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-   -   Dunkirk -- 2 Questions (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=28979)

Danzig 04-12-2009 11:28 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Travis Stone
I'm not picking Dunkirk to win I don't think, but Big Brown was just as lightly raced last year was he not? The argument you're making is fine, however, it's too broad to apply to all horses. And simply put, it's a rigorous test for all horses.
big brown also won the fla derby. :D i just think, all things considered, dunkirk has too much going against him to be a derby pick. i'm not suggesting he isn't a nice horse, or that he will never win again....i'm thinking only in the context of who has what it takes come may.

NTamm1215 04-12-2009 11:30 AM
There's a big difference between Dunkirk and Big Brown. The importance of BB making a start at 2 cannot be over-stated.

You also can't forget the caliber of competition Big Brown faced vs. what's in store for Dunkirk.

NT

Travis Stone 04-12-2009 11:34 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by NTamm1215
You also can't forget the caliber of competition Big Brown faced vs. what's in store for Dunkirk.
Wait, so this year's crop is better?!

Danzig 04-12-2009 11:35 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Travis Stone
Wait, so this year's crop is better?!

i think so. i thought last years was pretty bad.

Travis Stone 04-12-2009 11:37 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Danzig
big brown also won the fla derby.
Dunkirk ran second!! I don't get it. You're hellbent on Dunkirk not being in the race but this the Kentucky Stinkin' Derby. If you owned even just the horseshoe on his right-front hoof and you crossed the wire second to one of the favorites with a good run you'd go too.

There is a long, massive list of horses who should not have run in the Kentucky Derby. But, it's the Kentucky Derby. So whether or not Dunkirk is healthy enough to compete down the road is a moot point. They're going. So, the question should now be whether or not he's capable of making up the deficit to QR and the others not just a long list of reasons why he shouldn't go.

Danzig 04-12-2009 11:47 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Travis Stone
Dunkirk ran second!! I don't get it. You're hellbent on Dunkirk not being in the race but this the Kentucky Stinkin' Derby. If you owned even just the horseshoe on his right-front hoof and you grossed the wire second to one of the favorites with a good run you'd go too.

There is a long, massive list of horses who should not have run in the Kentucky Derby. But, it's the Kentucky Derby. So whether or not Dunkirk is healthy enough to compete down the road is a moot point. They're going. So, the question should now be whether or not he's capable of making up the deficit to QR and the others not just a long list of reasons why he shouldn't go.
yes, i know he did. but i don't think comparing big brown to dunkirk is relevant anyway. the horse has three lifetime starts, with nary a stakes win to his credit. i've said why i'm not picking him to win. and no, i don't think he can make up the difference-he hasn't even won a stakes as yet. if he wasn't trained by pletcher, and hadn't been bought for over 3 million by tabor et al, most would be laughing that he's even under consideration for the race. the fact that he's fashionably bred and fetched a large some doesn't suddenly make him derby material. if it did, the green monkey would have won by daylight a couple years back.

Sightseek 04-12-2009 11:51 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Danzig
yes, i know he did. but i don't think comparing big brown to dunkirk is relevant anyway. the horse has three lifetime starts, with nary a stakes win to his credit. i've said why i'm not picking him to win. and no, i don't think he can make up the difference-he hasn't even won a stakes as yet. if he wasn't trained by pletcher, and hadn't been bought for over 3 million by tabor et al, most would be laughing that he's even under consideration for the race. the fact that he's fashionably bred and fetched a large some doesn't suddenly make him derby material. if it did, the green monkey would have won by daylight a couple years back.
What? I think most here can recognize that he is a talented horse and should be considered for the Derby even if he was sold for $5 and was trained by Jamie Sanders.

Travis Stone 04-12-2009 11:53 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Danzig
if he wasn't trained by pletcher, and hadn't been bought for over 3 million by tabor et al, most would be laughing that he's even under consideration for the race.
I actually think this is why there's so much hate for him. If this were Larry Jones, or almost anyone else, we'd be really excited and would say, "If there's one trainer who can get a horse like this ready, it's him!"

The bottom line is this: He ran second to Quality Road, Quality Road is one of the best horses out there, which should, by default, make Dunkirk better than a lot of horses out there. So, because it's the biggest race, he deserves a chance to run.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not picking him, in fact, I think he's probably a bet against, especially with the pace.

FWIW, the comparison to Big Brown was merely on the lightly-raced angle... not in their abilities.

Danzig 04-12-2009 11:55 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sightseek
What? I think most here can recognize that he is a talented horse and should be considered for the Derby even if he was sold for $5 and was trained by Jamie Sanders.
i respectfully disagree.

allow me to expand on this. people might recognize his talent, but he wouldn't get the threads and press if he was a $5 purchase trained by sanders who had yet to win a stakes with only three starts prior to ky.

Danzig 04-12-2009 11:58 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Travis Stone
I actually think this is why there's so much hate for him. If this were Larry Jones, or almost anyone else, we'd be really excited and would say, "If there's one trainer who can get a horse like this ready, it's him!"

The bottom line is this: He ran second to Quality Road, Quality Road is one of the best horses out there, which should, by default, make Dunkirk better than a lot of horses out there. So, because it's the biggest race, he deserves a chance to run.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not picking him, in fact, I think he's probably a bet against, especially with the pace.

