I like this horse in this spot.:D

Alternation's team is, oddly, deciding to rest rather than run.

http://www.drf.com/news/belmont-stak...est-rather-run

Absolutely f@cking stupid.

Just what we need, conservative connections. Who wouldn't take a horse who's completely healthy and leave him in his stall for the next few months?

Yeah perhaps they are waiting for him to injury himself in training and thn have to lay him up again? Why race a healthy horse in form when you can do whats right by him.. I guess the goal is the Travers and retirement

The Belmont was Alternation's best chance to beat more talented horses and win a GI. It's beyond illogical, unless he's really not doing as well as Von Hemel says he is.

I particularly like the way they say they're going to point for races like the Travers instead of the Belmont...as if asking a horse to run in both would be insane. Never mind that a whole lot of Travers winners in recent years (Lemon Drop Kid, Point Given, Medaglia Doro, Ten Most Wanted, Birdstone, Summer Bird, etc) were all Belmont Stakes participants.

Coming in off that Peter Pan performance, the Belmont would seem to come at a perfect time for him. It makes no sense to me whatsoever.

Jim Dandy-Travers is what they are shooting for

Stupid but whatever

All those horses you noted also ran in the Kentucky Derby. Alternation was only making his 2nd stakes appearance in the Peter Pan.

In the last 18 runnings of the Peter Pan since the great A.P. Indy in '92, no winner of the race has gone on to win the Belmont. And only upsetter Coastal and Woody Stephens-trained Danzig Connection were winners of both in the preceding decades.

Well, this 'splains it!

I think you can argue it either way. Alternation has a similar career arc as Summer Bird, Twining, Oratory, Virginia Rapids, Colonial Affair, Unshaded, Composer, etc. Some of those ran well in the Belmont, some ran terrible, still others skipped the race entirely.

As long as he shows up for races like the Dwyer, Haskell, Jim Dandy, and Travers, I wouldn't fault the connections for this move.

I don't know... with this crop, his recent win, distance breeding etc., I don't think you skip the race. I'd roll the dice and hope I'm Colonial Affair instead of Composer any day of the week. No guarantee you're in good form/health come late July. Not to mention it's the Belmont Stakes.

So your argument is that horses that run in the Belmont Stakes can also win the Travers if they ran in the Kentucky Derby.
But....
If they didn't run in the Kentucky Derby, then running in the Belmont would ruin their chances of winning the Travers?

That doesn't make any sense to me.

Personally I don't think the horse is a particularly likely winner of either the Belmont or the Travers, but I don't see how running in this race would negatively affect his chances to win the Travers.

Well of course it doesn't happen very often because the best 3yos are typically in the first two legs of the crown, rather than the Peter Pan. That doesn't change the fact that in terms of timing, its set up as a pretty good prep race for the Belmont.

Nope.

The point not literally spelled out with my comment was that Alternation is, relatively speaking, "behind" those other horses (with the possible exception of Summer Bird) in terms of seasoning, particularly in the graded stakes ranks.

I wasn't really trying to comment on his ability to win the Travers. I was merely playing Devil's Advocate with regards to skipping the Belmont.

An even better reason then not to run in the Belmont:

He's probably not good enough.

Would it be foolish to skip the Belmont and run in the Pegasus and/or the Dwyer?

Adios Charlie, a nose back in the Peter Pan, is doing exactly that.

His distance limitations are well defined. It's not that Alternation is a world-beater, but he's a grinder who is bred to go far. Not to mention it won't take much to beat this group, as we've seen all year long.

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please FLIPPO is as disgusted about the skipping the Belmont as any of us are.. You dont skip the Belmont to hope to win the Pegasus

I don't think it's quite an open and shut case on Adios Charlie just yet. He's been in the exacta in all 4 starts at 4 different distances. He dusted the subsequent Preakness show horse in his stakes debut. His pedigree is littered with stakes winners at route distances.

Conquistador Cielo and Gone West ran in the Belmont.

All the more reason to run in the Belmont. The idea of "let's sit our horse on the sidelines because he doesn't have enough seasoning in graded stakes races" is like saying "I don't want to learn to play the guitar because I don't currently know how to play all my favorite songs." Its circular logic.

Also, is his "seasoning" really that far behind Animal Kingdom's....the likely favorite? Haven't they both made the same number of lifetime starts?