GP at 1 1/8th significantly different than Saratoga? If not, perhaps BB can get out quick enough to run three wide into the 1st turn and leave them in his dust like Lawyer Ron did in the Whitney?

I am in the top 10 in our local OTB RTD contest and would love to play vs. BB to gain points on those ahead of me, but the others I like are also in o/s posts (#s 8,9,11) and I question if #s1 or 2 will improve enough to hit the wire first.

That is a pretty good comparison. You get just an instant more time at Saratoga to run up, and the turn seems to be maybe a second longer at Gulfstream, but it is very close.
3 wide probably isn't realistic here, because Face The Cat, Elysium Fields, and probably BB Frank are all going to asked for position out of the gate and try to join Fierce Wind near the front. Maybe 5-7 wide and a little bit of a brush.

My only knock on him is he's lazy out of the gate. And with that post it's a recipe for disaster.

Big Brown to win over Fierce Wind with a side bet on the other Zito.

1,2 w/ 1,2,12 w/ 1,2,4,5,8,12 = $16

Question whether Smooth Air can get the distance, but like the price.

After spending the last 30 or so minutes studying these PPs I must conclude that this is one of the best G1s I can remember in recent years (in terms of a betting race, not field quality). There are a lot of interesting colts here coming off of career best performances that could take the next step and win. You have a big unknown in the South American horse, and the colt with the best speed figures parked way out there in a difficult spot.
You could make a reasonable case for a lot of these horses.

This is a fun race to look at. I still haven't made up my mind on the best way to play it yet.

I don't think there is any way we can begin know what the price will be at this point.
It will be very interesting to see what the board looks like for this race come post time. I'm not sure what the betting public will make of Tomcito's class and/or BB's post position.

Yeah, you can make a case to play or not play just about anybody. I rarely ever box but assuming no scratches I think I'm just going to box up Smooth Air, Fierce Wind, Tomcito, and Elysium Fields and hope for the best.

Tomcito's gotten a little bit of hype, with comparisons to Cannonero II, so I'm guessing he gets bet down from his morning line with people looking for the proverbial dark horse. But Tomcito seems to be a sustained runner -- he came from pretty far back to win the Nacional -- and I don't think this race sets up for him if that's true.

BB's gotten more hype than maybe any horse on the trail this year. He'll be low odds no matter what. He is, after all, the best horse Desormeaux has ever ridden.

I think it's likely that Smooth Air is at least 10-1 given, as you say, the possibility that many of these horses could move forward here, and I'm hoping he gets lost in the crowd (betting-wise). But I think Stutts has him cranked up as far as he can go at this point, and I think he'll handle the early pace just fine with something left. A 10-1 horse on top of the tri will yield a decent payout.

I think the early pace is the main concern for Smooth Air. If he's on or near the lead it could be lights out for the rest of the field. I don't think distance limitations matter that much on this course.

1,8,9 / 1,6,8,9 / 1,4,6,8,9

12 hole is o-fer in 9f races since reconfiguration @ GP

Majestic Warrior was the best 2 yr old imo. Then he got injured and his come back raised questions. But still, if he's recovered I think he can do it. WPS on MW.

Oh My God!
 

Wow!

and what

The Derby Favorite

Some people will have crow on the menu tonight! One of them will be me.

well he was a heavy fav.
The public had no idea what he was up against. I feel like i did a good job of weighing track dynamics in thinking he had a chance to buck the trend, but really i was backing a heavy fav....

oddly those who took the "logical" approach were in the minority outside the internet...

Must've been a dime or more on the show.

he paid $22.00 to win on Derby Trails!:p

Can hardly wait for the Big Brown vs. War Pass match up :rolleyes:

You can your Big Browns of the world.....will be the biggest bust since Arazi in '92.....mark my words!

Just for a minute lets pretend that horses can bounce. That doesn't mean that Big Brown couldn't win the Roses, but I think it's a little early to drink the Kool Aid.

Not that I upset I didn't bet him.:confused:

Why will people be eating crow? I don't want to take the time to read through this whole thread again, but I don't remember very many people bashing the horse. I don't think anybody said that he didn't have a chance to win.
Some of us just didn't think he was a particularly good wager in this race. It turns out he was perhaps better than we thought he was, but I don't think anybody really knocked the horse.

Can't remember, but I think I was one who said he had no shot based upon his post. I'll eat crow for dinner... why not? Nothing better to eat around here. :p

You really should have taken the time to re-read the thread. In fact I've re-read my own post about 10 times and not once in those 15 words did I mention the word bash. The fact of the matter is that if you re-read the thread, which obviously you didn't, many people thought he would have no chance to win from that post. I for one (although I didn't post it on here) felt the same way.

Okay, I STILL don't want to read the whole thread again but I'll take your word for it and stand corrected. Maybe some people did think he had "no shot."
I honestly don't know how they could have thought that about a horse that did what he did in his first two lifetime starts......but oh well. My basic point was that I think MOST of the people that didn't like him because of his post were well aware that the horse might be capable of doing something like this, but given the odds we chose to take a stand against him. There is no reason to eat crow for that.

Also, you re-read your own post ten times? Sounds like an exciting weekend you've got going on there!

stating the fact that the post was a big hurdle and therefore deciding to take a stand against, is not the same thing as saying he had no chance.
I personally decided not to play him for the combined reasons (low odds, bad post, third start in GR1, etc), but never did I consider that he had NO chance. its never that black and white.

And here it is... :D

Would anyone like to join me?

Oh My.

I really don't want to get into a battle of semantics but some people said No Chance. Can we just leave it at that. I really didn't think people would get there feelings so hurt over a post that was meant to just bust some chops, including my own. If I really thought the horse could win, I would've won a lot of money regardless of his odds. I keyed him under Eslyium Fields and Smooth Air.

I don't care what u say, the smartest $5 dollar horse i defended all year :)

yes, he did.