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-   -   Rags to Riches confirmed for Belmont (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=13912)

GPK 06-05-2007 02:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SentToStud
Is it true he has his own bobblehead doll out?

When Scav and I do get together, some damage is going to occur.


he sent me an autographed one....It will be on ebay soon enough...should fuel my retirement fund.

10 pnt move up 06-05-2007 02:43 PM

If I was Johnny I would have one eye on the track and one eye on the rear view mirror because the sharks are circling.

Still though he has a long ways to catch Kent's riding in my estimation. At least Jonny is not an *******.

Bobby Fischer 06-05-2007 02:43 PM

Johnny V is a good judge of pace, moreso when he is near the front. He isn't a liability from off the pace. One of the best jockeys. First call for Pletch.

I think it is more of a loss of Slew's Tizzy than a direct gain for R2R.

Payson Dave 06-05-2007 02:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fpsoxfan
Certainly......But I'm talking about Johnny V's stats and earnings for the year.

and BTW and others are talking about his performance "lately"....apples and oranges...why pick a fight??

Sightseek 06-05-2007 02:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer
Johnny V is a good judge of pace, moreso when he is near the front. He isn't a liability from off the pace. One of the best jockeys. First call for Pletch.

I think it is more of a loss of Slew's Tizzy than a direct gain for R2R.

Bejarano got the ride on Slew's Tizzy.

Bigsmc 06-05-2007 02:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fpsoxfan
Certainly......But I'm talking about Johnny V's stats and earnings for the year.

Therin lies the problem. You were talking about his stats for the year and Andy is talking about his recent riding at Belmont (not Gulfstream or Keeneland).

Apples and Oranges.

Let's look at the current Belmont stats broken down over distance and surface. Johnny V has okay (historically for him) stats on turf (18% wins) and an excellent dirt routes (26% wins). In dirt sprints, he is 4 for 30 (13.33% well below his win average for the year). Most of the cheaper races are sprints, a rider is also required to make split second decisions in sprints (whether to go for a hole that may or may not be opening, dive to the rail, etc..) and even a slightly bad trip can cause momentum loss and the loss of the race. Johnny's interest and his derring-do don't seem to be there in the cheaper races and most of them are sprints and that may explain is abysmal (for him) dirt sprint record so far this meet.

Antitrust32 06-05-2007 02:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bigsmc
Therin lies the problem. You were talking about his stats for the year and Andy is talking about his recent riding at Belmont (not Gulfstream or Keeneland).

Apples and Oranges.

Let's look at the current Belmont stats broken down over distance and surface. Johnny V has okay (historically for him) stats on turf (18% wins) and an excellent dirt routes (26% wins). In dirt sprints, he is 4 for 30 (13.33% well below his win average for the year). Most of the cheaper races are sprints, a rider is also required to make split second decisions in sprints (whether to go for a hole that may or may not be opening, dive to the rail, etc..) and even a slightly bad trip can cause momentum loss and the loss of the race. Johnny's interest and his derring-do don't seem to be there in the cheaper races and most of them are sprints and that may explain is abysmal (for him) dirt sprint record so far this meet.



Come on bigs, you know logic is not allowed here!

Bigsmc 06-05-2007 02:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GPK
he sent me an autographed one....It will be on ebay soon enough...should fuel my retirement fund.

I do need to sight in my rifle.....Bobblehead at 100 paces.

blackthroatedwind 06-05-2007 02:53 PM

Here's one, off the top of my head, where a mediocre ride by Johnny clearly cost him the victory......May 23rd, the 6th at Belmont. Somewhat ironically, both Garrett Gomez and Kent Desourmeaux who both gave terrific rides, were the beneficiaries.

Try to pull up the replay.

GPK 06-05-2007 02:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bigsmc
I do need to sight in my rifle.....Bobblehead at 100 paces.


your's for $2....


going once...

the_fat_man 06-05-2007 02:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
Here's one, off the top of my head, where a mediocre ride by Johnny clearly cost him the victory......May 23rd, the 6th at Belmont. Somewhat ironically, both Garrett Gomez and Kent Desourmeaux who both gave terrific rides, were the beneficiaries.

Try to pull up the replay.

No doubt that was a terrible ride. Needlessly wide. Where's Trakus for verification? And I agree that JV is not exactly at the top of his game.

Let me ask you a ? since you've watched the race. Does Sensational Humour win with Port Royal's trip? There's no debating, IMO, that the winner was 3rd best.

NTamm1215 06-05-2007 02:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
Here's one, off the top of my head, where a mediocre ride by Johnny clearly cost him the victory......May 23rd, the 6th at Belmont. Somewhat ironically, both Garrett Gomez and Kent Desourmeaux who both gave terrific rides, were the beneficiaries.

Try to pull up the replay.

I don't even have to find the replay to remember that one. Blazing Dynamo gets the win under Desormeaux and Gomez rode Sensational Humor beautifully. He swung him out and looked like he was going to get there and of course, since I was all over him, he came up a bit short. That day was made even better by my narrow defeat on Summer Doldrums a race later.

