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-   -   Top 25 3yo's 1987-2007 (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=20438)

SniperSB23 02-26-2008 01:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by miraja2
Clearly he was better than Pepper's Pride.
I wasn't attempting to compare them in terms of ability.
I was just trying to make the point that I like to see horses actually beat some horse that can run before I would include the animal in a list of this nature.

Right, I just don't think it is fair that he gets slammed so bad for beating no one when he showed up at all the biggest races for his division. Slam away for the BC performance, for that he deserves it.

blackthroatedwind 02-26-2008 01:06 PM

Here are six horses from 1987 that were clearly better 3YOs than Lost in the Fog.....

Alysheba
Bet Twice
Gulch
Java Gold
Cryptoclearance
Gone West

and Lost Code and Polish Navy were probably better.

The Bid 02-26-2008 01:07 PM

LITF defeated Kelly's Landing but how many 3yo G1 sprints do they write?

philcski 02-26-2008 01:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NoLuvForPletch
can you include a horse who won 3 of 4 races as a 3YO, and only one G1?

These are awesome to watch.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MSo-M...eature=related

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GiiKgJiYCDM

Was there a more anticipated return of an older horse than Ghostzapper in recent memory, besides Curlin?

Not for me, at least. I almost shat my pants when I saw his 3yo debut.

Wouldn't include him in 3YO accomplishments because they weren't there. Unfortunately for him, he was 2nd fiddle in his own barn at that point.

philcski 02-26-2008 01:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Bid
LITF defeated Kelly's Landing but how many 3yo G1 sprints do they write?

Two

SniperSB23 02-26-2008 01:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski
Two

What is the second?

King Glorious 02-26-2008 01:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by miraja2
Did LITF ever defeat another G1 winner?

Realizing the abuse I'm going to take for this, I'm going to post it anyway. He never beat another grade one winner. Wait, what about Kelly's Landing who went on to win the Dubai Golden Shaheen? Fog beat him in Kentucky. Kelly's Landing is also the 6f track record holder at Churchill.

What I was going to say was what about Egg Head and More Smoke? I know, I know. But hear me out. When he beat More Smoke in March, it didn't mean much but then More Smoke came back in April to win the Lafayette with a 114 Beyer. Fog beat him by over five lengths. When Fog faced Egg Head in the Riva Ridge, Egg Head was coming off of a 112 Beyer. Again, I know what you all are saying. Probably shaking your heads over me bringing up Egg Head and More Smoke. But up until Fog ran the 116 in the Carry Back, the 112 and 114 earned by those other two were the highest 3yo sprint Beyers of the year and higher than all the figures that the eventual field for the BC Sprint ran that year, save for Gygistar (115), Wildcat Heir (117), and Pomeroy (114). So not only was Fog criss-crossing the country to win these races while giving away lots of weight, he was beating whatever was the next best out there and doing it handily. It's too bad Egg Head died. I think he could have become a grade one winner.

Also wanted to add that Fog had destroyed Social Probation and Santana Strings. Those two nobodies finished 1-2 over eventual BC Sprint winner Silver Train.

The Bid 02-26-2008 01:20 PM

Egg Head was a very good horse

King Glorious 02-26-2008 01:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SniperSB23
Right, I just don't think it is fair that he gets slammed so bad for beating no one when he showed up at all the biggest races for his division. Slam away for the BC performance, for that he deserves it.

He gets slammed for beating nobodies but Mineshaft got awarded HOY in 2003 for the same thing. Think about it. In 2003, who were the top seven older males? In no order, I come up with:

Congaree, Perfect Drift, Medaglia d'Oro, Mineshaft, Candy Ride, Milwaukee Brew, and Pleasantly Perfect. Out of that group of seven, Mineshaft only faced one of those horses (Perfect Drift). He only faced that one horse one time. And he LOST. But he was the HOY. Go figure.

philcski 02-26-2008 01:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie
holy cow, i never realized that!

still, he was better as a 3yo than a whole lot of the ones named in this thread. didnt he win the queen's plate in his 2nd or 3rd start?

Yes... 3rd start. Which, to be honest, isn't THAT great of an achievement, in fact this year I believe the winner did the same thing (and he isn't much).

