Sorry, his index was over 4.00. Isn't that another barometer?

There is no real argument to it...despite the huge success that RAN has had as the sire line for Derby winners, he has had only one horse (Barbaro) win the Derby with the dam sire-line tracing to him...this despite the huge number of successful broodmare sires he's produced. I don't believe in curses...that's just the name given to this fact...but it is what it is! If you want to examine possible reasons, I refer to the research done regarding the LH+ theories and the theories that contend that a horse will get speed from sire and stamina from dam...if that is true, and I believe it is, then a "B" CDR like RAN would figure to be better suited in the sire line for distance racing.

I stopped using the 4.00/1.00 guidelines a few years ago, Dr Roman himself has stated that due to recent breeding practices, those numbers are relatively weak...I do look at the points in DP however.

Yes, but Giacomo's was a 4.33 and he won.

Here are this year's dual qualifiers:

Any Given Saturday
Circular Quay
Great Hunter
Liquidity
Nobiz
Scat Daddy
Stormello
Street Sense

Ditto, Somer.

A Dual Qualifier hasn't won since like 1997.

Yep... figured I'd post them while we were on the topic, though. I hope a dual qualifier wins this year. :cool:

Gee, I wonder who? :p

I have no earthly idea! Haha

Simple three preps before the derby period.... two preps for the both you mention... The last 1/8th will be their brick wall.

You want to look at foundation look at someone like Scat Daddy. Dual grade 1 winner, two 1 1/8 mile preps at 1:49. Who else can claim that? Horse is following the same path as Barbaro and getting totally ignored.

If you think the winner is coming off a weak prep (Bluegrass & an 8 week layoff) as Street Sense & Circular Quay are, please let me be your betting window May 5th.

Java OUT

I would certainly prefer for my selections to have three or (gasp!) more preps before the Derby, but does it really make sense to toss a horse just becuase they don't? Sunny's Halo did okay with only two preps. If SS or CQ had run in say....the Count Fleet this winter against the mighty Pink Viper....would that really help their respective Derby chances that much all these weeks later?
That just seems like a strange argument to me.

Once again...the angles should be viewed as additional info, they don't replace handicapping! If you really like a horse, you should stick with him/her...just be aware of the angle for perspective (ie: if you think Curlin is a super horse then going against some of the strongest angles won't bother you...otherwise?)

I won't be using simple mechanical rules (less than three preps can't win the derby). Ideally whatever horse I back in the derby would have three preps as a 3YO.

Also, I put no stock in a statement like "horse is following the same path as Barbaro". Guess what? Scat Daddy is not Barbaro. Scat Daddy is not infused with any special magic because he came from the Florida preps. I guess you went all in last year with Lawyer Ron cause he was following the Smarty Jones path?

Why do you call the Blue Grass a weak prep? Isn't it customary to determine if the prep was strong or weak by watching what happens to the horses the next time they race? I know it was an oddly run race but I think its too early to call it weak.

I agree Joe...last years favorite (SNS) went off at just over 5-1 and I don't think enough horses this year have done much to seperate themselves to justify a 5-1 third choice.

and I don't know how you guys keep up with all this Dosage stuff. This game is hard enough as it is...the last thing I need is more #'s like those running through my head while watching replays and capping.

totally agree AJ. you are right on point. to continue on your point if I may Barbaro didn't "follow" any path last year did he??? geez, everyone wants to look at 4 or 5 criteria and presto---a derby winner. Isn't part of the fun using our heads and handicapping race shape, speed dynamics, post positions, past performances, trainer angles, etc, etc, etc...not just falling in love with "trends" or "followed paths." also, i am a firm believer that we will find the bluegrass and the tampa bay derby to be THE 2 key preps this year....from that you can see the exacta I like....BUT i may change my opinion as the day gets closer due to weather, workouts, etc....oh, wait a minute that might not be black and white enough......haha

JG...nevermind :confused:

Obviously.
It just doesn't seem that Java is using them in the way you suggest, and is rather using the 3-prep angle as rule rather than an "angle."
I think you and I somer, are saying the same thing.

I didn't read the whole thread, so I don't know if this is a joke....if it is...it's not funny....if it's not...you can't be serious.....Now I know I'm dating myself here, but I remember when I was a little guy watching the Dean Martin Celebrity roasts and there was a guy that played a drunk on those things named Foster Brooks....Well I'd rather he call the Derby than Battaglia.....hopefully there is someone on this board that knows who Foster Brooks was.....

a one note comedian.

carrot top for the 60's.

am i close?