Either way, the point is Gomez and Kent D. both rode great races there.

NT

blackthroatedwind 06-05-2007 03:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the_fat_man
No doubt that was a terrible ride. Needlessly wide. Where's Trakus for verification?

Let me ask you a ? since you've watched the race. Does Sensational Humour win with Port Royal's trip?

Sensational Humour would have been lucky to have been a fairly well beaten third.

SentToStud 06-05-2007 03:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GPK
your's for $2....


going once...

$1!

Antitrust32 06-05-2007 03:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SentToStud
$1!

5 cents and a back rub!

the_fat_man 06-05-2007 03:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
Sensational Humour would have been lucky to have been a fairly well beaten third.

Have you watched his run vis a vis the winner's?

GPK 06-05-2007 03:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Antitrust32
5 cents and a back rub!


SOLD!!

blackthroatedwind 06-05-2007 03:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the_fat_man
Have you watched his run vis a vis the winner's?


Yeah, and obviously in some ways the winner benefited from being closer. But, one could also argue that given the race dynamics it was better to have been farther off the pace.

I bet Sensational Humour and felt he had his chance to win and just couldn't get up. I'll take tougher beats.

Mortimer 06-05-2007 03:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fpsoxfan
Oh goodness...Now I've got you on my case. Where's the rope?
Andy is one of the best..no question and I'm looking forward to seeing him and many others at the Spa. This is just a tiny pi**ing match which I'm going to give up now. I've said my piece. I will agree to disagree. Thanks for the vote of confidence though Morty. It comes at a real good time.


Oh forget it.


What are internet creatures for ....anyway?










I mean I wouldn't argue with him.

Not about horseys anyway.

But I have no fear of him when it comes to TetherBall....absolutely none.

the_fat_man 06-05-2007 03:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
Yeah, and obviously in some ways the winner benefited from being closer. But, one could also argue that given the race dynamics it was better to have been farther off the pace.

I bet Sensational Humour and felt he had his chance to win and just couldn't get up. I'll take tougher beats.

I bet him as well and felt fortunate that he got 2nd given Port Royal's trip. But I also thought that steading and going around just after he entered the stretch cost him the race, as it was run. And taking nothing away from Desormeaux's ride which was excellent: the hole opened up and he dove to the inside and took off.

blackthroatedwind 06-05-2007 03:13 PM

Yeah, all in all he probably had the second best trip, as Desormeaux's worked out perfectly. Both riders put themselves in position to get good trips, and were rewarded for their patience and the lack of patience by Johnny, and the winner's trip just worked out a little better.

One thing's for sure, I'll take my chances with Gomez's ride over Johnny's any day, especially on the turf.

fpsoxfan 06-05-2007 03:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bigsmc
Therin lies the problem. You were talking about his stats for the year and Andy is talking about his recent riding at Belmont (not Gulfstream or Keeneland).

Apples and Oranges.

Let's look at the current Belmont stats broken down over distance and surface. Johnny V has okay (historically for him) stats on turf (18% wins) and an excellent dirt routes (26% wins). In dirt sprints, he is 4 for 30 (13.33% well below his win average for the year). Most of the cheaper races are sprints, a rider is also required to make split second decisions in sprints (whether to go for a hole that may or may not be opening, dive to the rail, etc..) and even a slightly bad trip can cause momentum loss and the loss of the race. Johnny's interest and his derring-do don't seem to be there in the cheaper races and most of them are sprints and that may explain is abysmal (for him) dirt sprint record so far this meet.

Well Mr. Apple and Orange...Had you read...which you didn't....take a look at the original post that I responded to. He said nothing about lately or
recent If Johnny V. is a bum, then don't bet him. I'm still looking at the facts that have been provided for me. Facts are one thing...Opinions are another. Have you or your buddy BTW ridden a horse in a race? Was there maybe a reason for a poor ride? I've watched some horrible rides by plenty of good jockeys, but I'll bet them back again if they are on a horse I like.

fpsoxfan 06-05-2007 03:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Payson Dave
and BTW and others are talking about his performance "lately"....apples and oranges...why pick a fight??

You obviously have not been reading much. Get the facts...read his original post...then read my original post....then what he wrote back....and then make an informed post about who's picking a fight.

Antitrust32 06-05-2007 03:26 PM

1 Attachment(s)
Attachment 425

Payson Dave 06-05-2007 03:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fpsoxfan
You obviously have not been reading much. Get the facts...read his original post...then read my original post....then what he wrote back....and then make an informed post about who's picking a fight.

I sure don't see where AS referred to JV as a bum...and I did reread the post and I still think that in context it is apples and oranges and that it is you that is looking for a "fight".

SentToStud 06-05-2007 03:31 PM

[quote=fpsoxfan]Well Mr. Apple and Orange...QUOTE]

Guess that makes me Mr. Pink. Why the F do I always have to be Mr. Pink?

