Not going to change my picks but going through the card, I’m not against Scylla in the Honorable Miss but anyone else think this horse Little Prankster could hit the board at 15/1?

I don’t know the story as to why she missed so much time but last out was not a bad race and she’s got a race from her 3YO year that puts her in contention if she can run back to it.

Looked at Little Prankster long and hard but ultimately decided against liking her...maybe will throw her in underneath though because she's not without merit.

Best Bet: Race 9 #9 Jody's Pride 4/1 - I do respect Scylla in here and maybe shell just love the 6F - she has always had that cutback look...but I don't know I still think she might just need better rides at those elongated sprint distances to see her best. But I have a hard time seeing this pace not being very contentious in here today and I have a feeling Jody's Pride is going to come rolling late. She's really good in my opinion and has basically always run well, the few races she wasn't super competitive were really high class fields/winners and a lot of times at distances I think were too long. Maybe shell need 7 or 8 furlongs after all but I have a funny feeling she might just as well like this distance if there's any legitimate pace to run at.

Best Value: Race 4 #1 Kigali 8/1- Really struggled coming up with anything else on this card...I think Kigali has some upside and can possibly beat Eliminate.

Wrong Bauer. Damn.

Zverev ran 2nd and paid $4.90. Finally over the $200 mark.


$96.00 wagered
$200.80 returned

I’ll be busy this week so going to post my thoughts for Wednesday and Thursday now.

Wednesday.

Race 6. #7 Remi’s Moon, 5/1.
Race 8. #3 Princess Madison, 6/1.
(Alternate if picks are scratched - Race 9, #4 The Commish, 6/1)

Thursday.

Race 6. #3 Collect the Data, 6/1.
Race 9. #6 Crudo, 6/1.
(Alternate if picks are scratched - Race 10, #Kid Kreesa, 8/1)

Correction for today. Remis Moon is race 4.

7/23
Best Bet: Race 7 #3 Beira 7/2 - steadily improving into that last effort which I actually think was legitimate. Might look to have come from nowhere but I think could repeat and if so they could be in trouble.
Best Value: Race 9 #8 Guilty 20/1 - Total stab here but it was either this or Catch a Wave on a card I don't love so ill take a swing...I do think King Puck is a very likely winner and also respect Light Fantastic...that said I don't know that either are overwhelmingly scary...Guilty will be a huge price and us clearly bred to love the turf. Working at Finger Lakes so who really knows, and especially without any works that really jump off the page...I don't know that Barrow has ever won a turf race but that should just add to the price as I doubt he's had many bred like this and hasn't tried a ton...what I do know from my time living out near Finger Lakes and paying some mild attention to the track at times is that Barrow can send them out ready to fire first out, particularly young horses in sprints. Again, a total stab but should be a huge number at least.

Good luck. I’ve got both of those horses in my very small Pick 5 (keying Talkin in Cursive and Crystal Quest in the first two legs so I’ll probably be out early.) but if not, I’d love to see these horses in the winner’s circle!

Santana has been great in turf sprints so far this meet. I don’t have the numbers in hand to back that up but it feels that way.

Blanked for today. Princess Madison almost got up for place. Remis Moon looked ready to make a move and flattened out.


$104.00 wagered
$200.80 returned

Prat in turf routes.

Prat is usually so good at timing turf races but it seems like recently he’s been off, leaving his horse with way too much to do once it hits the stretch. Anyone else noticing this? He’ll be on what I assume will be a heavy favorite in Tax Implications but I think he’s vulnerable there (and again, I’ll probably put him in the winners circle with this post.)

Prat has 1 more win than Rosario with 18 more mounts and 2 more than Carmouche with 14 more mounts...I've been displeased with a couple of his rides on horses I needed...I do think its probably for the most part an anomaly and he will heat up but he definitely seems off a bit

He’ll heat up but it’s been frustrating. He’s 2/16 on the turf.

I’m going to change my picks for today. Stick with Crudo in the Curlin, who I think is going to wire the field. For my other pick, I’m going to go a little smaller and go with #7 Proctor Street in Race 8 at a short 2/1. A few things here. Proctor Street draws Irad who presumably gave up his ride on Mo Fox Givin. In her first off the layoff, Proctor Street ran great and will beat this field with a slight improvement. With the upgrade from Curtis to Irad, there’s not reason to think she doesn’t move forward here. #5 Tax Implications will be the favorite here but note Prat has been a little off and there are a few things I don’t like about her. Other than her Eatontown last June, none of her figures stand out. I guess you could say the Matriarch but I’m generally skeptical of big figures in turf races where the horse was simply picking up pieces late in the race without really vying for the win.

7/24
How quickly Saratoga can cool you off...
Best Bet: Race 10 #6 Doomed 5/1 - Really like this one today..improved vastly for Cox last out and I absolutely love the stretch to 9f today. Doesn't have the quickest turn of foot but has that slow into gear powerful kick, was really striding out the final furlong last out. I really think he will win in here today and just hope the ML price holds or comes close to...you would think it will..but it is Prat and Cox. Ill be trying to get live with no backups in all my late horizontals.

