I didn't look and I stopped looking at your thread once I saw your ?, but I hear Eric Clapton strumming his guitar as I post this. The 3rd place finisher was ex FDNY's Joe Aquillino's BADGE.

Works for CDI.

that and Red Bullet are exceptions...overall my statement is correct the vast majority of the time and you would do well to heed that trend this year or prepare to lose again.

There have been a few that didn't run in the Derby from recent memory that hit the board in the Preakness...

Eddington hit the board finishing 3rd in 2004, Scrappy T finished 2nd in 2005, and obviously last year, Bernardini won and Hemingway's Key finished 3rd.

the numbers over time will return to the trend i identified. this year only KD horses will be in the top 3.

That's been on my mind a lot too.

Do you guys really believe Hard Spun will be 7/2 or above when the gates open for the Preakness? I think those odds offer great value on a horse who ran fast early middle and late in the Derby.

Take a look at the charts of the Kentucky Derby. Hard Spun was 1st every call until the stretch. The rest were bringing up the rear for the first half except for Curlin who was 13th, after 4 furlongs. After 6 furlongs Street Sense was about to make his move but was 17th and Curlin and imawildandcrazygut was last. At the q/p Street Sense was 3rd and Curlin was 8th imawildandcrazyguy was 16th. In the stretch Hard Spun increased his lead on 18 other horses except for Street Sense.

If Street Sense encountered any traffic problems in the Derby Hard Spun would have won going away and he's an even money favorite to win the Preakness.

If Hard Spun can come back and run strong on Saturday I think he's the horse to beat. If he's 5/2 or over I think he's a strong win bet. If he regresses I think Street Sense will be the winner.

My crystal ball tells me that one of the top 3 will be off the board.

Badge was a Cream tune. Clapton was awesome like he always is on guitar.

not this year.. the KD horses (including CQ) are clearly better than the Preakness newbies.

For those interested hit on the link for Black Throated Wind....it's the 6th song.


http://www.archive.org/details/gd94-...189.sbeok.shnf

I can understand why one could come to that conclusion. Hard Spun ran a tough race and is coming back in short order. But what makes you think Hard Spun fired his best shot in Kentucky and won't be able to run at the very least an in the money performance?

I wrote a blog on KentuckyDerby.com this spring. At the moment, I am not employed by CDI.

I assume they are mutually exclusive events?

What are? Writing a blog and being employed by CDI?

It was a joke.....ya know, you came here about the blog " incident ", and now you're not working there.

I was joking that I assume they aren't related.

I'm a little slow sometimes.

I was contracted by CDI to write the blog through the Derby.

If you hurry Byk is still taking applications for the Carolina Barbeque in Saratoga.

I've heard it gets really muggy up there in August. I mean, it's hot in Miami. But it's a different kind of hot.

I can get hot but it's a bit overblown....mostly it's pretty nice unless you get really unlucky with the rain.

You've never been there?

Nope. Never been to Del Mar either. Might try to do both this summer.

Byk is apparently inviting all board members to stay with him so you have a free place to stay.

I'm going to Del Mar (opening weekend) for the first time this summer.

I don't care if you have to walk to Saratoga, you have to make it there...

I'll Toast to That!

I missed Saratoga last year. I don't plan to miss it this year.

This is a very simple betting race for me.

I'm heavily playing an exacta wheel with Curlin and HS on top of Street Sense.

I'm also playing a single trifecta key HS and Curlin over HS and Curlin over Street Sense.

no "new shooters"?

No---the new shooters are all very moderate....except for maybe Flying First Class....but, I'm going out on a limb and saying he's a sprinter.