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-   -   Zenyatta v. Rail Trip?? (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=35997)

10 pnt move up 05-09-2010 06:10 PM

I assume its already been stated publicly that they have no interest in running in the Vanity to get the 17th win and then running four weeks later in the Gold Cup? I don't see why that would be such a stretch, in fact it makes a lot of sense. Then they could take off two months and return at Oak Tree and start in the BC.

CSC 05-09-2010 06:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by parsixfarms (Post 645443)
Actually, as Cardus points out, there is more to racing than the Breeders' Cup, and who's to say that she'll even make it to that race six months from now.

We all know that she'll probably only have, at most, four lifetime starts. And I think it's a pretty safe bet to say that, if she's racing in the fall, the final two starts of her career would likely be the the race formerly known as the Lady's Secret and the BC Classic. (And for the reason TFM noted above, I'd have no problem with the Lady's Secret, knowing it was a prep for the Classic.) There is absolutely no excuse for her not to run in the Hollywood Gold Cup, unless the mid-season portion of her campaign is simply about ducking meaningful competition until the Breeders' Cup.

I hear what you are saying; however what she is doing is no different to what other race horses are doing these days. I am actually more dissapointed on her passing the Stephen Foster where this would have been a true test for her rather than facing Rail Trip on cushion. Let's wait to see what the connections have in store for her the rest of the yr before jumping the gun on the critical dept, it is her first race back since running in the Apple Blossom, if she faces a similar fields this year I may join you in being critical of her campaign, it's a long year and atleast there has already been one major difference in her campaign this year, she shipped out east. You can't fault her if no one wanted to face her, that was out of her control, all things considered she will ship out east atleast twice this year and run on dirt twice this year, anything more is pure gravy the way I see it.

Smooth Operator 05-09-2010 06:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by stonegossard (Post 645592)
Why would 2010 HOY Rachel Alexandra want to go run on a different surface than the BC in a meaningless race at a meaningless track.

Oh I don't know … maybe cuz she's lost a TON of street cred … and beating an UNDEFEATED DUAL BC CHAMPION at her home track would go a LONG way in restoring her tarnished reputation.


Quote:

I am sure the connections will run her at a real track like Belmont or Saratoga.
And she'll probably get beat there too...

miraja2 05-09-2010 06:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cmorioles (Post 645616)
The other horses aren't going to chase her to California because of the silly surface they are running on. Like it or not, no other big time racing outside of Keeneland's few weeks each year run on the stuff, and we all know they do it because they sell the stuff.

I understand your point, but I think you do have to give them some credit for their trip to Oaklawn this year. Hopefully she does run in the HGC following her next race, and then comes East to run in a big race. I'd love to see it, and if she does run on dirt against a really good dirt horse, I'll almost certainly be betting against her.
My point was simply that I can't really blame them for wanting to run in Cali for awhile, but IF they stay in Cali but choose not to go in the HGC, that's pretty weak.

10 pnt move up 05-09-2010 06:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by miraja2 (Post 645623)
I understand your point, but I think you do have to give them some credit for their trip to Oaklawn this year. Hopefully she does run in the HGC following her next race, and then comes East to run in a big race. I'd love to see it, and if she does run on dirt against a really good dirt horse, I'll almost certainly be betting against her.
My point was simply that I can't really blame them for wanting to run in Cali for awhile, but if they stay in Cali but choose not to go in the HGC, that's pretty weak.

Who are the really good 1 1/8th or beyond horses, the only one with any real ability is slated to run four times this year in Quality Road, who else?

NTamm1215 05-09-2010 06:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up (Post 645624)
Who are the really good 1 1/8th or beyond horses, the only one with any real ability is slated to run four times this year in Quality Road, who else?

He's only slated to run in the Met Mile and the BC Classic?

He'll be in at least two of the following four preparing for the BCC: Suburban, Whitney, Woodward, Jockey Club Gold Cup.

NT

the_fat_man 05-09-2010 06:40 PM

We're facing the very real possibility here that Z will go undefeated. There's really nothing that can beat her on synthetics (on the west coast) in a fairly run race, and, unless the male older dirt division finds a new star, that can go 10F, she'll dust anything out there presently in the BC. I mean, Rail Trip could hook her in a very small field and control the pace and somehow beat her. It's possible, what with his new jock and all. It's doubtful, however, that even if Pletcher were to go over the border and get some of that even more special Jordan elixir for QR, that he'd get 10F out of him on a non speed favoring track.
And, I don't see how RA makes it back in the picture at the moment.

It's slowly and steadily becoming a reality for her detractors that she just might prove them all wrong. Imagine that so many who have otherwise very strong opinions could be so wrong about this horse. Imagine 20 years from now DrugS Jr. is on some forum comparing horses historically using Beyers: what does he do with her? :zz:

Or Mike the EUNUCH going to his grave muttering: "she never ran FAST, so she was never any good. RA was better.":rolleyes:

All of this is deliciously wicked.

CSC 05-09-2010 06:48 PM

All she has to do is face a horse this year that beyers 119 in a race so that she can beyer 120 to make Drugs happy, maybe he will even admit he was wrong. We are still waiting on his explanation of what went wrong with Rachel here on DT. That should be illuminating...

10 pnt move up 05-09-2010 06:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NTamm1215 (Post 645626)
He's only slated to run in the Met Mile and the BC Classic?

