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-   -   Sat 6/13 Play (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=57534)

herkhorse 06-13-2015 06:58 PM

CD pick 5
379/126/2379/124/13

herkhorse 06-13-2015 07:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gamlin1 (Post 1031429)
Wanted the 3 in leg 3 to come in Fing chalk

+21.20

Lost money again :zz:

you and me both

ScottJ 06-13-2015 07:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jms62 (Post 1031394)
This is nothing against you Scott but filing a game plan is an absurd idea. Maybe this is an opportunity for us as horseplayers to compile statistcs on jockeys and how they perform on speed horses in these situations.

No offense taken - thanks for the views. Both JRC (Japan) and Hong Kong DEMAND plans filed from the trainer prior to their races covering issues like intention to go for the lead, midpack, or close, whether the race is a warm-up for a later event, or any infirmaties that the horse has experienced. Moreso, both the JRC and HKJC require the horse's weight to be reported on a race-by-race basis. Both of these pieces of information would be huge benefits to the US-based past performance analysis.

ScottJ 06-13-2015 07:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid (Post 1031401)
There is also no way you can win when you take a confirmed speed horse out of their game. Where did Heart to Heart end up today? You're telling me Saez wouldn't have had a better chance if he just let his horse run? The thing stalked a freaking :44 and change half last time!

This is exactly the point - if the intention was to rate the horse in order to teach some new lessons that might be applicable for longer distances, wouldn't you have wanted to know that as a handicapper. I would have said to myself, this horse is not pressing a 44:4-45:3 half mile time so what implications does that have on my betting strategy.

The problem is that you can no longer decide who is leaving and who is stalking - the paces seem random. Take for example Cornelio Velasquez's win on Knuckle Curve in the 7th race. Ask yourself this question : Cornelio, normally a very conservative rider, breaks with this horse and pushes him to the lead. I would have liked to know that the strategy was to put this one on the lead since my bets on both Tiz the Moment and Fitzgerald would have been different.

ScottJ 06-13-2015 07:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gamlin1 (Post 1031429)
Wanted the 3 in leg 3 to come in Fing chalk

+21.20

Lost money again :zz:

Something I have found over the years : The probability of the favorite winning increases proportionally with the amount of coverage you have in that leg.

casp0555 06-13-2015 07:27 PM

CD 6
$1.50 Pick4 - 1,2,3/2,7,9/1,2,5/5
$40.50

Lava 06-13-2015 07:30 PM

Churchill Race 6 $20 WP #6

Benny 06-13-2015 07:31 PM

Churchill Downs Race: 6
Amount: $0.50 Type: Pick 4 Horses: 1,3,6/2,4,7-9/1,2,5/2,5,7
Total Cost: $67.50

Lava 06-13-2015 07:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lava (Post 1031437)
Churchill Race 6 $20 WP #6

$274

casp0555 06-13-2015 07:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lava (Post 1031445)
$274

nice lava .....i got shut out on my saver :wf

$2 Pick3 - 7,9/1,2,4,5,7/5
$20

herkhorse 06-13-2015 07:54 PM

nice lava

EVD pick 4

37/27/36/all

Lava 06-13-2015 08:05 PM

Thanks everyone

Churchill Race 7 $20 WP #1

herkhorse 06-13-2015 08:08 PM

Cd 7

20 Dd 2/4

casp0555 06-13-2015 08:19 PM

you have got to be kidding me....:wf


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