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Danzig 05-03-2009 03:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
I don't really think Giacomo and Mine That Bird are similar at all. Mine That Bird should have been at least 500-1. I have yet to see where anyone gave him a chance based on anything he has done on the track. Giacomo had more than a few things going for him and at least had some sort of form. At least a few people fancied his chances. Mine That Bird was impossible to like.

i never said the horses were similar. however, when i read that the fact a 50-1 shot was going to reduce handle, i compared yesterdays race result with giacomos-due to the final odds only.

Danzig 05-03-2009 03:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
I know, you said the situations were similar. I don't really think they were. Giacomo could be bet on form, Mine that Bird could not have.


i'm not saying bet-wise. the thread began with a post saying a horse winning at 50-1 would reduce handle, and had made a mockery of the sport. i disagree, and used giacomo to illustrate that horses have paid the same in years past, yet the sport, and the handle, survived the occurrence. that's all i wanted to illustrate by referring to giacomo.

MISTERGEE 05-03-2009 03:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danzig
i'm not saying bet-wise. the thread began with a post saying a horse winning at 50-1 would reduce handle, and had made a mockery of the sport. i disagree, and used giacomo to illustrate that horses have paid the same in years past, yet the sport, and the handle, survived the occurrence. that's all i wanted to illustrate by referring to giacomo.

I am the one who started the thread and I never mentioned the odds, it has nothing to do with that

Seattleallstar 05-03-2009 07:01 PM

MTB's win both showed the beauty of the sport while at the same time making a mockery of it as well

Gander 05-03-2009 07:09 PM

I was thinking the same thing today about the odds of this Derby and discussing it with a friend. I didnt see many horses on the board yesterday that were actually good win bets. Certainly I would have loved to have my $200 win ticket on the horse who won and collected 10K, but 50/1 was a huge underlay (if there is such a thing at 50/1) on the winner when you think of the fact that Giacomo was much more accomplished and competitive with top horses than Mine the Bird, and yet pretty much the same price. Mine that Bird should have been over 100/1.

The horse I bet was a terrible price at 12/1- Hold me Back. General Quarters and Chocolate Candy were equally if not worse bets at 9/1. Friesan Fires was a huge underlay at 7/2 and so too was Dunkirk at 5/1. Papa Clem was a puzzling 13/1. Desert Party was a decent stab at 14/1. Thats about the only horse I thought was actually a good price.

Riot 05-03-2009 07:15 PM

If Borel had been on Hold Me Back, and gotten the same trip ... ? HMB made the duplicate move MTB did, only it started after the first turn on the backstretch, and therefor lasted only to midway through the second turn.

Gander 05-03-2009 07:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Riot
If Borel had been on Hold Me Back, and gotten the same trip ... ? HMB made the duplicate move MTB did, only it started after the first turn on the backstretch, and therefor lasted only to midway through the second turn.

I didnt like Kent moving like that so soon. Hold me Back is a one run closer. That move reminded me of the Street Sense move and he isnt that kind of horse where he can win a race in the middle. I would have rather have him made that move on the far turn, but Kent knows better than me and probably thought it was his best chance. He wasnt winning that race yesterday. I made a horrible bet in a race that was a horrible betting race.

DaTruth 05-03-2009 07:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gander
I was thinking the same thing today about the odds of this Derby and discussing it with a friend. I didnt see many horses on the board yesterday that were actually good win bets. Certainly I would have loved to have my $200 win ticket on the horse who won and collected 10K, but 50/1 was a huge underlay (if there is such a thing at 50/1) on the winner when you think of the fact that Giacomo was much more accomplished and competitive with top horses than Mine the Bird, and yet pretty much the same price. Mine that Bird should have been over 100/1.

The horse I bet was a terrible price at 12/1- Hold me Back. General Quarters and Chocolate Candy were equally if not worse bets at 9/1. Friesan Fires was a huge underlay at 7/2 and so too was Dunkirk at 5/1. Papa Clem was a puzzling 13/1. Desert Party was a decent stab at 14/1. Thats about the only horse I thought was actually a good price.

Before the days of commingled pools, it was interesting to see the differences in win payoffs, especially among the different regions.

DogsUp 05-03-2009 08:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MISTERGEE
first of all I love horseracing, and I love a good underdog, however I am afraid MTB winning may have made a mockery of the sport and the derby for many.The horse with the slowest of any type of speed figure, with the worst perceived "class", getting his ass beat at Sunland, with a trainer who was 1 for 32 for the year. And not only winning but destroying 18 other of the best of the best available. so poorly looked at breeding and conformation wise that he sold for $9500? Believe me I have owned and raced mostly claiming thoroughbreds for 30 years and I love the idea of this guy beating the heavy head millionaires but I think this will be one of the most single telling events to destroy the handle of racing for years to come.

Wasnt MTB champion 2 year old in Canada?

Danzig 05-03-2009 08:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DogsUp
Wasnt MTB champion 2 year old in Canada?

yep. but this isn't hockey.

Seattleallstar 05-03-2009 10:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DogsUp
Wasnt MTB champion 2 year old in Canada?


2 yr old champion in Canada, who couldnt beat mules in New Mexico

Riot 05-03-2009 10:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Seattleallstar
2 yr old champion in Canada, who couldnt beat mules in New Mexico

Could be he's a horse that only runs well on synthetic/soft, and can't do hard ground.

Could be (from his PP's) he had something wrong with him, and after his time off is now back hitting his stride.

Seattleallstar 05-03-2009 10:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Riot
Could be he's a horse that only runs well on synthetic/soft, and can't do hard ground.

Could be (from his PP's) he had something wrong with him, and after his time off is now back hitting his stride.

Better just to chalk this up to a stupid fluke

The Indomitable DrugS 05-03-2009 10:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Riot
Could be he's a horse that only runs well on synthetic/soft, and can't do hard ground.

Could be (from his PP's) he had something wrong with him, and after his time off is now back hitting his stride.


Nevermind how slow his Candian wins were - the horses he beat in those races stink.

Riot 05-03-2009 10:49 PM

Exactly. We'll see. Right now I'm going with, "This was your two minutes of fame, kid, enjoy"

GenuineRisk 05-05-2009 07:55 PM

Sports Illustrated put Mine That Bird's Derby victory on the cover this week. I think this is the first time since Smarty Jones that horse racing has been the cover sport. And a lot of my non-racing fan friends have been talking about it- hell, the bartender at the wine bar I was at last night mentioned the $9500 price tag thing (not exactly accurate, but he knew it). For whatever reason, Mine That Bird has people aware racing is going on and seeing it in a positive light. That's a good thing, any way you look at it.

Danzig 05-05-2009 08:03 PM

one person at work mentioned the race. everyone else is asking me about hockey.

Cannon Shell 05-05-2009 08:21 PM

I thought only implausible things happened on polytrack?

Dunbar 05-06-2009 03:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaTruth
Before the days of commingled pools, it was interesting to see the differences in win payoffs, especially among the different regions.

Yes, I was sorry to see that edge go away. There were some instances when you could have gotten a guaranteed win by betting all the entries, by choosing the best odds among Cal, NY and KY. The Cal horse would inevitably be bet down in Cal, boosting the odds of the East Coast horses, and the East Coast horses would be bet down in NY and KY, boosting the price on the Cal horse(s).

--Dunbar


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