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-   -   CONTEST: The 'Top 5' Thread -- Trifecta Box (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=42110)

cal828 05-04-2011 10:18 AM

1. Dialed In
2. Shackleford
3. MMM
4. Stay Thirsty
5. Santiva

analyizethis 05-04-2011 11:14 AM

We need to know post position. There is not one runner in this race who can win from the 20 post ala Big Brown.

MaTH716 05-04-2011 11:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by analyizethis (Post 773640)
We need to know post position. There is not one runner in this race who can win from the 20 post ala Big Brown.

There is not one runner who can win it from the 20 the way Big Brown did. But one of the deep closers might be able to win from out there if the race does fall apart.

Indian Charlie 05-04-2011 12:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by analyizethis (Post 773640)
We need to know post position. There is not one runner in this race who can win from the 20 post ala Big Brown.

Quote:

Originally Posted by MaTH716 (Post 773641)
There is not one runner who can win it from the 20 the way Big Brown did. But one of the deep closers might be able to win from out there if the race does fall apart.

This race is shaping up to be so much like the Big Brown year, it's not even funny.

robfla 05-04-2011 12:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie (Post 773654)
This race is shaping up to be so much like the Big Brown year, it's not even funny.

who is this year's BB?

NTamm1215 05-04-2011 12:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie (Post 773654)
This race is shaping up to be so much like the Big Brown year, it's not even funny.

Don't even try to compare Uncle Mo right now to Big Brown going into the 2008 Derby. That's a reach, even for someone as myopic as you.

knickslions2 05-04-2011 12:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NTamm1215 (Post 773658)
Don't even try to compare Uncle Mo right now to Big Brown going into the 2008 Derby. That's a reach, even for someone as myopic as you.

I think he means Mucho Macho Man :)

Heels1989 05-04-2011 12:51 PM

1. Dialed In
2. Shackleford
3. Pants on Fire
4. AAA
5. Brilliant Speed

somerfrost 05-04-2011 12:58 PM

1. Archarcharch
2. Master of Hounds (defies all logic but....)
3. Pants on Fire
4. Shackleford
5. Brilliant Speed

Indian Charlie 05-04-2011 02:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NTamm1215 (Post 773658)
Don't even try to compare Uncle Mo right now to Big Brown going into the 2008 Derby. That's a reach, even for someone as myopic as you.

Now I'm myopic?

Better that than clueless.

Ok, let me spell this out to you Nick.

As you incessantly like to remind us, this field is atrocious.

Even more atrocious, according to you, than the field Big Brown wasn't challenged by.

Like Big Brown, Uncle Mo has shown ability far beyond anyone else in the field.

Like Big Brown, Mo is lightly raced, especially this year.

I'm pretty sure I recall some talk about soundness with Big Brown, pre Derby. Just like with Uncle Mo.

Like Big Brown, there is talk about Uncle Mo's distance challenged pedigree.

The only real difference between them is that Big Brown won an atrocious Fla Derby in his last prep, while Uncle Mo ran a crappy third in the Wood. To me, this is almost a complete non factor for the myopic reasons I've posted previously.

But yeah, there are no similarities at all.

lemoncrush 05-04-2011 02:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie (Post 773689)
Now I'm myopic?

Better that than clueless.

Ok, let me spell this out to you Nick.

As you incessantly like to remind us, this field is atrocious.

Even more atrocious, according to you, than the field Big Brown wasn't challenged by.

Like Big Brown, Uncle Mo has shown ability far beyond anyone else in the field.

Like Big Brown, Mo is lightly raced, especially this year.

I'm pretty sure I recall some talk about soundness with Big Brown, pre Derby. Just like with Uncle Mo.

Like Big Brown, there is talk about Uncle Mo's distance challenged pedigree.

The only real difference between them is that Big Brown won an atrocious Fla Derby in his last prep, while Uncle Mo ran a crappy third in the Wood. To me, this is almost a complete non factor for the myopic reasons I've posted previously.

But yeah, there are no similarities at all.

I see the similarities, but the most important difference is that Big Brown didn't burst onto the scene until an Allowance race and Florida Derby in the spring of his 3-year old year, giving a glimpse of something special (at least compared to the other 3-year olds last Spring).

Uncle Mo's signs of greatness came 6 months ago as a 2-year old, and nobody knows if he is still the same.

slotdirt 05-04-2011 02:41 PM

I hate this field.

Indian Charlie 05-04-2011 02:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lemoncrush (Post 773725)
I see the similarities, but the most important difference is that Big Brown didn't burst onto the scene until an Allowance race and Florida Derby in the spring of his 3-year old year, giving a glimpse of something special (at least compared to the other 3-year olds last Spring).

Uncle Mo's signs of greatness came 6 months ago as a 2-year old, and nobody knows if he is still the same.

I don't see any relevance though to Big Brown's late arrival, but yeah, that is a difference.

I saw enough in the Timely Writer to think that Uncle Mo is still better than those he will, or might be, facing Saturday.

NTamm1215 05-04-2011 02:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie (Post 773689)
Now I'm myopic?

Better that than clueless.

Ok, let me spell this out to you Nick.

As you incessantly like to remind us, this field is atrocious.