I respectfully disagree he was better as a 3YO than a lot of the ones listed here- he was a pedestrian 6-3-0-2 with a maiden win, the Queens Plate, and the Jim Dandy- potential notwithstanding. However, his 4YO campaign was about as good as it gets. Trust me, he's one of my personal favorites and I'm thrilled he's doing so well at stud...

philcski 02-26-2008 01:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SniperSB23
What is the second?

Malibu.

Indian Charlie 02-26-2008 01:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski
Yes... 3rd start. Which, to be honest, isn't THAT great of an achievement, in fact this year I believe the winner did the same thing (and he isn't much).

I respectfully disagree he was better as a 3YO than a lot of the ones listed here- he was a pedestrian 6-3-0-2 with a maiden win, the Queens Plate, and the Jim Dandy- potential notwithstanding. However, his 4YO campaign was about as good as it gets. Trust me, he's one of my personal favorites and I'm thrilled he's doing so well at stud...


well, on paper, yeah, he wasnt the greatest 3yo of the last 20 years, that's for certain. still, at the end of his 3yo campaign, i'd have taken him over MANY on these lists.

SniperSB23 02-26-2008 01:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski
Malibu.

Ah yes, the 3yo stakes that is part of a 4yo series. Easy to forget.

blackthroatedwind 02-26-2008 01:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SniperSB23
Ah yes, the 3yo stakes that is part of a 4yo series. Easy to forget.


Is this " stubborn " for " Thanks, I forgot about that one? "

The Bid 02-26-2008 01:37 PM

He would have won the Malibu healthy, he would have won the BCS healthy.

King Glorious 02-26-2008 01:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
Here are six horses from 1987 that were clearly better 3YOs than Lost in the Fog.....

Alysheba
Bet Twice
Gulch
Java Gold
Cryptoclearance
Gone West

and Lost Code and Polish Navy were probably better.

Well, as you know, I believe this was the greatest crop ever. But let me ask you something. How sure can we be that these horses were better than Fog? Under 8f, probably the only one that could have beaten him was Gulch. I wouldn't take Java Gold or Alysheba or Cryptoclearance to beat Fog at 7f anymore than I would take Fog to beat them at 9f. They competed in different games. I think it would be fairer to compare him to Jazzing Around, Templar Hill, and Well Selected, horses that were among the best 3yo sprinters that year (won the Riva Ridge, King's Bishop, and Hutcheson, respectively.)

philcski 02-26-2008 01:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie
well, on paper, yeah, he wasnt the greatest 3yo of the last 20 years, that's for certain. still, at the end of his 3yo campaign, i'd have taken him over MANY on these lists.

You ever visit Adena? Great facility, and some awesome stallions. AA loves the attention, GZ not so much... not to mention El Prado, Congaree, Alphabet Soup, etc.

Quote:

Originally Posted by SniperSB23
Ah yes, the 3yo stakes that is part of a 4yo series. Easy to forget.

That's why you have me around. :)

blackthroatedwind 02-26-2008 01:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by King Glorious
Well, as you know, I believe this was the greatest crop ever. But let me ask you something. How sure can we be that these horses were better than Fog? Under 8f, probably the only one that could have beaten him was Gulch. I wouldn't take Java Gold or Alysheba or Cryptoclearance to beat Fog at 7f anymore than I would take Fog to beat them at 9f. They competed in different games. I think it would be fairer to compare him to Jazzing Around, Templar Hill, and Well Selected, horses that were among the best 3yo sprinters that year (won the Riva Ridge, King's Bishop, and Hutcheson, respectively.)


Java Gold would have drowned him at 7F as would have Bet Twice. The others? Maybe. However, while I understand the point you are trying to make I think in overall talent they were better. They were, IMO, better at what they did than he was at what he did.

SniperSB23 02-26-2008 01:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
Is this " stubborn " for " Thanks, I forgot about that one? "

That combined with the BC altering the calendar so much that I've come to think of the racing season ending on Thanksgiving weekend.

blackthroatedwind 02-26-2008 01:41 PM

I couldn't figure out which race it was either.

