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-   -   ARISTIDES: Fabulous Strike 'comes out'.. (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=13764)

Cannon Shell 06-02-2007 06:44 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by King Glorious
It was very impressive but I agree with what Seigel said after the race that it was over at the start when Greg's Gold didn't get away well. That was the only chance we had to see how FS would respond to any pace pressure and it was gone. I've never seen this horse run before so I don't know if he always races on the lead but if he does, I don't know that there will be any more top level sprints that he'll be able to get away with a 22.31 opening quarter and be comfortably in front. Today's race was very nice though and he's obviously a very good horse.
The first 1/4 in 22.31 is a remarkably slow fraction at Churchill Downs for 6 furlongs, especially for that kind of race. Not disparaging the effort just pointing out how the race was over after that.

smuthg 06-02-2007 07:09 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Athletics005
Thats like saying Fog ran better because he beat Cougar Cat by 10 lengths while Strike only beat him by a couple. Neither can be used a comparison.
just asking a question; didn't know what Foggy's final time was.

on a side note, anybody think that Discreet Cat will end up in the Sprint?

blackthroatedwind 06-02-2007 07:15 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by smuthg

on a side note, anybody think that Discreet Cat will end up in the Sprint?
They would retire him before running in the sprint.

cmorioles 06-02-2007 07:31 PM
With Cougar Cat finishing within two lengths today, I have to think the figure is coming down a bit from the 120 level.

10 pnt move up 06-02-2007 07:49 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by cmorioles
With Cougar Cat finishing within two lengths today, I have to think the figure is coming down a bit from the 120 level.
I have no idea how fast the track was playing but could cougar cats effort be a case of being pulled along a bit and running a better figure then he has in the past. I remember a few years ago when the track record was set by kellys landing it was playing so fast that day, he got a 112, hard to believe it will be any lower then that.

cmorioles 06-02-2007 07:51 PM
This isn't harness racing.

10 pnt move up 06-02-2007 08:07 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by cmorioles
This isn't harness racing.
really, I totally believe horses can be pulled along a bit by better horses, does not happen all the time. I guess its hard for me to beleive that horse ran much lower then normal.

philcski 06-02-2007 08:22 PM
Extremely impressive. Been following this guy for a long time and I couldn't be happier.

Two predictions: (1) the Beyer will be a 113, and (2) he will be the BC Sprint favorite (assuming he gets there healthy.)

King Glorious 06-02-2007 08:26 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up
really, I totally believe horses can be pulled along a bit by better horses, does not happen all the time. I guess its hard for me to beleive that horse ran much lower then normal.
I just watched the replay in super slow-mo and I don't see any trailers attatched to Fabulous Strike so I don't think he pulled Cougar Cat along. I'll watch again though to be sure.

philcski 06-02-2007 08:34 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by King Glorious
I just watched the replay in super slow-mo and I don't see any trailers attatched to Fabulous Strike so I don't think he pulled Cougar Cat along. I'll watch again though to be sure.
Theory is it happens in Harness (not in thoroughbred), but perhaps Cougar Cat just ran the race of his life to be 2nd. Gaff ran about his race with no excuses and was beaten 7 lengths, which would be a 96 Beyer if you go with my number of a 113. If the number is adjusted down because Cougar Cat ran 3-4 points above his lifetime best it's a bad number.

10 pnt move up 06-02-2007 08:42 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by King Glorious
I just watched the replay in super slow-mo and I don't see any trailers attatched to Fabulous Strike so I don't think he pulled Cougar Cat along. I'll watch again though to be sure.
I see, thats your version of sarcasm. Good stuff.

cmorioles 06-02-2007 08:44 PM
I would guess around 112. I only said a bit off his previous 120s.

King Glorious 06-02-2007 08:46 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up
I see, thats your version of sarcasm. Good stuff.
Glad u saw the humor. No harm intended. All in good fun.

philcski 06-02-2007 08:51 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by cmorioles
I would guess around 112. I only said a bit off his previous 120s.
I was dumbfounded that they let a horse that fast get away with a first quarter of 22 2/5, which obviously affects the final time a tick or two, but to be realistic with the track playing as fast as it was today to earn a 120 he would have had to broken the track record by over a half a second.

cmorioles 06-02-2007 08:54 PM
Since speed figures take the track into account, his previous 120s say smashing the track record was within his realm.

As you say, the slow opening 1/4, and that is very slow for Churchill, probably contributed to the lower time more than anything else.

philcski 06-02-2007 08:59 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by cmorioles
Since speed figures take the track into account, his previous 120s say smashing the track record was within his realm.

As you say, the slow opening 1/4, and that is very slow for Churchill, probably contributed to the lower time more than anything else.
I know the "if it looks like he's doing it easily he isn't going to run faster if pressured" adage but all things considered, he might have been able to. That was an absolute waltz to go 1:07 3/5.

Speaking of track records, I was at Monmouth today and the horse that ran behind Unbridled Sidney in the turf sprint the day before the BC last year crushed the track record at 5.5F on turf, 1:00.81.

cmorioles 06-02-2007 09:02 PM
They haven't been running 5.5f on the turf at Mth very long at all. Mid meet last year maybe?

philcski 06-02-2007 09:05 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by cmorioles
They haven't been running 5.5f on the turf at Mth very long at all. Mid meet last year maybe?
Correct, since they installed the new turf course (I count about 15 runs over it.) Still, 1:00.81 for 5.5F on any surface is pretty damned fast... and I think it was Brad Thomas that said the 5F split time of :54.84 would have broken the old record as well.

cmorioles 06-03-2007 05:57 AM
115 Beyer.

golfer 06-03-2007 06:03 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by philcski
I was dumbfounded that they let a horse that fast get away with a first quarter of 22 2/5, which obviously affects the final time a tick or two, but to be realistic with the track playing as fast as it was today to earn a 120 he would have had to broken the track record by over a half a second.
I think the slow first quarter is what allowed Cougar Cat to hang in for 2nd money.


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