I think AGS might be 5-8 lengths back in the Derby, post will depend alot on that actually....

Not to mention the 10 horses running up your butt forcing you to be a lot closer to the pace then you'd like for fear of being trampled.

This always leaves me scratching my head. Like they just wind them up so far and then they wind them up even more. Does the horse know he's only supposed to give so much?

How day do dat?

there are plenty of horses that have ran like crap in their final prep. I personally would do the same thing, I would have the horse at 50% and just get him out their to keep their mind right. I don't know the first thing about training horses but my guess is that they think the race will benefit them just not having their fitness level up, almost letting them race into form, like the old days

WEll they are working with the horse w/ the blinks and ear muffs and maybe they can get him to relax. Tough task to change him at this pt. but maybe that's a reason...

Okay let's name some and try to determine if they had them "not fully cranked' or maybe they just threw a clunker.

Secretariat, 1973 Wood Memorial.

Think they didnt have him fully cranked?

Oh how about Giacamo? Maybe they dialed him down a notch, you know just so he wouldnt drain the tank before the derby....

Your turn..

I dont follow your logic?

No idea, and too tired to get all researchy right now

How?

I know you like GH to win the Derby, but have you seen Notional's TG sheet, a great progression line. GH didn't run too hot of a number first out, and he bore'd in which is never a good sign.

I read a while back that their is one one serious gambler that if they get a bi on their sheet they are auto plays against.

What I am hoping is that GH runs well to keep the focus off Notional as O'Neil's top horse. If he runs like crap tomorrow, then Notional will get all the attention...although, maybe not with the whole bank story and such

As a betting proposition in the Derby....

I see him being a really nice horse at a shorter distance than the Derby.

That's a nice way to put it. I was going to say he has a better chance of siring a giraffe than lasting ten furlongs.

No I meant your logic that the horse that was second in the Fl Derby and has a good sheet pattern would go off 40 to 60-1 in the Derby? He wont be better than 20-1 no matter what happens tomorrow.

Help his price, ok I get it now.

He'll be over 20/1, 20/1 will be 6th or 7th favorite.....40/1 is a little crazy, 30/1 is more like it, maybe I am wrong, I don't know.....

who?

Notional.

The money will be spread pretty good which leads to very few horses really being huge odds.

Who knows. Are any of them really bred to run that far anymore? But somebodys got to win

I think my favorite quote by a jockey was Bailey on High Fly when asked if he'd get the distance of the Derby; "He'll get it, I'm just not sure how fast"

I posted this on another forum, maybe none are bred for the distance (except on turf in Hard Spun's case) but some are worse than others.

Horse - Sire AWD/Dam Sire AWD
Any Given Saturday - 6.9f/8.2f
Chelokee - 6.7/6.8
Circular Quay - 7.8/7.0
Cowtown Cat - 6.9/7.0
Curlin - 7.3/7.6
Deadly Dealer - 6.8/7.1
Dominican - 6.9/7.1
Great Hunter - 7.3/7.3
Hard Spun - 8.0/8.0
Liquidity - 7.6/7.5
Nobiz Like Shobiz - 7.4/7.0
Notional - 6.2/7.0
Officer Rocket - 6.2/7.3
Sam P - 6.8/8.0
Scat Daddy - 6.7/7.2
Stormello - 6.5/6.4
Street Sense - 7.0/7.1
Teuflesberg - 6.7/7.1
Tiago - 8.1/7.0
Zanjero - 6.7/8.2

Bold Start - 6.7/6.9
Joe Got Even - 7.3/7.3
Sedgefield - 7.3/9.1
Sightseeing - 7.6/8.4

With Kent Desormeaux riding Stormello you don't know what he's going to do.

check while on the lead?

Good 'cause if you mentioned Bluegrass Cat I'd probably get really mad right about now :mad:

That goes for the rest of youse too. May I never hear that name again.

Yeah what is going on with that? He did same thing in the BC juv. if memory serves. I cant imagine it's a soundness issue to have gone on that long. Just pyschological? What was his last race, the Bob Lewis??:confused:

He'll go to his magic bag of tricks in the final furlong. I'm still laughing from the time he said that after talking Kristin Mulhal into running her horse in the Derby. Just cant remeber the horse right now, just Kent being Kent.

Imperialism?

At least he'll have 19 butts to choose from to ride up on...Derby Day is probably his dream come true.

Outside of prison.

Well......to be fair.....the guy has won the race twice.
He is not exactly my favorite jock either, but there are not a ton of guys with multiple Derby wins....so maybe he deserves SOME credit.

lmao, oh wow that brought back memories. Thanks. ;)

There's 8 pages on this thread so I haven't gotten all the way through but I was just thinking about how interesting it is that the top 2yos are by and large still in one piece, talented, and competitive at age 3. I was looking at the horses that are off the trail and most of them weren't at the level of Street Sense, Nobiz, Scat Daddy, Circular Quay, Great Hunter, etc. as 2yos. The ones that dropped off, for the most part, just had promise but fulfillment was still relatively yet to come. I mean am I imagining things that this group seems to've held up better from age 2 to 3 than usual?

Call me crazy, but I'm going to wait for today's races to decide who my real contenders are.

--Dunbar

what a radical concept?

Curlin got it done and moved to the first group, Deadly Dealer didn't and is gone. Other than that my opinions haven't changed on the Derby.

street sense
any givensat
circular quay
curlin
think one of these four have the best shot

I'll try to find the post where Pillow made the graphic, and Curlin is a monster. I tried to tell you.

He's here, look no further than Whodey, that is 100% without a doubt Euro. He was even braggin on the ESPN board the he would get back here eventually and he did.

Thanks

I didn't even bet the Arkansas Derby

didn't have a dime by the time that race was run and it's a good thing cause I would have tossed Deadly Dealer from the trifecta. that track was so speed biased it was disgusting

Well Curlin moved to the top of my list the way he finished the final furlong. Has not been really tested and doesnt have alot of experiance, but he looks to be able to get the distance with some finish. Reminds me of Showing up last year.