| ateamstupid |
03-04-2010 06:19 PM |
3/4 update:
Quote:
Yes, the bubble's shrinking, folks, but a lot more teams are playing themselves out than in. Certain teams with bad losses, losing streaks and low RPI profiles are still alive because of other viable candidates tripping over themselves. Here's the final pre-Championship Week take on who'll be occupying the 34 at-large spots. As usual the number in parentheses is the projected no. of bids, assuming no outlying AQs. Conferences are listed in order of RPI rank, projected multi-bid conferences only listed.
UPDATE: I can't figure out why for the life of me, but my RPI numbers from this post were slightly screwed up at first publish. I've fixed them.
Big XII (7)
LOCKS: Kansas, Kansas State, Texas A&M, Baylor, Missouri, Texas, Oklahoma State
WORK TO DO: Nobody
Bless you, Big XII. We can chalk up those six at-larges and move on. Less typing for me.
Big East (8)
LOCKS: Syracuse, Villanova, West Virginia, Pittsburgh, Georgetown, Marquette
WORK TO DO: Notre Dame (RPI: 61), Louisville (36), Connecticut (49), Seton Hall (63)
For all the annual blather of the Big East getting double-digit bids, it looks like a distinct possibility that the superconferece will only get seven this season. The bubble officially bids adieu to Cincinnati and South Florida. Marquette became the sixth Big East team to lock up a bid, throttling Louisville on Tuesday, largely damaging the Cardinals' prospects as well. Notre Dame has won three straight and suddenly looks like the Big East's strongest bubble tenant. The Irish are now 4-3 against the RPI top 50 and 9-7 against the top 100, but they still have some issues to overcome. Namely three losses outside the top 100 and a 3-6 road/neutral record. That's why a win at Marquette on Saturday is the only thing that would lock up a bid for ND before the Big East tourney. Otherwise they're going to need at least one win at MSG, possibly two. Louisville took a big step toward a bid by winning at UConn, but the Cards looked very bad at Marquette on Tuesday. The worst UL can do in conference is 10-8, which is normally good enough in the Big East, but I'm not so sure in this case. Louisville is just 3-7 against the RPI top 50 and 7-9 against the top 100. Obviously the win at Syracuse holds weight, but the Cardinals don't have much else to show. That's why a second win over 'Cuse in the Freedom Hall closer on Saturday would be huge. Despite the lousy record against the elites, two wins over the Orange and 11-7 in league would probably be enough to get the 'ville in. If UL loses Saturday though, it probably needs at least two wins in the Big East tourney to be a serious at-large contender. UConn, seemingly in a week ago, is suddenly in trouble after losses to Louisville and Notre Dame. The Huskies face a must-win game on Saturday at South Florida, which has been reduced to the spoiler role. Without that game, I can't see them getting in without winning the Big East tourney. Even with a win in Tampa, UConn needs at least two wins at The Garden, possibly three, to cancel out an 8-10 league record. The Huskies are 3-8 against the RPI top 50 and 8-11 against the top 100 with two poor losses at Michigan and at Providence. Seton Hall is probably on its way to the NIT after losing a must-win at home to Marquette on Sunday. The Pirates remain in the conversation only because they can still get to .500 in league (at Rutgers, at Providence), but they'll need that, plus a few games in the city to be seriously considered.
ACC (6)
LOCKS: Duke, Maryland, Clemson
WORK TO DO: Florida State (38), Wake Forest (34), Virginia Tech (53), Georgia Tech (37)
The ACC, looking like a shoe-in for seven bids a few weeks ago, may now get as little as five. A sixth is in reach, but the seven ship may have sailed with Wake Forest, Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech all fading down the stretch. Clemson locked up a bid by handling GT at home on Wednesday. Florida State is close to doing the same and probably only needs one more win to become a lock. The Seminoles finish the season at Miami (FL) on Saturday. Wake Forest isn't looking too strong, having lost four straight to fall to 8-7 in conference. The Deacs are still buoyed by a 5-4 record against the RPI top 50, but the committee doesn't like teams that aren't playing well down the stretch, and it's been a while since Wake has beaten anybody of note. With that said, a win at home against Clemson on Sunday probably is still enough to put WF back in, but winning an ACC tournament game in addition would be advisable. Meanwhile, the two Techs square off in Atlanta in a veritable bubble elimination game on Saturday. Obviously both teams could still make the Dance with an ACC tourney run, but the winner of Saturday's game will be able to breathe much easier than the loser heading into Greensboro. A win would give VT a 10-6 league record, which might be enough to offset a cupcake-laden nonconference profile, just two RPI top 50 wins and just six top 100 wins. A loss would be devastating to the Hokies' tournament chances. GT has a slightly better nonconference profile, but needs this game to get to .500 in the ACC. The Yellow Jackets are 4-7 against the RPI top 50 and 8-8 against the top 100, a respectable output. But they're also just 3-8 in road/neutrals, so they'll probably need a game in Greensboro in addition to Saturday's game to feel good.
