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-   -   Majestic Warrior (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=20287)

Bigsmc 02-24-2008 11:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SentToStud
I remember playing cards in Ann Arbor many years ago with Tony Cobitz. I think we shared a ride or two to DRC or Hazel too. Nice guy. LAst I remembered of him was seeing him on the Arlington in-house show about 20 years ago. Glad he did well.

He also did the Gulfstream in-house and evening replays back in the early 90's.

blackthroatedwind 02-24-2008 11:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SentToStud
I remember playing cards in Ann Arbor many years ago with Tony Cobitz. I think we shared a ride or two to DRC or Hazel too. Nice guy. LAst I remembered of him was seeing him on the Arlington in-house show about 20 years ago. Glad he did well.


Tony's great. He did the BC " Playing to Win " show with me.

I'm pretty harsh on people's opinions at the racetrack but I can honestly say that there are very few who's opinions I respect as much as Tony. Not only has he given me a boatload of winners over the years but he doesn't approach things from the normal perspectives and he constantly teaches me things I may well not have understood in the past. He's a good friend and a brilliant student of the game. He has my highest respect.

blackthroatedwind 02-24-2008 11:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bigsmc
He also did the Gulfstream in-house and evening replays back in the early 90's.


Calder, too, and maybe Arlington.

freddymo 02-24-2008 06:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski
He's 30-1 in Vegas, I'd offer that on $500. But this bet was only available to BBB. I don't need the money.


I will take the 500.00 wager at 30-1 and will forward the money in advance to whomever you deem appropiate on this board other then You lol

freddymo 02-24-2008 06:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bellsbendboy
BTW

Majestic Warrior is by A P Indy and inbred to both Secretariat and Buckpasser three of the preemininent stamina influences in the stud book. Horses get their class from their dams and generally emulate their sire with regards to surface, style and distance and precocity.

Predicting that MW is a sprinter is an opinion based on flawed logic.

The third dam was a router, the second dam won the Alciabades. Dream Supreme won three graded stakes at seven furlongs.

You should get a book or two on pedigree, it is an egregious hole in your game. BBB

MW may win the Derby and I like the colts chances. But your logic is pretty weak and you are tangling with folks who make a living knowing about horses.

I question theorically speaking, If we breed Personal Ensign to The Green Monkey you think TGM will have more influence on her offspring then she would have?

IMO you could bred Hasili to a frog and get a grade 3 winner!

freddymo 02-24-2008 06:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
I don't know that I would describe it as an " egregious " hole in my game, as unlike you I actually win despite my mediocre understanding of pedigree, but I certainly don't pretend to be an expert, also unlike you.

However, my good friend Tony Cobitz is an expert, and so I have turned to him on this important issue. In a nutshell.....he agrees with you from a pedigree standpoint and says that physically Majestic Warrior does not look like a sprinter. While his running style may prove a problem, as well as ten furlongs, he certainly feels this horse should get 9 furlongs.

Pardon me for going above you, but Tony has proven his worth at the racetrack for many years, to both myself and others, while I am still waiting, and hoping, for you to do that here. I haven't given up hope.


You know a lot more about pedigree's them BBB....I think it's always encouraging when a colt outruns his pedigree. An Indy winning early and short is encouraging no matter who the dam is..But that isn't to say he won't turn out actually what you guys think he will be.

easy goer 02-26-2008 12:08 AM

Stalker: 1: someone who walks with long stiff strides. 2: someone who stalks game. 3: someone who prowls or sneaks about; usually with unlawful intentions

bellsbendboy 03-03-2008 06:49 PM

Update
 
Majestic Warrior was entered in Saturday's Louisiana Derby drawing the nine hole with Gomez named. The son of A.P. Indy completed his major preparation with a half mile at Payson Park Sunday morning.

Reading between the lines, perhaps with blurred vision, the work "looks" very good, if not outstanding. The time given was 48.40 and it was a co-bullet with about a dozen or so working that distance. Only one other worker broke 50 seconds and a black type work is generally very good.

A more in depth analysis that calls for conclusion, and maybe an upgrade to outstanding is within reason. MW has been working steadily and a little longer each work with his last work 2/23 going six panels. Yesterday's half matches up with stablemate Duke Of Pearl and that one is entered also eligible later in the week. "Duke" is bred in the purple ( a half to Vision and Verse et. al.) and is quick in the mornings. Additionally "Duke" was entered blinkers ON and trainers usually work their horses in blinkers before running them in that equipment change as most jurisdictions require starter approval. Sophomore colts, especially those by Unbridled's Song can lay down some swift splits, first time hood and this work could be spot on.

