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-   -   Beyer still not sold on Big Brown (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=22562)

freddymo 05-18-2008 09:01 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
Sheet figures are different from other final time figs because they take wind, weight and ground loss into account.

All the horses in the Derby carried 126lbs - the winners of the other route races carried between 113lbs - to -117lbs. That is reason #1 why Big Brown's figure will come back faster on a sheet style figure.

There was a strong reported stretch head-wind, backstretch tailwind on Derby day - and the 10 furlong Derby was the one race that day that featured the highest proportion of horses racing into the wind versus racing with the wind at their back. That is reason #2 why BB's fig comes back faster on a sheet style scale.

Finally ground loss - BB was hung wide on both turns in the Derby. Reason #3 why it comes back faster on a sheet style fig.

I'm not sure what kind of Ragozin BB got - but I'm sure it also came back more impressive than any non sheet style number had his race.

I think BB's Beyer was souped up a few points because of wind - and it could have been slower. However, on a sheet style figure, BB's race has to come back very fast.

The wind was very real I was there it was blowing like emily

Danzig 05-18-2008 09:02 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ceejay
But if he wins the Belmont winning these three races in the five weeks is quite an accomplishment. We've seen better horses fail.....
if

and yeah, it's an accomplishment. but there's no way i'd put this horse on par with many who have won it, or came close but couldn't pull it off for one reason or another.
he's gotta win it first tho.

freddymo 05-18-2008 09:03 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
Sheet figures are different from other final time figs because they take wind, weight and ground loss into account.

All the horses in the Derby carried 126lbs - the winners of the other route races carried between 113lbs - to -117lbs. That is reason #1 why Big Brown's figure will come back faster on a sheet style figure.

There was a strong reported stretch head-wind, backstretch tailwind on Derby day - and the 10 furlong Derby was the one race that day that featured the highest proportion of horses racing into the wind versus racing with the wind at their back. That is reason #2 why BB's fig comes back faster on a sheet style scale.

Finally ground loss - BB was hung wide on both turns in the Derby. Reason #3 why it comes back faster on a sheet style fig.

I'm not sure what kind of Ragozin BB got - but I'm sure it also came back more impressive than any non sheet style number had his race.

I think BB's Beyer was souped up a few points because of wind - and it could have been slower. However, on a sheet style figure, BB's race has to come back very fast.

I think BSF's don't do Big Brown justice..His races have been up against it in a big way even if the talent is VERY sub par.. They are still the best of the 3 year old class!

The Indomitable DrugS 05-18-2008 09:06 PM
Big Jerry Brown = Emily

freddymo 05-18-2008 09:20 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
Big Jerry Brown = Emily
New stable name Emily Dick stables

packerbacker7964 05-18-2008 09:23 PM
If he wins the Belmont He'll never see the starting gate again in his life unless you took a picture of one and showed it to him at the Breeder's Farm.

CSC 05-18-2008 09:37 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
Are you really going to subject us all to 3 weeks of this? We get it, you like Casino Drive.
While I will preface this with Casino Drive did show some promise in the PP. He has "wiseguy" tatooed to him like bees take to honey for the Belmont. I joked he in another thread that he might even go off as the favorite 3 weeks from now, maybe that isn't far off. He's the clear underlay second choice.

blackthroatedwind 05-18-2008 09:42 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by CSC
While I will preface this with Casino Drive did show some promise in the PP. He has "wiseguy" tatooed to him like bees take to honey for the Belmont. I joked he in another thread that he might even go off as the favorite 3 weeks from now, maybe that isn't far off. He's the clear underlay second choice.

Casino Drive is the very antithesis of a " wise guy " horse.

CSC 05-18-2008 09:52 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
Casino Drive is the very antithesis of a " wise guy " horse.
At this point I would be happy if Big Brown just wins the Triple Crown, either way I agree with what you said earlier. It won't mean he's a greater horse if he does it, it just means he is much better than his 3 yr old competition is. I think we will see just how good he is if and when we see him line up against Curlin. I think the blinders will finally be open after we see how he fares against real racehorses.

Danzig 05-18-2008 10:02 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by CSC
At this point I would be happy if Big Brown just wins the Triple Crown, either way I agree with what you said earlier. It won't mean he's a greater horse if he does it, it just means he is much better than his 3 yr old competition is. I think we will see just how good he is if and when we see him line up against Curlin. I think the blinders will finally be open after we see how he fares against real racehorses.

i seriously doubt he faces curlin, or any other horse after the belmont. except mares that is...

CSC 05-18-2008 10:05 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Danzig
i seriously doubt he faces curlin, or any other horse after the belmont. except mares that is...
I think the public would want it, or certainly demand it. I think it would tarnish whatever legacy he wants in the future if he doesn't. Alot has already been made of how mediocre this crop is, the colt atleast deserves a chance to dispel that notion.

ELA 05-18-2008 10:16 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by CSC
I think the public would want it, or certainly demand it. I think it would tarnish whatever legacy he wants in the future if he doesn't. Alot has already been made of how mediocre this crop is, the colt atleast deserves a chance to dispel that notion.
It doesn't really matter what the public wants or demands. That's a debate for another time, but as far as reality, it doesn't matter -- not to the owner or the farm. As far as a legacy, it will only tarnish in the eyes of the public or the fan -- which again doesn't matter and is certainly not a concern of the owners, farm, breeder, etc. If the legacy is in the eye of the beholder -- the important eye is not the fan's, but the breeders, mare owners, people who are candidates to send mares, etc.