Indian Charlie 02-26-2008 01:42 PM

i'm pretty sure on the line was from this same crop as well, and he would have kicked lost in the fog's ass, at any distance from 3f to 10f.

justindew 02-26-2008 01:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
Look, I liked Lost in the Fog, he was a neat horse and I respect that he shipped all over the country and ran in many of the important spots for 3YOs. It wasn't his fault that his competition was weak. But, I think there is a canyon of difference between his actual talent and his perceived talent.

Would the Beyer folks agree with you on this?

blackthroatedwind 02-26-2008 01:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie
i'm pretty sure on the line was from this same crop as well, and he would have kicked lost in the fog's ass, at any distance from 3f to 10f.


Here's another one that would have drowned him in sprints in 1987.......Afleet.

Indian Charlie 02-26-2008 01:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
Here's another one that would have drowned him in sprints in 1987.......Afleet.

lost code

blackthroatedwind 02-26-2008 01:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by justindew
Would the Beyer folks agree with you on this?


For the most part. As was pointed out, he ran a couple of fast races, but for the most part he was nowhere near as fast as made out to be. Discreet Cat ran as fast as Lost in the Fog, on the same day, in his 2YO debut.

blackthroatedwind 02-26-2008 01:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie
lost code


I mentioned him.

The Bid 02-26-2008 01:51 PM

Comparing LITF to Discreet Cat is like comparing chocolate icecream to s hit

blackthroatedwind 02-26-2008 01:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Bid
Comparing LITF to Discreet Cat is like comparing chocolate icecream to s hit


That's a little unfair to Lost in the Fog....don't you think?

The Bid 02-26-2008 01:54 PM

Haha oh boy.

I just really like the horse think he was exceptional

blackthroatedwind 02-26-2008 01:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Bid
Haha oh boy.

I just really like the horse think he was exceptional


Yes, but you left yourself open for that one.

Just be glad DrugS isn't around to interfere in this thread.

The Bid 02-26-2008 01:59 PM

Drugs is on the LITF hate wagon?

You dont think the three 100+ beyers as a 2yo show superior talent?

The horse never ran a sub 103 until the BC and by that time he was filled with cancer

King Glorious 02-26-2008 02:01 PM

You know how I feel about Java Gold. Lost Code is also on my list of the top 25 as are Alysheba and Bet Twice. So I'm with you when it comes to looking at their overall quality. But when it comes to sprinting, we are far apart. I can't see Java Gold coming within five lengths of Fog at 7f or within 10 lengths at 6f. On the Line was a very talented horse and that would have been a good matchup. But Afleet and Lost Code? In sprints? Lost Code was a very nice horse and he had nice front end speed but front-end route speed is vastly different than front-end sprint speed. See Commentator. All four of Lost Code's 3yo stakes wins came at 9f. Afleet wouldn't have been able to stay in the same pan shot with Fog in a sprint race.

blackthroatedwind 02-26-2008 02:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Bid
Drugs is on the LITF hate wagon?

you dont think the three 100+ beyers as a 2yo show superior talent?


I think he was a terrific horse and I really liked him. I just don't think that overall he displayed a talent that was as good as the one many people believed. That doesn't necessarily make me right, and clearly you and I disagree on him, but overall I think he was a cut below what I would consider special.

I actually wanted him to win that BC Sprint just to prove that he really did have an explosive A-game. Ultimately I'm just not sure he did. But, as you said, illness may have prevented him from displaying it.

Part of my problem is that I read so much misplaced adulation on boards like this that I sometimes fall victim to going overboard the other way when I see horses being overrated. No doubt that was the case with Smarty Jones.

blackthroatedwind 02-26-2008 02:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by King Glorious
You know how I feel about Java Gold. Lost Code is also on my list of the top 25 as are Alysheba and Bet Twice. So I'm with you when it comes to looking at their overall quality. But when it comes to sprinting, we are far apart. I can't see Java Gold coming within five lengths of Fog at 7f or within 10 lengths at 6f. On the Line was a very talented horse and that would have been a good matchup. But Afleet and Lost Code? In sprints? Lost Code was a very nice horse and he had nice front end speed but front-end route speed is vastly different than front-end sprint speed. See Commentator. All four of Lost Code's 3yo stakes wins came at 9f. Afleet wouldn't have been able to stay in the same pan shot with Fog in a sprint race.


Take a look at Java Gold's 3YO debut.