He'll be in at least two of the following four preparing for the BCC: Suburban, Whitney, Woodward, Jockey Club Gold Cup.

NT

ok, 5 races then....answer the question, who is this horse I am waiting to bet on as I asked? Cause I dont see much of anything that can run long on dirt.

NTamm1215 05-09-2010 06:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up (Post 645631)
ok, 5 races then....answer the question, who is this horse I am waiting to bet on as I asked? Cause I dont see much of anything that can run long on dirt.

Wait until some of the real handicap races start being run.

NT

the_fat_man 05-09-2010 06:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CSC (Post 645630)
All she has to do is face a horse this year that beyers 119 in a race so that she can beyer 120 to make Drugs happy, maybe he will even admit he was wrong. We are still waiting on his explanation of what went wrong with Rachel here on DT. That should be illuminating...

Something went wrong with RA? She's still running > 100 Beyers, isn't she? Which means she still FASTER than Z (and thus better).

I don't know what you're talking about, Willis. :rolleyes:

miraja2 05-09-2010 06:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up (Post 645624)
Who are the really good 1 1/8th or beyond horses, the only one with any real ability is slated to run four times this year in Quality Road, who else?

There sure aren't very many, you're right about that.
Right now I would almost certainly bet on Quality Road and Rachel Alexandra in a dirt race against Zenyatta. Beyond that? Who knows. The 3yo crop sure doesn't look like much, but it is always possible that somebody in the crop (Ice Box? Super Saver? somebody else?) continues to improve and therefore turns into a legitimate 9f+ horse.

blackthroatedwind 05-09-2010 06:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up (Post 645631)
ok, 5 races then....answer the question, who is this horse I am waiting to bet on as I asked? Cause I dont see much of anything that can run long on dirt.

I thought we've been through this....Quality Road has run twice this year ( the Hal's Hope and Donn ) and will run at least four more times this year ( Met, Whitney, Woodward and/or JCGC, and BC Classic ) assuming he stays sound. No, nobody is saying that is an abundance of races...but stop trying to make Zenyatta look less bad;)

RolloTomasi 05-09-2010 06:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up (Post 645631)
ok, 5 races then....answer the question, who is this horse I am waiting to bet on as I asked? Cause I dont see much of anything that can run long on dirt.

What's wrong with Quality Road at 9f?

CSC 05-09-2010 07:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi (Post 645638)
What's wrong with Quality Road at 9f?

The way Pletcher's horses are running, nothing. The question is can he keep it up the rest of the year?

10 pnt move up 05-09-2010 07:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi (Post 645638)
What's wrong with Quality Road at 9f?

He is the only one I see that has run on dirt with real ability, and that includes super saver. I could be wrong about that horse but I think he got lucky to get 10 furlongs last week.

10 pnt move up 05-09-2010 07:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind (Post 645636)
I thought we've been through this....Quality Road has run twice this year ( the Hal's Hope and Donn ) and will run at least four more times this year ( Met, Whitney, Woodward and/or JCGC, and BC Classic ) assuming he stays sound. No, nobody is saying that is an abundance of races...but stop trying to make Zenyatta look less bad;)

We know your position, she sucks;)

Smooth Operator 05-09-2010 07:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the_fat_man (Post 645627)
Imagine 20 years from now DrugS Jr. is on some forum comparing horses historically using Beyers: what does he do with her? :zz:

Lol … too funny



Must be boatloads of RA lovers out there who want to see Z slip up SOOOOOOOOO bad


I'm enjoying this TO THE FULL. :D

stonegossard 05-09-2010 08:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Smooth Operator (Post 645620)
Oh I don't know … maybe cuz she's lost a TON of street cred … and beating an UNDEFEATED DUAL BC CHAMPION at her home track would go a LONG way in restoring her tarnished reputation.




And she'll probably get beat there too...



Like others have stated, most owners have zero interested in running on a joke of a surface at HP. Zenyatta has proven she loves synthetic 14 times.....yay. She is a great synthetic horse. Running a 15th time in The Vanity is borderline ridiculous and weak. If she was to retire now she will go down in history as a horse who was very good on a surface a majority of the good horses don't take to. How many turf horses does the world really remember? Not many. That's where her legacy is heading.

As far as RA vs Rachel? Obviously RA isn't the same horse she was when she had her historic campaign to win HOY in 2009. So far in 2010 Zenyatta is the better horse. She has won two races she was supposed to win...unlike RA. RA's reputation is far from tarnished....that's pretty hilarious to say as she ran two good races and got beat at the end.

Hopefully The Moss's just run one more pretend race in So-Cal and head out to Saratoga this summer. If she were to at least run somewhere else myself and others would have a lot more respect for her (even if she loses). Run on the same surface as the BC. Do something DIFFERENT.....otherwise running at Hol and Dmr this summer will be more of the same old boring campaign which cost her HOY last year.

knickslions2 05-09-2010 08:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by miraja2 (Post 645635)
There sure aren't very many, you're right about that.
Right now I would almost certainly bet on Quality Road and Rachel Alexandra in a dirt race against Zenyatta. Beyond that? Who knows. The 3yo crop sure doesn't look like much, but it is always possible that somebody in the crop (Ice Box? Super Saver? somebody else?) continues to improve and therefore turns into a legitimate 9f+ horse.

Rachel is toast. Her last race last year cooked her. Can't believe people doubt a horse that has never lost. Don't care if she was running on glass. QR would be a good race but we may never see it


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