If the public continues to expect owners to manage their horses to the public's expectation, then the public will continue to be dissappointed.

Eric

blackthroatedwind 05-18-2008 10:28 PM
If he retires after the Belmont I can only hope his foals end up being as spectacular as the Smarmy Jones's are reported to be.

And, oh yeah, Smarmy was one horse I am actually confident Big Brown could have handled. He would have beaten Afleet Alex as well.

Dynever, however, would have crushed him like a grape.

CSC 05-18-2008 10:53 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ELA
It doesn't really matter what the public wants or demands. That's a debate for another time, but as far as reality, it doesn't matter -- not to the owner or the farm. As far as a legacy, it will only tarnish in the eyes of the public or the fan -- which again doesn't matter and is certainly not a concern of the owners, farm, breeder, etc. If the legacy is in the eye of the beholder -- the important eye is not the fan's, but the breeders, mare owners, people who are candidates to send mares, etc.

If the public continues to expect owners to manage their horses to the public's expectation, then the public will continue to be dissappointed.

Eric
This is a debate for another time...I don't begrudge owners for trying to maximize their investments; however I guess I miss the days of having owners like Allen Paulson. A Sportsman that sold the game, surely if he retired Cigar after the BC in 1995, I doubt many young fans at that time would have gotten into this game, and that is the dilema I believe. There will always be core bettors that play the game but will newspapers and the media continue to pay attention if the game loses more fans. Sorry I kind of said more than I perhaps wanted to...that's another topic all together.

sumitas 05-18-2008 10:57 PM
BB is no Ghostzapper.

http://www.adenastallions.com/stalli...id=Ghostzapper

Danzig 05-18-2008 11:16 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by CSC
I think the public would want it, or certainly demand it. I think it would tarnish whatever legacy he wants in the future if he doesn't. Alot has already been made of how mediocre this crop is, the colt atleast deserves a chance to dispel that notion.
legacy? what legacy? he's already made his legacy as far as ieah is concerned. they wanted 50 million for their newest brainchild, and he's put them a long way towards making it. if he wins the belmont, he will be too valuable to ieah and three chimneys to run again. smarty was mentioned above, we all know what his last race was....
and if big brown loses, he'll still retire-as no one would want to risk a second loss, to curlin or anyone else. have to protect that potential 100k stud fee. i'll be absolutely shocked and amazed if that horse runs again after his race in three weeks. he'll either go out 5-1, or 6-0, but go out he will.

as for the public, unless they can afford a share in big brown, ieah and three chimneys won't care what they think.

ELA 05-18-2008 11:17 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by CSC
This is a debate for another time...I don't begrudge owners for trying to maximize their investments; however I guess I miss the days of having owners like Allen Paulson. A Sportsman that sold the game, surely if he retired Cigar after the BC in 1995, I doubt many young fans at that time would have gotten into this game, and that is the dilema I believe. There will always be core bettors that play the game but will newspapers and the media continue to pay attention if the game loses more fans. Sorry I kind of said more than I perhaps wanted to...that's another topic all together.
I completely understand your point, and I agree. However, I am also very clear on and aware of reality. Rather than debate who is and how a sportsmen would act, what I see is a very quick trigger pulled when an owner "disappoints" the public. It's become the common reaction, however, it also often comes from people who just don't understand the business. I hear people "count other people's money" and talk about a horse who could breed 100 mares at $75k and that's $15m in the first two years at stud. I've read this nonsense more than once.

Another example is James Tafel and Street Sense. As soon as he decided not to run in the Belmont, the gates of criticism burst wide open. In my opinion that was foolishness. Sure, different people have a different definition, but to critcize Tafel and say he's not a sportsmen -- that's BS.

Eric

cmorioles 05-19-2008 05:39 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
Dynever, however, would have crushed him like a grape.
Only if there was another horse in the race that could finish first.

zippyneedsawin 05-19-2008 06:28 AM
Not to beat a dead horse here (sorry for the analogy), but who exactly has Casino Drive beaten that we're supposed to be impressed with (as compared to Big Brown)? A bunch of Japanese-bred maidens and a weak Peter Pan field consisting of Mint Lane, Ready's Echo, Golden Spikes, Cosmic, Spark Candle, Tomcito, Deputyville and Fast Talking. I'd say CD is making a big class jump in the Belmont.

MLC 05-19-2008 06:32 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by zippyneedsawin
Not to beat a dead horse here (sorry for the analogy), but who exactly has Casino Drive beaten that we're supposed to be impressed with (as compared to Big Brown)? A bunch of Japanese-bred maidens and a weak Peter Pan field consisting of Mint Lane, Ready's Echo, Golden Spikes, Cosmic, Spark Candle, Tomcito, Deputyville and Fast Talking. I'd say CD is making a big class jump in the Belmont.
Didn't Tomcito get up for 3rd in Big Brown's Florida Derby?


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