Big Ten (5)
LOCKS: Purdue, Ohio State, Michigan State, Wisconsin
WORK TO DO: Illinois (72)
Is there another conference with as much separation between the elite and the hoi polloi? The Big Eleven might get four 1-4 seeds and nobody else in the tournament. The bubble says au revoir to Minnesota after an embarrassing 28-point shellacking at the hands of Michigan. I'm more sold on Illinois than most people. I get that the home loss to Minnesota was bad, but the Illini have a huge game against Wisconsin in Champaign on Saturday, and if they can get that, I think they're a lock. They'd have a sweep over Wisconsin and an 11-7 league record. Illinois is 4-7 against the RPI top 50 and 5-9 against the top 100. It has quality nonconference wins at Clemson and vs. Vanderbilt. The Illini must overcome three 101+ losses, but they have a solid 6-7 road/neutral record. Without a win over Wisconsin, things get a little dicey, but UI will face one of the top four in the conference in the Big Ten tourney quarters next Friday, so it'll immediately have another chance for a quality win. Basically I think Illinois would have to lose its next two games to be toast.
SEC (4)
LOCKS: Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Tennessee
WORK TO DO: Florida (52), Mississippi (56)
Florida took a major step back by losing at Georgia and then falling at home to Vandy. Unless Florida can win at Kentucky on Sunday, which would lock up a bid for UF, the Gators will be just 9-7 in conference. Florida is 3-7 against the RPI top 50 and 7-9 against the top 100, and the Gators boast two good nonconference wins at Michigan State and vs. Florida State. UF also has head-to-head wins over both Mississippi and Mississippi State and a strong 7-4 record in road/neutrals. However, because of how the SEC tournament bracket (and the SEC) is structured, without a win at Kentucky, the Gators might need to win three games in the SEC tourney before they can get another quality win. Mississippi State was primed to make another run at the bubble, but a loss at Auburn (the Bulldogs' fifth 101+ loss) last night quashed that. Ole Miss, meanwhile, has snuck back onto the bubble, more because of other teams' slip-ups than due to its own play. The Rebels are clinging to two huge nonconference wins (vs. Kansas State, at UTEP) as their at-large case. They're 2-5 against the RPI top 50, but their pitiful 4-8 mark against the top 100 makes it tough to make a case for them. Mississippi obviously has to win its last two regular season games (vs. LSU, at Arkansas), but if that gets done, the Rebs will have a quick shot at quality wins in the SEC tourney. They'll likely face Tennessee in the quarters (in Nashville) next Friday, and if they get past that, they'll probably get Kentucky. They might need to win both of those to stand a good chance of getting a bid.
Mountain West (3)
LOCKS: New Mexico, BYU
WORK TO DO: UNLV (43), San Diego State (33)
UNLV likely only has to handle MWC doormat Wyoming at home to cinch up a bid. The Runnin' Rebels are 4-4 against the RPI top 50 and 7-4 against the top 100, with a decent nonconference win vs. Louisville and a very good 9-4 record in road/neutrals. They do have to overcome a sweep by Utah, but they're in very good shape. San Diego State needs a run to the MWC tourney final, and even that might not be enough to get the Aztecs in. They're just 2-5 against the RPI top 50 and 3-6 against the top 100 and they have a bad loss at Wyoming to live down.
