I'll admit at the end that I was a little disapointed that she didn't get up, even though it would have cost me money. It would have been so much easier if she didn't lift a hoof, which it looked like very early. But she came from the absolute clouds and ran a tremendous race.
It does amaze me that in the 19 prior races, Mike Smith came up the rail once to win and in what might have been her most important race he thought about doing it again (and mind you it was dead). She was just as good as Blame today, but I really believe that Smith just gave her too much to do against a very good horse who got a pretty good trip himself. She really deserved to win that race today.

Anyone know if the Tarheels won today?

The track at Churchill slows down by around a second every day over the course of the day. If the Classic goes at the same time as the Juvenille (the Juvenille was not running at the beginning of the day but more in the middle of the day), I think the race goes in the 2:01 2/5- 2:01 4/5 range.

I know that you disagree with that, but making that assumption what would that do to the Beyers? Uncle Mo obviously ran huge today. He ran a 102 when he broke his maiden. I'd probably give him a 105 or so and I'd probably give Blame a 111 or so.

That's not really how it works.

How did First Dude hold on so realtively well? He crushed Haynesfield and QR by 12 lengths and 18 lengths respectively and he was going faster than either one of them.

How does it work? Please enlighten me.

With a perfect trip, she obviously wins the race. But when you are a dead-last come-from-behinder, you're not going to always get a perefct trip in a 12 horse field. That's the big disadvantage of having that type of running style.

What evidence do you have that the track was slowing down? It has been open for what? Three days before this? Are you basing this on what was going on months ago before the extreme drought? I guess we'll just assume every horse ran their top and work it out that way. . . It's obviously going to be a tough fig to make, and one that won't really tell us anything.

First Dude doesn't throw in the towell when beaten ...go back and watch the Florida Derby when he was 5th or 6th behind Ice Box and Pleasant Prince in a similar pace collapse.

When speed horses get baked - most of them will stop. First Dude didn't.

Dale Romans came out and said before the race that he wanted First Dude 4th early about 2 or 3 lengths off of the pace .. basically relaxing while wide and rating off of the speed ... the same kind of trip Unrivaled Belle had in the Distaff yesterday.

As it turned out - First Dude was in a crazed kind of mood - and he went out and ran his guts out the whole way ... he had no intentions of settling or quitting .. he ran a very unprofessional race .. which is maybe why he's the most decorated horse ever to still have their N1X alw condition.

If First Dude runs in an N1X next time out - he'll be the biggest standout ever on paper...and even he couldn't get himself beat against N1X's

But my point about Mike Smith is that he has never been shy about going wide with her. Granted, he's not going against 12 horse fields most of the time. But in this case, I really feel this one time he tried to save some ground with her it might have cost her the race. Also because it seemed like the middle of the track was the place to be.

[quote=The Indomitable DrugS;718374]First Dude doesn't throw in the towell when beaten ...go back and watch the Florida Derby when he was 5th or 6th behind Ice Box and Pleasant Prince in a similar pace collapse.

When speed horses get baked - most of them will stop. First Dude didn't.

Dale Romans came out and said before the race that he wanted First Dude 4th early about 2 or 3 lengths off of the pace .. basically relaxing while wide and rating off of the speed ... the same kind of trip Unrivaled Belle had in the Distaff yesterday.

As it turned out - First Dude was in a crazed kind of mood - and he went out and ran his guts out the whole way ... he had no intentions of settling or quitting .. he ran a very unprofessional race .. which is maybe why he's the most decorated horse ever to still have their N1X alw condition.

I know if he was mine I would bring him back in a N1X at Gulfstream... Get that confidence going.

That is a ridiculous argument. QR and Haynesfield could not keep up with First Dude. It would be one thing if QR and Haynesfield caught First Dude but then gave up when the come-from-behinders blew by. That wasn't what happened. QR and Haynefield could not keep up with First Dude. They didn't have it today.

What if there were no come-from behinders in this race? If this was only a 4 horse field with QR, Haynesfield, First Dude, and Espoir City and the race unfolded the same way, what would have happened? The same thing would have happened. Then you couldn't have afgued that the pace was too fast because First Dude would have gone wire-to-wire.

And QR doesn't usually quit when he gets beat. He's gotten beat plenty of times in the past and he always hit the board.

I didn't mind where Smith had her early. I also didn't mind when he 'panicked' and ask her to close the gap on the end of the pack on the backstretch. Especially since he put her in a nice, inside drafting position. But having to wait slightly for a horse to go by when they entered the stretch and then go around it, cost her the race. I realize Blame is game and I realize that he had the lead for a long time. However, as she 'pushes the biggest gear' in the race, Smith needs to get her outside of horses and make a sustained run. Saving ground, having to wait and go inside out, is not exactly the way the best finisher in the race is supposed to be ridden. I've read where there's almost a consensus that her ride didn't cost her the race. And, it's not about getting a perfect INSIDE stretch run. She's doesn't need that. Having to wait and not getting outside till late is just not a good trip for her. This is why, in track cycling, for example, those able to spinner the higher gears faster don't **** around with trying to save ground the final turn or straight, they take the outside route and spin it home. Hard to believe that Smith either doesn't get this or is just unable to put it into practice --- especially with all her previous wide trips.

He would have had to go 5 wide all the way around the turn and I don't think he could have won today doing that.

What will you rub in? That she only won one BC Classic and missed a 2nd by less than a head? Wow, that smarts. You'll be showing them she's no better than Cigar and Alysheba.

I thought she ran a fantastic race and showed that she belonged with the best horses of her generation. For the 2nd year in a row, I vastly underestimated how good she is.

Could she have had a vastly more interesting campaign this year? Of course she could have. But I'm glad as hell they didn't retire her last year, like 95% of owners would have, if just for this one race.

--Dunbar

It wasn't a 4 horse field - it was a 10 furlong horse race in which the riders of QR and Haynesfield had to be more concerned with the horses behind them instead of the ones in front of them.

This happens frequently in pace collapses.

One of my trainers at Churchill mentioned it to me when we ran a horse at Churchill in June on a Friday night. And so far this meet, it has looked the same way. On opening day (last Sunday), I think the track slowed down quite a bit over the course of the day. Some really good 2 year olds (allowance horses with stakes potential) ran 6 1/2 furlongs in 1:19 late in the day and the final race of the day (a 2 year old MSW) went in 1:13 2/5. Earlier in the day, the MSWs were running much faster.

That doesn't happen frequently. If it did, you would constantly see horses getting beat by 20 lengths and then come back a month later and win their next start. That does happen occasionally but it's pretty rare.

If this would have been a normal "pace collapse" race, QR and Haynesfield would have put away FD on the turn and taken the lead turning for home and then collapsed somehwere around the 1/8 pole or later.

If QR ran his best race, he could go :45 and change at this distance and he would still last past the 1/4 pole. He may come to a walk after that but he wouldn't be throwing in the towel at the 3/8 pole.

The figs are out.

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