By any measure MW faces a tough task Saturday with Pyro and Tale Of Ekati, two of a half dozen or so that can win the roses. Nevertheless in a year where several "big name" contenders have counterfeit ten panel pedigrees ( War Pass, El Gato Malo, etc.) MW remains, at least for now, one of the ones. BBB

blackthroatedwind 03-03-2008 07:03 PM

I thought only one horse can win the Derby ( though I hadn't accounted for a dead heat ).

Has there ever been a dead heat among a half dozen ( or so ) horses?

SentToStud 03-03-2008 07:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bellsbendboy
Majestic Warrior was entered in Saturday's Louisiana Derby drawing the nine hole with Gomez named. The son of A.P. Indy completed his major preparation with a half mile at Payson Park Sunday morning.

Reading between the lines, perhaps with blurred vision, the work "looks" very good, if not outstanding. The time given was 48.40 and it was a co-bullet with about a dozen or so working that distance. Only one other worker broke 50 seconds and a black type work is generally very good.

A more in depth analysis that calls for conclusion, and maybe an upgrade to outstanding is within reason. MW has been working steadily and a little longer each work with his last work 2/23 going six panels. Yesterday's half matches up with stablemate Duke Of Pearl and that one is entered also eligible later in the week. "Duke" is bred in the purple ( a half to Vision and Verse et. al.) and is quick in the mornings. Additionally "Duke" was entered blinkers ON and trainers usually work their horses in blinkers before running them in that equipment change as most jurisdictions require starter approval. Sophomore colts, especially those by Unbridled's Song can lay down some swift splits, first time hood and this work could be spot on.

By any measure MW faces a tough task Saturday with Pyro and Tale Of Ekati, two of a half dozen or so that can win the roses. Nevertheless in a year where several "big name" contenders have counterfeit ten panel pedigrees ( War Pass, El Gato Malo, etc.) MW remains, at least for now, one of the ones. BBB

Good analysis. Do you know that a good number of works at Payson, PBD and Palm Meadows are clocked and reported by trainers or their staff? Not that it matters much but if you drill down as hard as you seem to do on works, it may be something to think about. Aside from frequency and spacing, it's pretty impossible to glean much from works unless you see them yourself and are an outstanding judge of physical appearance.

philcski 03-04-2008 09:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SentToStud
Good analysis. Do you know that a good number of works at Payson, PBD and Palm Meadows are clocked and reported by trainers or their staff? Not that it matters much but if you drill down as hard as you seem to do on works, it may be something to think about. Aside from frequency and spacing, it's pretty impossible to glean much from works unless you see them yourself and are an outstanding judge of physical appearance.

Good analysis? He wrote a dissertation about a phuckin' 4 furlong work that was published in the DRF. MW may turn out to be a very good horse but there is NO chance he wins the La Derby. NONE.

Payson Dave 03-04-2008 09:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SentToStud
... Aside from frequency and spacing, it's pretty impossible to glean much from works unless you see them yourself .....

so true....especially Payson works...

SentToStud 03-04-2008 10:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski
Good analysis? He wrote a dissertation about a phuckin' 4 furlong work that was published in the DRF. MW may turn out to be a very good horse but there is NO chance he wins the La Derby. NONE.

:cool:

A bit tongue in cheek. I'm still anxious to hear BBBs account of how MW hot-walked after the work.

blackthroatedwind 03-04-2008 10:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SentToStud
:cool:

A bit tongue in cheek. I'm still anxious to hear BBBs account of how MW hot-walked after the work.


You caught Phil of guard......ya know, being that you're usually soooooooo serious.

philcski 03-04-2008 10:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
You caught Phil of guard......ya know, being that you're usually soooooooo serious.

Quote:

Originally Posted by SentToStud
:cool:

A bit tongue in cheek. I'm still anxious to hear BBBs account of how MW hot-walked after the work.


Well done. Ya got me. :)

blackthroatedwind 03-08-2008 10:00 PM

Yeah, he sure didn't look like a closing sprinter today.

Coach Pants 03-09-2008 05:19 PM

Well he didn't have the best of trips...but that's still no excuse for the lack of heart down the stretch. He looks like a grade III horse...maybe II since the division is so weak.

jcs11204 03-09-2008 07:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Coach Pants
Well he didn't have the best of trips...but that's still no excuse for the lack of heart down the stretch. He looks like a grade III horse...maybe II since the division is so weak.

i liked the comeback, strong middle move, then flat... its ok.. next race he fires huge

Hickory Hill Hoff 03-09-2008 07:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jcs11204
i liked the comeback, strong middle move, then flat... its ok.. next race he fires huge

we'll see, I have my doubts though.


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