King Glorious 02-26-2008 02:08 PM

My initial feeling after the BC was that he had blown his opportunity to silence his doubters. I was not ready to buy the illness excuse when it first came out. The fact that he was dead a very short time later.....yeah that made me accept the illness excuse. I also don't think that Gilchrist did him any favors with that schedule. He wasn't just shipping from North Cal to South Cal or from NY to Florida. He was shipped completely across the country and back 13 times. That's bound to take a toll on any horse.

horseofcourse 02-26-2008 02:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by King Glorious
I must say that I'm very surprised to see Xtra Heat make any list. Personally, I don't even know if I'd rank her as one of the top three 3yo filly sprinters of the period. If you like Xtra Heat, what did you think about Very Subtle or Safely Kept? Very Subtle is one underrated filly. She won the BC (beating Groovy) and also went back east and won the Test and won the Fantasy Stakes (via DQ) in Arkansas. Both of those fillies won the premiere 3yo filly sprint race.

Probably right...I was going off the top of my head and I remember Xtra Heat and her great 3 yr old year nearly winning the BC. I didn't follow racing too closely in the late 80s other than the big dirt route races when I was in college so those two you mentioned I completely forgot about...especially SAfely Kept who I agree was better most likely. Simply a case of Xtra Heat being more fresh in my mind as doing something pretty special as a 3 yr old sprint filly. Same with Housebuster...simply forgot about him when making the list. (Harder for me to remember sprinters for whatever reason!!) Out of fariness I thought I should put a sprinter or two in and LITF and Xtra Heat were who came to mind (probably should have put a turf horse or two in as well or a foreign horse.) Just didn't occur to me.

King Glorious 02-26-2008 02:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
Take a look at Java Gold's 3YO debut.

Saw that race and also the Cowdin, Saratoga Special, and the Best Turn. I'm not saying that he couldn't sprint but as much as I love him, I wouldn't place him in Fog's class as a sprinter.

blackthroatedwind 02-26-2008 02:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by King Glorious
Saw that race and also the Cowdin, Saratoga Special, and the Best Turn. I'm not saying that he couldn't sprint but as much as I love him, I wouldn't place him in Fog's class as a sprinter.

What about Turkoman? What would you classify him as?

I know he was earlier.....but he would have drowned Lost in the Fog at 7F.

philcski 02-26-2008 02:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
I think he was a terrific horse and I really liked him. I just don't think that overall he displayed a talent that was as good as the one many people believed. That doesn't necessarily make me right, and clearly you and I disagree on him, but overall I think he was a cut below what I would consider special.

I actually wanted him to win that BC Sprint just to prove that he really did have an explosive A-game. Ultimately I'm just not sure he did. But, as you said, illness may have prevented him from displaying it.

Part of my problem is that I read so much misplaced adulation on boards like this that I sometimes fall victim to going overboard the other way when I see horses being overrated. No doubt that was the case with Smarty Jones.

Keep this in mind when you remember the zealots... he was extremely UNDERRATED throughout the '04 Derby Trail. In the Rebel, he went off at 7/2 behind a MAIDEN WINNER (Purge), and blew his doors off. However, he still wasn't even considered good enough to be included in Derby Future Wager #2 (which is why the Field went off as such a heavy favorite, which doesn't usually happen Pool 2). Even in the Derby, he was a lukewarm favorite despite being lengths better on paper and much the best visually to that point because "he couldn't go the distance" and a horse that started at Philly Park "couldn't win the Derby". Was he overrated post-career? Yes, because it was incomplete. Sadly, we got fed a bucket of lies and never got to see a completed campaign.

I will give you this... I highly doubt he would have hit the board in the '04 BCC. What we do know is the one horse that beat him has never earned the respect he should get- he's one of a very select group that has won NY's premier age restricted races (Champagne, Belmont, Travers). Who knows what he would have done at 4? I don't think it's fair to speculate either way.

SniperSB23 02-26-2008 02:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
What about Turkoman? What would you classify him as?

I know he was earlier.....but he would have drowned Lost in the Fog at 7F.

LITF at 7 furlongs was not that good of a horse. His last three Beyers pre-BC at 6 furlong were 114/116/110. His last four at 7 furlongs pre-BC were 105/107/105/105.


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