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dalakhani 10-10-2008 11:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski
I thought today might be it. probably still some puking yet to done.

about the only positive news of the day is overnight LIBOR (the rate at which banks borrow amongst themselves) dropped from 5.09% to 2.6%, indicating some of the short term funding liquidity is returning.

I heard that. Rumor is that the Fed will start guaranteeing commercial paper.

GPK 10-10-2008 11:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav
let me preface the below by saying that I am far from a market guru

The only people that should be selling now are the people that are 2-3 years from retirement. And if I were them I would still ride it out and hopefully get back some of the 50% they have lost. If anyone our age sells they should be shot in the head. If anything, people our age should be getting ready to put every penny they have into this market.

In about 30 years, there will be alot of people that made the decision to dump some cash into the market right around now, and they will be retiring pretty happy because of that very decision.

It is an amazing opportunity for 20-30's to solidify their retirement and make some real money, a year ago we were trying to play into a 15k Dow, and now, we will get to play within a 7k Dow....


Im no financial expert either..but this is what I was thinking too. Since I'm 35, it will be a while before I retire. For the first 8 months of this year, I was dumping 20% into my 401K. I dropped it back to 10% in August...but now I'm thinking of jacking it up back up to 20 maybe even 25%.

Antitrust32 10-10-2008 12:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by timmgirvan
I have heard that once oil hits the 70 dollar proce-point, all hell will break loose on the world front. Anybody have evidence of this?


Why's that? Hasnt it always been lower than 70 until the past couple years?

MaTH716 10-10-2008 12:03 PM

Everyone keeps saying things will turn around. But what is going to happen if the unemployment numbers keep going higher. Banks/financial institutions going out of buisness puts alot of people out of work. Then there is the trickle down effect. These are the people that buy houses/real estate. That affects everyone in the consturction industry, which affects machinery and so on. Not to mention who will be buying the cars or going on vacation? Even going out to dinner is a stretch at this point. These industries will be affected in a big way. Many people will lose their jobs. Plus, the job market is tough now, what is going to happen when all these people who thought they were going to retire still have to work? It is a very bad situation we are in now, to say the least.
More important is where is this tax revenue that funds so many things in this country going to come from/be made up? Many programs woud be affected severly.
I know everyone wants to try to look on the bright side. Sure there is probably money to be made in the very long term. But to me everything looks extremley bleak at the moment.

ShadowRoll 10-10-2008 12:15 PM

I was going to buy 100 shares of Sirius XM this morning...but I decided to super size my value meal instead.

timmgirvan 10-10-2008 12:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Antitrust32
Why's that? Hasnt it always been lower than 70 until the past couple years?

Not sure about that....understood it had to do with levels set by OPEC

Antitrust32 10-10-2008 12:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by timmgirvan
Not sure about that....understood it had to do with levels set by OPEC


http://www.wtrg.com/prices.htm

Basically it wasnt till last year or '06 that it ever went above $70. Was close to 70 though for the Iran/Iraq war in the early 80's. It was $20something during the beginning of this decade.

timmgirvan 10-10-2008 12:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Antitrust32
http://www.wtrg.com/prices.htm

Basically it wasnt till last year or '06 that it ever went above $70. Was close to 70 though for the Iran/Iraq war in the early 80's. It was $20something during the beginning of this decade.

Very thorough and interesting article! It appears as though consumers are again held hostage over gas prices....however the rest of the world pays much more(I don't think they drive as much)

dalakhani 10-10-2008 01:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GPK
Im no financial expert either..but this is what I was thinking too. Since I'm 35, it will be a while before I retire. For the first 8 months of this year, I was dumping 20% into my 401K. I dropped it back to 10% in August...but now I'm thinking of jacking it up back up to 20 maybe even 25%.

Okay. I hear you. Do you realize that if you did this a week ago you would probably looking at about a 25% loss right now? And everyone was calling it a bottom THEN.

For there to be a bottom, you need capitulation. You need to scrape the abyss and there needs to be some type of resolution to get us out of there.

You are a good guy GPK. I dont know you but i can tell you are. Believe me when I tell you that there are more dominoes to fall.

Remember that this isnt a typical market. This is an unwinding of not only a speculative housing bubble but a 25 year credit bubble. Lots of parties that we are paying for.

dalakhani 10-10-2008 01:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by timmgirvan
Very thorough and interesting article! It appears as though consumers are again held hostage over gas prices....however the rest of the world pays much more(I don't think they drive as much)

Timmi i love you. You make this site infinitely more entertaining for me.

Thank you sincerely.:{>:

GPK 10-10-2008 01:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dalakhani
Okay. I hear you. Do you realize that if you did this a week ago you would probably looking at about a 25% loss right now? And everyone was calling it a bottom THEN.

For there to be a bottom, you need capitulation. You need to scrape the abyss and there needs to be some type of resolution to get us out of there.

You are a good guy GPK. I dont know you but i can tell you are. Believe me when I tell you that there are more dominoes to fall.

Remember that this isnt a typical market. This is an unwinding of not only a speculative housing bubble but a 25 year credit bubble. Lots of parties that we are paying for.


Thats why I am unsure when to bump it back up. :zz: :zz:

Thanks for the advice....and I guess I should be happy I dropped back to 10% back in August

GPK 10-10-2008 01:13 PM

And Scavs may tell you different...but I like to think Im a good guy:tro:

dalakhani 10-10-2008 01:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GPK
Thats why I am unsure when to bump it back up. :zz: :zz:

Thanks for the advice.


I am certainly no guru and there are a few on here that have forgotten more than i know.

What I do know something about are contingent liabilities and sweetheart those are worse in some ways than the actual losses.

geeker2 10-10-2008 01:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dalakhani
Okay. I hear you. Do you realize that if you did this a week ago you would probably looking at about a 25% loss right now? And everyone was calling it a bottom THEN.

For there to be a bottom, you need capitulation. You need to scrape the abyss and there needs to be some type of resolution to get us out of there.

You are a good guy GPK. I dont know you but i can tell you are. Believe me when I tell you that there are more dominoes to fall.

Remember that this isnt a typical market. This is an unwinding of not only a speculative housing bubble but a 25 year credit bubble. Lots of parties that we are paying for.


Kev if you hear this from someone you are on a first date with - plan on pulling your own pud later :D

GPK 10-10-2008 01:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by geeker2
Kev if you hear this from someone you are on a first date with - plan on pulling your own pud later :D

:eek:

geeker2 10-10-2008 01:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GPK
:eek:

:p ;) :p

MaTH716 10-10-2008 01:48 PM

Think of it this way. Would you bet on a baseball team that has lost 20 games in a row? Why bet into a streak? It's the same thig with the market. Dropping like a stone with no end in site. Wait for a sustained turn around and then slowly get on board. It might not be the bottom, but you will still get good value on big time names.

Coach Pants 10-10-2008 01:49 PM

Fixed annuities are going to be extremely popular in the short-term.

dalakhani 10-10-2008 02:38 PM

okay, the market just rallied about 800 points in a half hour.

dalakhani 10-10-2008 02:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dalakhani
okay, the market just rallied about 800 points in a half hour.

Okay, in the last five minutes it just dropped over 300 points.


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