You rate Z Humor higher than Pyro? Was it that one-paced stretch run in the Illinois Derby that convinced you? Or maybe his no-show at Tampa and Gulfstream?

The only one from your list who there's even a decent argument about being better than Pyro is Colonel John in my opinion. Cool Coal Man? He'll be exposed Saturday.

NT

sorry but i keep wanting to add more... on top of what i already said... now instead of him being that sneaky wise guy horse, that he looked like before the wood... now instead of him being 10 or 15-1, i think you get 25 or 30-1 on a mott/gomez.... i am telling you, this horse fires his best ever race in the derby.

exposed, how ?

look at cool coal mans pp's. what has he ever done wrong ?
all he does is run hard, and work bullets.

I had him at 10-1, but had a hard time figuring out the 4th choice in the wagering. It's a crazy Derby. But also, the Future Pool is more handicappers, the win pool at the Derby is more fans...

They've all been exposed. No one is an auto-toss. Except maybe Anak Nakal.

Cool Coal Man was too close to the pace in the Kentucky Jockey Club, so that race is forgivable (though it's not like that race was full of talent). He then beat Golden Spikes in an allowance and was the beneficiary of a pretty good trip in the FOY, which is not exactly coming back as a very strong race. He is an average horse in a below average crop in my opinion.

NT

Sneaky good? What the hell is sneaky good about being a closer that couldn't win a race that was finished in almost 41 seconds? For Christ's sake, they ran the last five furlongs in 1:06.28!

The three-quarter fraction on Saturday is irrelevant, because the first two fractions were ridiculously quick. Court Vision had everything his own way and ran like a rat.

Then you have good reason to make your favorite bet, a 2$ win on all.

NT

i would say golden spikes is a decent horse, compared to the others in this crop, and he came back and ran 2nd in a 500k grade 2, court vision came back to run a decent " in my opinion" third in the wood. i just think cool coal man is kinda the horse that everyone is forgetting about, and i think he runs giant this weekend.

If/when Recapturetheglory, War Pass and Big Brown go 22 seconds to the quarter, anyone from the back has a shot.

You're one of those people...

a rat who finished 3rd? durkin said was sputering and then seemed to surge a little close to the wire. why is the three-quarter fraction irrelevant ? because you say so ? 22.2-46-1.11. and whatever... why does that not matter ? teach me if i am wrong. i thought the first quarter was very fast, second slower, and third slower, so why does he have to close into that.... he will get much much faster ALL AROUND IN THE DERBY. wont he ?

there is other speed 2, i mean big brown might go 22 on his own, there will be others out there pushing.

you're kidding, right? pyro hasn't taken a step wrong since the bcj--and i won't bore you to tears with what the runners' up in the bcj have accomplished over the years.
i'd put pyro over any horse on your list. i'm not sure exactly why you think the above are 'better'-only cool coal man imo could prove differently this wknd. war pass has shown limitations-i don't think he can be successful at 10f based on what he did at 9, colonel has surface questions to answer, speculation notwithstanding, tale of ekati, z humor and court vision don't belong in the same discussion at this point.

i'd wait til post-bluegrass before settling on pyros odds. based on right now, yeah i think you're right. he wins saturday, he's the favorite on derby day imo.

I agree, but when has Keeneland produced the big effort? Their races are always tight on the wire. We might end-up learning very little about his development on Saturday if the Blue Grass mirrors last years.

The three-quarter fraction is irrelevant because after running :22.46 and :46.07, War Pass was already a sitting duck. He could've run 1:12 and change for three quarters and it would've made minimal difference.

The first quarter fraction for speed horses, especially in route races, is most often the telltale split for what he or she will be able to do late. After War Pass ran :22.46 around a turn neck and neck with a rabbit, Court Vision had all the help he needed.

A faster third quarter in the Derby isn't going to make the difference between an embarrassing performance like that and a win.

You honestly think Pyro wouldn't have won the Wood on Saturday?

i just think a win in the bluegrass will drive his odds down. a lot of people have short term memory loss, leaping from horse to horse from week to week as preps are run. pyro will be fresh in everyones minds.
i just wonder how much money recapturetheglory will take come derby day. yikes.