Agreed. The second finisher in his race ran OK on Saturday.

He ran well to break his maiden around two turns at Churchill. His first two races back were at 6 and 7 furlongs which is hardly his optimal distance but he still managed a win and a 3rd place performance. I've already said the Super Derby was probably too quick to come back. If he runs fresh around two turns in the Mineshaft this weekend and doesn't run well then I'm with you on the Saratoga thing. Until then though I don't think we have adequate information to reach that conclusion based on 2yo form and some sprints. And besides, with the lack of G1s for older males, winning the Whitney and Woodward could be enough to win champion older male if a 3yo wins the Classic (see 2007) so there are a lot worse things than to be a Saratoga specialist.

Yep... good to have something to look forward to at this point.

My initial comments were an exaggeration. However, his non-Saratoga races are decidedly worse than his Saratoga races and until he proves otherwise I think he is very much a bet against.

jay you get a "be nice"..anyone that has a scientific opinion that its the CONNECTIONS betting on the last tick..has a vivid imagination.

If Z Fortune ever wins a major race without the benefit of an absolutely perfect trip it will be an upset of major performances. And, quite frankly, let's see him run a good race outside of Louisiana, where horses from the Assmussen barn are running one incredible race after another. Take a look at the LeComte again.....Z Humor had the trip of a lifetime. Is he a nice horse? Maybe, but for anyone to suggest he's been realistically impressive suggests a pretty cursory look at his actual performances. I would like to take the future book price on Icabad Crane against him in this summer's Albany at Saratoga.

The pedigree stuff is funny.

It's hard to take a stand against Asmussen down there.

Same goes for Amoss and Autrey. Seems like those guys could cure cancer if they were doctors.

quote dahoss :
"Despite what you are going to think, I'm really not trying to give you a hard time, but I really don't get this. Z Fortune has been the most impressive horse you have seen on dirt so far? WHat about War Pass?"
This isn't a smartass answer even though you may think it is , but put 2 and 2 together. I didn't mention the horse you mentioned, and I plan to make money on that horse when he loses his first race.

quote dahoss:"I am also thrown off by the pedigree stuff. You dislike it a lot and your reasoning is that horses "like that" fold when the class is at it's highest. Do progeny of Siphon get into stakes races and realize who their daddy is and get slower? Siphons are prone to cheap speed? Seems like a lot of throwing crap on the wall and seeing how much will stick."
Not so much that a siphon will fold (although in general they are kind of mediocre turf sprinters or cheap route speed/mudders) , but that a horse who is moved up by a trainer usually folds at the higher classes. Zfortune is a good Siphon. He cost 4x his sire avg. He was the top siphon price @ 80k. With that Asmussen bridle and the heavily muscled frame he almost looks like a gray Curlin. And right now Asmussen has Zfortune looking like a superhorse. He hasn't shown any weakness yet. Maybe later in the prep season when he goes 9 furlongs, we get to look for signs of stress or weakness. Not convinced that he can rate and win at 10 furlongs, but hasn't shown a weakness yet. He has a good chance of winning the Risen Star.

Visionaire is available on Bodog at 70-1..... Just put down 25 on him

I seem to remember trying to convince people of this BEFORE the Super Derby, and everybody told me I was crazy and that the horse couldn't lose.

The more people that disagree the more likely you are to be right.

GRASSHOPPER is a very talented individual who wiil act on any surface at any track. True the paper implies that his races at Saratoga were better than his others, and they were, but this is one serious colt.

In the Travers he caught the big horse while stretching and picking up MAJOR weight and it was a very humid day. Shipped to CD, then another humid day in Shreveport took a bunch out of him. He has a good chance to get an eclipse this year although he looks plenty short Saturday. BBB

Not that his race on the inner at Aqueduct means much but that just happened to be a perfect trip as well (free and clear through slow fractions on speed-favoring track).

I imagine he'll be exposed this week and is probably not even the best Z pointing to the Derby.

As far as Albany future odds, you just wait to see The Truffle Man go tomorrow, he will vault to the head of the class. I'm gonna see if TheGreek still has him at 40-1.

NT

Considering that this horse has not yet won a stakes race, I think you might be a bit ahead of yourself here.

Grasshopper isn't as good as the public thinks he was vs. SS.
Grasshopper also didn't run as poorly as the public thinks in the Super Derby.

He is a nice horse. He hasn't shown that he is some kind of division leader at all yet, but hey he should be a little stronger this year.
I don't expect him to win the Mineshaft, but he has a shot.

I'd be absolutely shocked if Grasshopper wins an eclipse this year. . .

No kidding. This could also go down as one of BBBs most quotables.

Have you ever been right before a race?

Here's a link to live odds for Future Pool 1:

http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2008/future-wager/odds

Our enlightened racing brethren have already put down a couple thousand dollars on Pyro, making him the 2nd fav among individual interests. I guess they couldn't wait 2 days to see how he does on Saturday.

--Dunbar