something like that I guess.

wherever morty shows up is his own deal...

There is a horse named Top This and That that ran 5th in his debut in a $62,500 Miaden claiming race. I liked the way the horse ran, so we made the people an offer for the horse. They accepted the offer and the deal was done, pending the horse passing our vet. Our vet examined the horse and took some x-rays. He told us that the horse was a mess and that the horse would never last. The horse had a bad knee and had a bad chip in a hock. So we didn't end up buying the horse.

The horse has run 21 times since then and has made around $300,000 or so. That doesn't mean that the vet gave us "terrible information". You're not going to be right all the time about predicting which horses will last and which horses won't. All you can do is make an educated guess.

So I think it's ridiculous to give Kentuckyrosesinmay a hard time for thinking that Street Sense would not be around come Derby time. This game is very humbling and even the veterinarians are wrong all the time. To give you another example, a friend of mine owned a horse and the vet told him that the horse was very unsound and would never make it to the races. So my friend ended up selling the horse cheap. Not only did the horse make it to the races, but the horse has run 27 times and is stakes placed. Nobody is going to be right all the time.

Anyway, Jessica ended up picking Street Sense to win the Derby. I think that more than makes for her thinking that the horse would not make the race a couple of months ago. She saw that Nafzger had the horse going good again and she picked the horse to win the race.

Nobiz is a tail male descendant of Ribot. His dam is a daughter of Cat. Surely you don't think that any horse with SC in his breeding, anywhere is destined to not train on?

The top 5 worked on the CD surface. The top 2 had multiple works. The winner was stabled at CD.

Horses adjust stride to a certain degree to get traction. They adjust stride to get speed or to get distance.

It seems more trainers would work them on the track and give them time on the track so the horse can adjust. Larry Jones was smart enough to do that. Tagg wasn't.

Neither was Todd Pletcher. So much for his call that poly is great to work over but he'd rather race on dirt. If he's going to race on dirt he better give his horses some time on the dirt to adjust. I bet he will next year.

The best horses won. What other horses in the race figured to be close to a 110 BSF? NONE. No Biz, Pletchers horses, O'Neils horses, none of them figured to jump up and run that type of race. Its lame to imply that the only missing ingredient was a final workout at Churchill. Exactly how much does that move up a horse anyway?

I agree. He is a really nice horse but not of the caliber of a Street Sense, Hard Spun or Curlin. He is too slow.

style style style
 

His Remsen was a really nice race at 9f. Nobiz at 2yo in the Remsen -Better than anything he or Scat Daddy has done at 9f since.

Then they went to the Holy Bull (mile).
Wasn't a ton of pace so C Vel takes Nobiz to the front and wires the field.
Wasn't necessarily a terrible decision... the pace numbers looked ok, he didn't go too fast early, he still came home at the mile distance pretty fast...

Then they go to the FOY(9f)

Stormello "breaks like a quarter horse" , and sets an impossible pace. Nobiz's Remsen form would have had him well off the pace and crushing the rabbit in the stretch. Yet instead of that nice style , Nobiz chases the pace. Nobiz gets sucked right into Stormello's rabid pace. No style he tires in the stretch he runs crazy trying to keep that pace...

Now the quick "fix" in time for the derby rush
Blinkers (move him up even MORE????)



They just need to get Nobiz back to his Remsen form and they have a top horse. Good stamina in the pedigree, hes a great animal physically. What he is not is a sprinter, and he is not a wire-to-wire type.

How does Tagg win all these turf races and he has Nobiz so screwed up from where he was at 2? Or is Nobiz really that rank that he doesn't rate at all anymore?

Thanks...this is more what I was looking for.

Not a huge fan of bris pace numbers but they tell the general story here.
Holy Bull was only 8f so it was deceptive. Also his pace was a tiny bit harder in the FOY and he came Home better than just 1 point in the Wood , but basically yes. He went from a router to a miler somewhere between the Remsen and now. His pedigree says the Belmont would be no problem, so its physical or a style issue or the horse is just untrainable...

E1 E2 .Late Pace
98 113 86 WOOD
96 110 85 FOY
85 99 104 HOLY BULL
85 91 98 REMSEN

well , Baffert did say that Nobiz could win the derby if he trained him...:)

Since you posted those, I'll just add that its those late pace numbers in his two turn routes that made me consider him a toss-out for the derby. The only quality number was at the one turn distance. The Derby winner should show something strong in the late pace number when going 9F, as well as overall speed. The Remson was okay for 2yo's, but not overpowering. It was acheived only because of softer numbers on the first two calls.

FYI, I am a huge fan of bris numbers for this reason.

well he came home from a 1:36mile (just looking at 5ths here on the drf) .6 seconds faster as a 2YO in the Remsen than his final derby prep the Wood.

Soft numbers on the first two calls is something to strive for as a trainer and jockey with a horse like Nobiz.

It was pretty clear after the Wood that Nobiz was going to flatten out by the time the stretch run came about in the Derby.