Even more atrocious, according to you, than the field Big Brown wasn't challenged by.

Like Big Brown, Uncle Mo has shown ability far beyond anyone else in the field.

Like Big Brown, Mo is lightly raced, especially this year.

I'm pretty sure I recall some talk about soundness with Big Brown, pre Derby. Just like with Uncle Mo.

Like Big Brown, there is talk about Uncle Mo's distance challenged pedigree.

The only real difference between them is that Big Brown won an atrocious Fla Derby in his last prep, while Uncle Mo ran a crappy third in the Wood. To me, this is almost a complete non factor for the myopic reasons I've posted previously.
But yeah, there are no similarities at all.

This is a VERY casual approach to their respective final preps. The field for the Florida Derby in 2008 was hardly accomplished but it was stronger than this year's Wood field. That, coupled with the fact that Big Brown ran a huge race that day to win from the 12 hole, set a very solid pace and keep on going, leads to the conclusion that the only similarity between Big Brown's Fla Derby and Uncle Mo's Wood is that they were both run at 1 1/8 miles.

I have never wavered from the opinion that the 2010 Uncle Mo will rip this field to shreds. However, we differ opinion-wise because I think the 2010 Uncle Mo is a thing of the past. You have few viable excuses for his Wood defeat other than "he didn't look comfortable" and apparently still believe his Timely Writer win was impressive despite walking through the opening half-mile and beating two horses who were pummeled in graded stakes in their next start.

Really, Uncle Mo at this point and Big Brown 3 years ago couldn't have been more different. One was just developing into something special while the other is trying to find what made him special. I honestly hope we see the same Uncle Mo on Saturday that we did in November at CD. If it means I don't cash any tickets I'll be happy because racing will have a star to follow and a big-mouth owner to grab headlines.

slotdirt 05-04-2011 02:54 PM

As much as I hated Big Brown, he'd dust this field by a dozen lengths. And I don't think that's an exaggeration.

Indian Charlie 05-04-2011 03:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NTamm1215 (Post 773736)
This is a VERY casual approach to their respective final preps. The field for the Florida Derby in 2008 was hardly accomplished but it was stronger than this year's Wood field. That, coupled with the fact that Big Brown ran a huge race that day to win from the 12 hole, set a very solid pace and keep on going, leads to the conclusion that the only similarity between Big Brown's Fla Derby and Uncle Mo's Wood is that they were both run at 1 1/8 miles.

I have never wavered from the opinion that the 2010 Uncle Mo will rip this field to shreds. However, we differ opinion-wise because I think the 2010 Uncle Mo is a thing of the past. You have few viable excuses for his Wood defeat other than "he didn't look comfortable" and apparently still believe his Timely Writer win was impressive despite walking through the opening half-mile and beating two horses who were pummeled in graded stakes in their next start.

Really, Uncle Mo at this point and Big Brown 3 years ago couldn't have been more different. One was just developing into something special while the other is trying to find what made him special. I honestly hope we see the same Uncle Mo on Saturday that we did in November at CD. If it means I don't cash any tickets I'll be happy because racing will have a star to follow and a big-mouth owner to grab headlines.

Uncle Mo could have won the Timely Writer by as much as the jockey wanted. My guess is that it was meant to be a workout, which it was, with the expectation of things going well in the Wood, which would be more of a tightener than the Timely Writer.

The Wood, something was definitely wrong in my near sighted eyes. My first inclination was that he hated the track, but who knows, maybe he really was sick.

I hate that they were total sissies with him this year, but it is what it is, and I haven't seen anything to definitively say he has regressed from last year.

freddymo 05-04-2011 03:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie (Post 773757)
Uncle Mo could have won the Timely Writer by as much as the jockey wanted. My guess is that it was meant to be a workout, which it was, with the expectation of things going well in the Wood, which would be more of a tightener than the Timely Writer.

The Wood, something was definitely wrong in my near sighted eyes. My first inclination was that he hated the track, but who knows, maybe he really was sick.

I hate that they were total sissies with him this year, but it is what it is, and I haven't seen anything to definitively say he has regressed from last year.


The colt never made it back to his 2 year old form. Once Pletcher's go backward they never return to form..The juice is a one way street.Shame I wanted hi to be special also

Indian Charlie 05-04-2011 03:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by freddymo (Post 773761)
The colt never made it back to his 2 year old form. Once Pletcher's go backward they never return to form..The juice is a one way street.Shame I wanted hi to be special also

This is a good point.

However, I'm still not sold that the Wood was a regression, based on what I saw.

Dahoss 05-04-2011 03:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie (Post 773757)

I hate that they were total sissies with him this year, but it is what it is, and I haven't seen anything to definitively say he has regressed from last year.

I'm not really sure how you could say that. He hasn't come close to running like he did last year, in either race this year.

Indian Charlie 05-04-2011 04:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dahoss (Post 773765)
I'm not really sure how you could say that. He hasn't come close to running like he did last year, in either race this year.

Yes, this is true, but likewise, circumstances dictated that he wasn't given the chance.

His first start back was a complete joke of a race, yet he still did manage to run a pretty dynamic last portion of the race, which tells me he probably had not regressed.

The Wood, that's a toss.


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