FWIW, the comparison to Big Brown was merely on the lightly-raced angle... not in their abilities.
you'll have to trust me when i say i would be just as turned off regardless of who trained him. and i've said on here that i don't think FF is the one to go with either, so that ought to give me some back up.
summer bird hit the board behind old fashioned and papa clem yesterday. i've seen one person mention he might be worth another look- i just don't think placement in fla means he's second best out there. or even third, fourth, fifth, etc.

lol
we both seem to have the same feeling regarding dunkirks chances in the derby...

are you leaning any certain way on who you think will handle everything in a few weeks?

Danzig 04-12-2009 11:59 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer
watch the florida derby

i did.

The Indomitable DrugS 04-12-2009 12:00 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sightseek
What? I think most here can recognize that he is a talented horse and should be considered for the Derby even if he was sold for $5 and was trained by Jamie Sanders.
I agree.

But still - $5 can't even get you a lap dance from KYRIM anymore.

Sightseek 04-12-2009 12:01 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
I agree.

But still - $5 can't even get you a lap dance from KYRIM anymore.
You'd know. :p

brianwspencer 04-12-2009 12:03 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sightseek
What? I think most here can recognize that he is a talented horse and should be considered for the Derby even if he was sold for $5 and was trained by Jamie Sanders.
Well if he were trained by Jamie Sanders, he'd have already made 22 starts (and given that he likes to go long, 20 of them would have been at 6 furlongs) so we'd have a much better gauge on him and could dispense with the hypotheticals....

...can't win 'em all I guess.

Dunbar 04-12-2009 12:15 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pedigree Ann
Gato del Sol did. Skipped it because he needed more distance, then the Belmont came up sloppy and Conquistador Cielo skipped along on the lead (Gato was second).
Spend a Buck did it 3 years later (1985) because of the big bonus offered by another track. I think that led to purse increases for each of the TC races.

--Dunbar

Dunbar 04-12-2009 12:33 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Travis Stone
Originally I thought 8-1 would not be possible on Dunkirk due to the sheer lack of percentage points to go around. But, looking below, I think it is a pretty fair line:



The above adds-up to 130.8% which is close enough in my opinion. Obviously there are things yet to happen -- Square Eddie for example in the Lexington -- but I assumed he won with this line and I took out Theregoesjojo and Charitable Man and went down Steve's earnings list.

I made Desert Party 12-1 because a lot of public handicappers are picking him, and I think a lot of wise guy 'cappers will as well. I think he has a good shot this year, and felt that was fair.

I think would could happen on this line though is the betting will create a big separation Hold Me Back and Maafaz (who probably doesn't go, but a free $100k is hard to turn down), which will help the top group go down in price.
Here's what TheGreek currently is offering:

I Want Revenge ** 4.65
Dunkirk ** 5.25
Quality Road ** 6.25
Friesan Fire ** 10.15
Pioneer of the Nile ** 10.15
Papa Clem ** 20.50
Desert Party ** 18.15
Terrain ** 25.50
Chocolate Candy ** 18.15
Musket Man ** 25.50
Square Eddie ** 30.50
General Quarters ** 30.50
Regal Ransom ** 30.50
West Side Bernie ** 40.50
Win Willy ** 40.50
Hold Me Back ** 40.50
Mafaaz ** 60.50
Mine That Bird ** 80.50
Charitable Man ** 80.50

That's a 9% line. Dunkirk is probably too low, but the rest of the numbers look like reasonable estimates of what the odds will be. (as you say, excluding possible dramatic changes from the Lexington or because of injury dropouts.)

--Dunbar

Travis Stone 04-12-2009 12:38 PM
I think these are overlays...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dunbar
Desert Party ** 18.15
General Quarters ** 30.50
and these are underlays...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dunbar
Dunkirk ** 5.25
Terrain ** 25.50
Chocolate Candy ** 18.15

the_fat_man 04-12-2009 12:41 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Travis Stone
The bottom line is this: He ran second to Quality Road, Quality Road is one of the best horses out there, which should, by default, make Dunkirk better than a lot of horses out there. So, because it's the biggest race, he deserves a chance to run.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not picking him, in fact, I think he's probably a bet against, especially with the pace.
The bottom line, actually, is that he ran a lot better than QR did given the setup he got. I suspect that QR will probably need to contend with at least one more move in the Derby --- his quota of good setups is over, as is Freisan Fire's. I don't get all the negative comments about this horse. In a fair race, which the Derby will be with a large field, he has a good a shot as any; probably better than most.

Bobby Fischer 04-12-2009 01:04 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by the_fat_man
The bottom line, actually, is that he ran a lot better than QR did given the setup he got. I suspect that QR will probably need to contend with at least one more move in the Derby --- his quota of good setups is over, as is Freisan Fire's. I don't get all the negative comments about this horse. In a fair race, which the Derby will be with a large field, he has a good a shot as any; probably better than most.
Dunkirk's 2nd in the Florida Derby was probably the 2nd best 3yo derby prep at >8.5furlongs on PAPER(to Quality Road).
Arguably the best effort on video when including trip dynamics.
Good enough to easily beat the field Big Brown beat in '08

yet it's a negative

the only thing somewhat bad is that Dunkirk flattened a little in the final 1/16th


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