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- - Oxbow (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=50772)

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dunbar (Post 928917)

Do you (or does anyone else) have the exacta will-pays with Orb in first position?

--Dunbar

Only from memory
Oxbow $19 for a $1
don't know about TT five...I'd guess at least $40
The rest were between $12 and $16.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Travis Stone (Post 928898)

As for the jockeys... this is a serious problem in American racing. It's getting worse by the minute. At LAD where, granted, we don't have a bunch of future Hall of Famers, we had a rider yank a horse off the pace that was ultimately posted over 25 seconds for the quarter despite a good rail/speed bias.

Well said. It seems like most ride races like they are on synthetic surfaces, whether they are or not.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Travis Stone (Post 928898)

Quote:

Originally Posted by cmorioles (Post 928926)

Well said. It seems like most ride races like they are on synthetic surfaces, whether they are or not.

The horse I was talking about just ran back today (Race 5, #5 Club). Last time out, third-off the layoff w/improved figure in last (my favorite angle), he broke on top and had a 1-1/2 length lead at the first call but was pulled back to fourth. The fractions were 26-flat and 52 4/5. He finished 3rd after swimming in the stretch of the inside/speedy track.

Today the same rider put him on the lead with two other horses and he held for second at 19-1. The winner was the second place finisher from his last out. Now, the splits today were 25-1/5 and 49-1/5... the only mistake was not stepping on it a bit and taking a clear lead. The track is rather speed friendly, he probably would have won.

Quote:

Originally Posted by cmorioles (Post 928926)

Well said. It seems like most ride races like they are on synthetic surfaces, whether they are or not.

I wonder what Oneills opinion was of Kriggers ride in the Preakness, there was a split second decision to be made and he could have been on the lead, Stevens was not going to fight him for it, have to think his big race inexperience cost him a chance to at least give the race a go.

Quote:

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up (Post 928948)

Not sure about Oneill, but i was thrilled where he placed him. Looked like a replica of the Santa Anita Derby ride. They have changed his training regimen back in forth for the past two months and it looks like it has taken it's toll on him.

Quote:

Originally Posted by outofthebox (Post 928969)

In the SA Derby he was running pretty fast and was just outrun early by the very fast Super Ninety Nine. That was hardly the case yesterday. On my figures, he ran a 90 to the half mile (SNN was a 91), while yesterday he allowed Oxbow to lead with only an 85.

Fantastic Handicapping!

Quote:

Originally Posted by Travis Stone (Post 928898)

Some rough math this AM indicates that Orb was more like 9-5 (probably one or two clicks lower) in the exotics, but definitely not 3-5 like he was in the win pool.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Port Conway Lane (Post 928920)

Only from memory
Oxbow $19 for a $1
don't know about TT five...I'd guess at least $40
The rest were between $12 and $16.

Using $19 for Oxbow's $1 exacta pay, $50 for TT5, and $15 for the rest of the field, Orb was at 1.1 to 1 win odds in the exacta pool. If I use $13 instead of $15 for all the other horses (besides Oxbow and TT5), I get Orb at 0.9 to 1 win odds from the exacta pool. So pretty close to even money, if PCL's memory is accurate. Substantially higher than Orb's win pool odds.

--Dunbar