Best Value: Race 5 #7 Russi 6/1 - I don't recall the last time Bond won a race but it feels like forever...ill try to wake up the barn with a horse I've always had a thing for today. Russi loves Saratoga and the 5.5...maybe will need one off the bench but the price should be Ok even with Yarrow out. Set and Vacation Dance can win but I'm not exactly terrified of either.

Oof. Can I switch back? Collect the Data wires them at 8/1!

Proctor Street was much the best. Now, can we get Crudo home so I can capitalize on this double? I’ll also settle for Hypnus who I think has been sneaky good recently.

The two worst performances of the race. $8.60 back from Proctor Street.

$112.00 wagered
$209.40 returned

Haven’t looked at tomorrow yet.

I’ve looked briefly and don’t like the card at all. I don’t think I’m going to bet any of these races. If I do, here are two horses I like:

Race 5. #2 Hidden Agenda, 12/1. Flashed a little bit of speed in a MSW race on the turf back in May on a good turf. They’ve tried to run back on turf but have gotten washed off. Elliott aboard. He needs to get out of the gate clean and this one has a shot. Really don’t love any of the likely favorites in this race so why not take a swing?

Race 9 (Amsterdam Stakes). #5 Gate to Wire, 5/1. I’ve liked this horse for a while and note the effort in the Swale makes him a player here if he can repeat. His three races after that were the FOY around two turns, then the Pat Day Mile in the slop and the Woody Stephens on a muddy track. Let’s get him back around one turn on a fast track and see what happens.

7/25

Best Bet: Race 10 #4 Professor Grace 5/1 - Hoping with these chilly connections to get all the ML. Should like the stretch and hope javy gets a little more forward today. View as the most likely winner in this field.

Best Value: Ace 4 #4 True Connection 9/2 - while hopefully many dismiss the last as a bad field/sloppy track out of nowhere performance I'm guessing Brad Cox just has this horse the best hes been in a while. Hes pretty well bred and showed some ability early in his career.I suppose you could argue if he was really moving forward why this spot but its probably just being realistic and wanting to win at Saratoga.

Swing and a miss. Disappointed neither of these hit but more disappointed that I showed no discipline and spent way too much money on this card

$120.00 wagered
$209.10 returned

Saturday.

Race 9. Lake George. #3 Daisy Flyer, 12/1. Obviously, Classic Q is the one to beat here but a few things going against her. The course may not be as speed friendly, she has to go further, and while there isn’t much pace signed on, I think you’ll see a little more pace pressure in a bigger field. Daisy Flyer has already beaten Classic Q, and that was on the speed friendly Gulfstream turf course (though CQ was not up front that day). I loved how she got into stride in the lane and think if she gets any pace at all to run at, she could be flying late and beat them all here. She needs to get faster from last out but she’s been away for a few months and it would be no surprise if she’s developed since we last saw her.

Race 10. Jim Dandy. #1 Baeza, 3/1. If I can get 3/1 on him, I’ll be happy. Sovereignty is obviously the best horse in this race but you’ve got to think Bill Mott is looking toward the Travers and won’t lose sleep with a 2nd place finish here. Baeza gets Berrios back and should get the perfect trip just behind Mo Plex.

Some thoughts on the Late Pick 5 today. Not going to do this frequently but I like the sequence, the key being to single Baeza and go wide in Race 11. It was tempting to try to go wider Race 8 but I really like this Finger Lakes invader and didn’t want to dilute that opinion too much. If playing a bigger ticket, I’d probably go wider Race 9 as many of the horses in that race are capable but also wouldn’t blame anyone who wants to simply single Classic Q based on the projected pace scenario.

Race 8.
#4 Blamicker 8/1 (Englehart/Worrie) (A)
#2 Stewie 5/1 (Begg/I Ortiz) (A)
#9 Kenny Be 7/2 (Duggan/J Ortiz) (B)
#3 Vekinda 4/1 (Weaver/Franco) (-)

Race 9.
#3 Daisy Flyer, 12/1 (Arnold/Lezcano) (A)
#4 Lavender Disaster, 5/2 (Brown/I Ortiz) (A)
#5 Classic Q, 2/1 (Casse/J Ortiz) (C)
#2 Pretty Lavish, 12/1 (Motion/Castellano) (C)

Race 10.
#1 Baeza, 3/1 (Shirreffs/Berrios) (A)
#5 Sovereignty, 2/5 (Mott/Alvarado) (C)
#3 Mo Plex, 10/1 (Englehart/Franco) (-)
#2 Sandman, 6/1 (Casse/J Ortiz) (-)

Race 11.
#6 Nonna Lynne, 6/1 (Brown/Franco) (A)
#9 Hello Beauty, 5/2 (Sisterson/Dettori) (A)
#1/1A De Paz Entry, 6/1 (B)
#3 Off Script, 9/2 (Walden/I Ortiz) (B)

Race 12.
#6 Majestic Michael, 8/1 (Green/Carmouche) (A)
#7 Fateful Lightning, 2/1 (Cox/Franco) (A)
#11 Got Stripes, 12/1 (Devaux/J Ortiz) (C)
#9 Battle Drum, 6/1 (Pletcher/I Ortiz) (C)

Pick 5 play (Simple A+B)
2,4,9 / 3,4 / 1 / 1,2,3,4,6,9 / 6,7 ($36.00)