Payson Dave 06-05-2007 03:38 PM

Post #67
Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
Sounds like they had an agreement beforehand. Frankly, the way Johnny has been riding it won't matter anyway.



Post# 72
Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
It's honestly amazing how poorly Johnny has ridden lately. It's like he doesn't care anymore. He was never as great a rider as some made him out to be, but he was pretty damn good, and lately he looks like the second coming of Mike Smith. It seems like if he isn't riding a cadillac for Pletcher he just " goes where they aint. "


Post# 88
Quote:

Originally Posted by fpsoxfan
[/b]

Really?? Through June 4th

Mounts: 453 W- 103 P-71 S-58

Earnings- 4th place $6,247,817

I guess your right....that's some bad riding.:confused:


apples and oranges

fpsoxfan 06-05-2007 03:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Payson Dave
I sure don't see where AS referred to JV as a bum...and I did reread the post and I still think that in context it is apples and oranges and that it is you that is looking for a "fight".

OK....So let's say he meant to say lately. And let's just say [b]Lately means...say....The Belmont Meet.[b]

John Velazquez-Belmont Park Stats

Starts: 96 Wins: 21 Place: 16 Show: 14

Win %: 22% Currently 1st

In the Money %: 53% Currently 2nd

So if stating FACTS is PICKING a FIGHT.......then so be it. But I love
when people like you and some of the others can't just say you know....he's right.....and be a man and move on. But the stats listed above aren't too bad for a guy who's riding bad lately.

philcski 06-05-2007 03:51 PM

What is everyone arguing for? She has no chance. The stop has been executed.
http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/sho...37&postcount=1

fpsoxfan 06-05-2007 03:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Payson Dave
Me thinks it has been too long since you have had any Brazilian Beef.:D

Yuck...:confused:

Cajungator26 06-05-2007 03:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski
What is everyone arguing for? She has no chance. The stop has been executed.
http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/sho...37&postcount=1

Uh oh!

I can't see her winning, but I do think she'll hit the board.

Payson Dave 06-05-2007 03:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SentToStud
Well, he has a point or two that make sense. What is Brazilian Beef?


There is a point to the apples side of the discussion and there is a point to the oranges side of the discussion...they are just different points...but what do I know... pox fan has decided I'm a crackhead and by his own reference he's a degenerate gambler..:D

Best we not get into the Brazilian Beef discussion.:D

Where the hell is Buffy when ya need her...shouldn't someone be reminded to "be nice"

slotdirt 06-05-2007 04:05 PM

I was just thinking of how long it has been since a filly won the Belmont. A few notable items that have happened since 1905:

Warren Harding elected president.

Fruit roll-ups invented.

Wal-Mart, McDonalds, and Bojangles.

Kev relates with a woman (allegedly).



That's quite a list.

blackthroatedwind 06-05-2007 04:13 PM

I think Genuine Risk was a pretty solid second back in 1980.

Very few fillies have tried this race in recent years, one the last was My Flag who ran well to be third, and I would guess that overall, in at least the last 30 or so years, they have outrun their odds.

Hickory Hill Hoff 06-05-2007 04:14 PM

You know...it REALLY doesn't matter what the stats are (IMO) , IT'S THE BELMONT STAKES!!!
A mile and a half...the addition of Rags and CP only make this race better....

oh by the way...the play for me, STILL is, an Curlin / Tiago exacta

Good Luck to all!

Downthestretch55 06-05-2007 04:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hickory Hill Hoff
You know...it REALLY doesn't matter what the stats are (IMO) , IT'S THE BELMONT STAKES!!!
A mile and a half...the addition of Rags and CP only make this race better....

oh by the way...the play for me, STILL is, an Curlin / Tiago exacta

Good Luck to all!

HHH,
At this point I agree with your pick...Curlin/Tiago. Tri later. I'm not sure of Rags at all. And, get this, Hard spun is my toss.
Also, to me, the undercard has much better value. We'll see how that shows up. Does anyone want to run a Belmont Day contest?
Good racin' luck!
DTS

Payson Dave 06-05-2007 04:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Downthestretch55
HHH,
Does anyone want to run a Belmont Day contest?

how about one $20 win selection per each race for the entire card...best ROI gets bragging rights

Downthestretch55 06-05-2007 04:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Payson Dave
how about one win selection per race for the entire card...best ROI gets bragging rights

P Dave,
That sounds like a good idea.
I'm a "moron" about running this kind of thing.
If anyone wants to post the card in the "selections" or "contests" section, I'm sure it would be fun. Watch Seattle win it!

Antitrust32 06-05-2007 04:52 PM

make it a $2 win selection. Keeps things easy and it will still produce the same results.

Payson Dave 06-05-2007 04:52 PM

Start a Belmont Card thread in the Contest area...maybe require each entrants selections for the entire card be posted by 11:30am on Saturday


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