Derby Trail Forums - BSF 'Doldrums': Figure Dives

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- - BSF 'Doldrums': Figure Dives (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=10865)

Quote:

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

The thing is, he is not even a good troll, his technique is horrible.
He starts out by giving away his identity.
I think he flunked out of troll school.

I've always been fond of the multiple handle trolls. This guy is failing at it miserably, and that is hilarious to me.

Quote:

Originally Posted by cmorioles

Now I am sorry I brought this back up. Where did that guy come from?

Family Fued #1 Answer - From under a bridge

Quote:

Originally Posted by cmorioles

I can't help but bring this old thread back up. Now that Sports Town just romped, should the Whirlaway be re-reevaluated?

I don't think the Whirlaway should have been downgraded in the first place. The only time a fig should be changed is if someone makes a clear arithmetic blunder. Saying it was "tough to get a fig on that race" doesn't cut it. If they are having trouble making the fig because the variant is changing or whatever, then stick an asterisk next to the fig. But don't look at how the horse runs a month later to evaluate how it ran way back then.

--Dunbar

I don't blame them for correcting a mistake Dunbar.

I obviously disagreed with the original figure, and wrote the following in a post on this website just days after the race...and a good month before the figure was corrected.

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Summer Doldrums is bred to thrive over a distance of ground.

His sire Street Cry won the 1 1/4 mile Dubai World Cup in supreme fashion over tough stablemate Sakhee.

His dam sire, Unacounted For, was beaten just one length by Cigar, at level weights, in the 1995 Jockey Club Gold Cup at 1 1/4 miles. Cigar was a perfect 10-for-10 that season, and no one got closer to him all year than Unaccounted For did that day.

The female family is laced with sprinter/miler types---and is a nice injection of speed into the pedigree.

I don't pay any attention to dosage at all. This horse really has stepped his game up with the added distance....however, I have a hard time believing he's as good as that 106 Beyer suggests.

Each of the top four finishers in the Whirlaway Stakes had double digit new career tops---and with only one other route race on the AQU card, and a widely talked about rail bias---there are a lot of fluky things surrounding the race from a figure making standpoint.

Enough of this...who the heck was banned so I can put a name on all the inuendos?

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I don't blame them either, though I think they overdid it. They corrected the figure because a few horses didn't immediately run back to the number.

However, Sports Town, in his very next dirt race, probably ran near or even better than his original figure when smashing the small stakes yesterday I would think. This is exactly what I said could happen when they tinkered with the number in the first place. Does this mean now they should change it back? Somewhere in the middle? Leave it where it is?

It is very dangerous to start playing with numbers based on what rapidly changing, inconsistent 3yos are running in the first half of the year. That was my point all along.

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

DrugS, I wouldn't have minded it as much if they, like you, had figured it out BEFORE the horse ran again. I'm just extremely wary of using new data to backfit previous results. (a la dosage)

If the figure was wrong, why wait a month to correct it? If the figure was shaky to start with, then create some mechanism to denote that it's shaky. I suggest the asterisk.

--Dunbar