Atlantic 10 (4)
LOCKS: Temple, Xavier, Richmond
WORK TO DO: Rhode Island (29), Dayton (41), Saint Louis (93)
Charlotte's gone, Saint Louis is on life support, and Dayton and Rhode Island probably have work to do in the A-10 tourney. Sorry A-10 fans, I definitely jinxed this conference by saying it might get six bids. It's still a very good league, especially at the top. Rhode Island jumped back into the conversation by crushing Charlotte last night, but the Rams still haven't played well the last few weeks. They're still in decent shape if they can win at UMass on Saturday, then get a game, maybe two, in the A-10 tourney. URI is only 2-4 against the RPI top 50, but it's 8-6 against the top 100 and the Rams sport a 8-5 road/neutral record. Dayton has a big one at Richmond tonight, and with only a 3-6 record against the RPI top 50, the Flyers could really use a win. They're also only 5-8 against the top 100 with a bad loss (at St. Joseph's) to hurdle. I made the point last week that Dayton was very competitive against a tough nonconference schedule, and that should help UD. If the Flyers lose at Richmond, they'll have to beat Saint Louis and win 2-3 games in the A-10 tourney to have a good shot. Saint Louis lost a near must-win game against Temple last night and the Billikens are now on the outside looking in. SLU stays alive because of three top 50 wins and a 10-5 league record. However, a tough roadie at Dayton on Saturday looms, and if the Bills lose that one, they're toast. A win there and a trip to the A-10 final would probably get SLU in. Anything less would probably leave the Billikens short.
Conference USA (2)
LOCKS: UTEP
WORK TO DO: UAB (42), Memphis (51)
Marshall lost a game it couldn't afford to, at home against UTEP on Tuesday, so it goes bye-bye. Despite a dearth of quality wins, the Miners will be just about impossible to leave out with 14-15 league wins. Memphis got a huge win at UAB last night to complete a season sweep, which hurts the Blazers, badly. UAB is just 1-2 against the RPI top 50 and 5-5 against the top 100 and now faces a must-win game at UTEP on Saturday to remain in the discussion. If Memphis can beat Tulsa at home Saturday, the Tigers will be 13-3 in league, a respectable record. They're 2-5 against the RPI top 50 and 6-5 against the top 100, but they've got three ugly losses (at UMass, at SMU, at Houston) to overcome, so they probably need to get to the C-USA title game, but if they can do that, they'll be in.
Other Conferences
LOCKS: Butler, Gonzaga, Northern Iowa
WORK TO DO: Utah State (32), St. Mary's (45), California (22), Old Dominion (39), VCU (62)
Northern Iowa's done enough to lock up a bid regardless of what happens at Arch Madness. I probably should've had the Panthers in last week, but that loss at Evansville clouded my judgment. I think a win over New Mexico State on Saturday puts Utah State in the tournament regardless of what happens in the WAC tourney. St. Mary's needs a trip to the WCC final and at least a competitive effort against Gonzaga. Doug Gottlieb just said on ESPN that the Pac-10 will get two bids even if Cal wins the conference tourney, and I think he's nuts. Cal is the conference's only at-large hope, and the Bears probably only get in with a trip to the Pac-10 final. I know the RPI is high, he meat just isn't there on their resume, they're 0-4 against the RPI top 50 and 5-6 against the top 100 with three losses outside the top 100. Contrary to what some think, I maintain that Old Dominion needs at least one win in the CAA tournament, maybe two, to lock up a bid. The Monarchs are 1-4 against the RPI top 50 and 7-7 against the top 100. VCU needs a trip to the CAA final, even then an at-large is a longshot, but the Rams stay in the discussion because of a 3-1 record against the RPI top 50 and a 6-4 record against the top 100. However, VCU also has losses at George Mason, Drexel and Western Michigan to distance itself from.
So assuming no outlying AQs (UTEP, Butler, Gonzaga, UNI all win their tourneys), we've got 21 bids all locked up. That leaves a maximum of 13 bids for a bubble contingent that currently numbers 23. If we let the doorstep teams (Florida State, UNLV, Utah State) in, that leaves 10 bids for 20 teams. And we know damn well that there'll be outlying AQs, so that number of 10 will shrink in the next week.
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